Storms & Convective Discussion

[johnholmes]

JOHN. I would LOVE to sort out my address etc. Sorry, can't do it. Need help. Please be patient till a techie calls in.

The Bowland Fells are just north of the Ribble, ie the fells north of Clitheroe. I'm at 550ft at the extreme SW corner with open views. Postcide PR3. 12 miles from Preston.

Meanwhile that big thundercloud that came across from Manchester way is now banging approx over Skipton, eastwards from here. Looking black to south of here also.

tks for coming back Rainy-what help is it you need-I'm not much good but any member of the team, those with colours byt their name will be pleased to help you?

enjoy your storms in east Lancs

[Cloud 10]

i dont think wev'e had the last of this today.

its bouncing down,and loads of places still flooded

Yes,still plenty of life in these showers/storms and moving very slowly as well.

Lovely pics there cloud 10!

Thanks,i only had the camera on my phone but still shows the depth of the cloud well.

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM Model showing a lot of cape here tomorrow evening with high precipitation so probably storms.

[JamieUK]

Any chance of that storm over northern France making it over to us and inland?

Some real nice looking storms in the N/E.

[Nick F]

Not suprising that storms were numerous across N and NE England and SE Scotland this afternoon, the 12z Abermarle (NE England) radiosonde ascent was rather unstable - with CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg, cloud tops to over 35,000ft and PWAT values high at 37mm too:

[SteveB]

Just seen the national and local forcast's.

Looks like my area is hit and miss on the event tomorrow, with places further South & West getting heavy thundery rain, while this area could get showers in the afternoon.

As alway's, it's a case of seeing what happens at the time.

[Cloud 10]

Not suprising that storms were numerous across N and NE England and SE Scotland this afternoon, the 12z Abermarle (NE England) radiosonde ascent was rather unstable - with CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg, cloud tops to over 35,000ft and PWAT values high at 37mm too:

Just noticed that the temperature in newcastle is 23c with a dewpoint of 20c,is this an unusually high dewpoint?

[leightonw890]

Just seen the national and local forcast's.

Looks like my area is hit and miss on the event tomorrow, with places further South & West getting heavy thundery rain, while this area could get showers in the afternoon.

As alway's, it's a case of seeing what happens at the time.

Maybe, but the front seams as if it's going to be quite slow moving, therefore giving your area time to heat up, and as the front approaches your area, it will cause significant updrafts. It's a waiting game but one i'm really looking forward to!

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep, was looking at that too, any precip which affects us tomorrow I'm guessing will be convective rather than frontal. Our local weather forecaster said that tomorrow will be a degree up on todays temps meaning 30-31C. Bring on the heat!!! Bring on the storms!!!!

28th July had temperatures around 30c and look what that brought us-about 5 hours of lightning and the best storm in years for here!

[Cheese Rice]

Just noticed that the temperature in newcastle is 23c with a dewpoint of 20c,is this an unusually high dewpoint?

I dont think so really, i mean if its raining then that would be normal.

the temp here is currentley 28.c with a dp of 18.c so quite close too

[Nick F]

Just noticed that the temperature in newcastle is 23c with a dewpoint of 20c,is this an unusually high dewpoint?

Yes, pretty high for the NE I'd say and probably doesn't occurr too often that far north. Conversely the dew points are only arund 14-15C in the SE yet the air temp is knocking around in the high 20s - so air alot drier here.

[ANYWEATHER]

As always a hard one to call when forecasting thunderstorms but this is my main risk map for tomorrow [Thursday] A Waving front already in west giving torrential rain for some in that area as that front moves very slowly east it will dis-stabalize the very warm ,moist airmass over the bulk of the uk. Probably a fairly strong cap over the central and eastern areas [at first]as very warm moist air is sitting above lowlevel warmth and moisture. Another hot day over this risk area ,well into the eighties, so that strong surface heating should be more than adequate to force storms to form.....Plenty of cape available at that time of day as well so that is basically my risk area for now...perhaps im wrong?.....looking foreward to Nicks thoughts at some point along with others

[Alex95]

Thunder coming from my west again, and suddenly it is quite frequent.

[maidstone weather]

Yes, pretty high for the NE I'd say and probably doesn't occurr too often that far north. Conversely the dew points are only arund 14-15C in the SE yet the air temp is knocking around in the high 20s - so air alot drier here.

I did wonder that during my lunch break, it didn't feel quite so uncomfortable as yesterday's lunch break, but that might've been due to a slightly increased breeze? :lol:

[Stuart]

Think i am hearing thunder the storms moveing so slowly to my area :lol:

Edited July 1, 2009 by Stuart

[CaptainHappy]

After a horrible hot day at work, while gas cutting lol, I am looking to the south in France and I have to say im a little more optomistic. They are just bursting into life in the space of even an hour and really looking good. Fingers crossed for anyone along ths outh coast!

[Cheese Rice]

As always a hard one to call when forecasting thunderstorms but this is my main risk map for tomorrow [Thursday] A Waving front already in west giving torrential rain for some in that area as that front moves very slowly east it will dis-stabalize the very warm ,moist airmass over the bulk of the uk. Probably a fairly strong cap over the central and eastern areas [at first]as very warm moist air is sitting above lowlevel warmth and moisture. Another hot day over this risk area ,well into the eighties, so that strong surface heating should be more than adequate to force storms to form.....Plenty of cape available at that time of day as well so that is basically my risk area for now...perhaps im wrong?.....looking foreward to Nicks thoughts at some point along with others

Too bad Leeds is unlikley to be affected, hope your wrong :lol:

[leightonw890]

After a horrible hot day at work, while gas cutting lol, I am looking to the south in France and I have to say im a little more optomistic. They are just bursting into life in the space of even an hour and really looking good. Fingers crossed for anyone along ths outh coast!

Sat24 showing those cells literally exploding in the last 45mins or so. don't think they will manage to cross the channel still with their intensity, but you never know!

[Costa Del Fal]

Oh man that day was unbelievable! Even though I didn't get hit dead on, the storms in the evening had some of the darkest Cbs I've seen in years! The CGs looked dangerous and quite honestly glad the storms wern't overhead :lol:

It was overhead here-was an amazing night.

[ANYWEATHER]

Too bad Leeds is unlikley to be affected, hope your wrong :lol:

The kind folk that we are ,we will send you the left overs! :lol: :lol: :lol: Anyway im sure and hoping you will get something....Best of Luck..[i certainly could do with it!]

[Paul Sherman]

Yes, pretty high for the NE I'd say and probably doesn't occurr too often that far north. Conversely the dew points are only arund 14-15C in the SE yet the air temp is knocking around in the high 20s - so air alot drier here.

Not everyone Nick

Top temp around the Southend area today was 21c and Shoeburyness did not get above 19c all day, looking east now there is a Bank of either Thick Fog or Cloud about to envelop the SE Essex area, so any of you further West into the London area be prepared for Low cloud tomorrow morning if the wind dont shift

Paul S

Not a bad little MCS Over in Froggieland :lol:

[Cheese Rice]

The kind folk that we are ,we will send you the left overs! :lol: :lol: Anyway im sure and hoping you will get something....Best of Luck..[i certainly could do with it!] :lol:

Thanks, fortunantley Leeds has had its fair share of storms this year, youll probs get some storms tmrw, you get the storms down south in summer and up north we get all the snow in winter, it all works out :lol: .

.............................

Like the new graphics used for storms, looks cool .

[Ian Fergusson]

Just seen the national and local forcast's.

Looks like my area is hit and miss on the event tomorrow, with places further South & West getting heavy thundery rain, while this area could get showers in the afternoon.

As alway's, it's a case of seeing what happens at the time.

Indeed so, Steve, a definite case of wait and see. But yes, the latest MO's (NAE) output suggests the focus being a tad further westwards, through the likes of Taunton northwards to the Bristol Channel (plus anywhere west of here during the morning; e.g., Exmoor, N Devon etc), before it all shifts north and somewhat eastwards, weakening as the upper feature over-runs. But there's been some considerable run-to-run variance in the regional detail, plus GFS is still eager to beef-up the collective totals beyond those indicated in the latest NAE..... all symptomatic of the problems in nailing this one down with any certainty, re the areal extent of any genuinely severe weather. It could be that you still get a real deluge in W-s-M; let's see what the next model output and high-res PPN prognosis offers. The risk indicated by the MO's regional advisory certainly remains valid.

Best

Ian

[Cheese Rice]

Not everyone Nick

Top temp around the Southend area today was 21c and Shoeburyness did not get above 19c all day, looking east now there is a Bank of either Thick Fog or Cloud about to envelop the SE Essex area, so any of you further West into the London area be prepared for Low cloud tomorrow morning if the wind dont shift

Paul S

Not a bad little MCS Over in Froggieland :lol:

Yeah plenty of heavy rain

[Andy Bown]

I don't think those storms over France will affect Dorset/Hampshire as some are hoping. I think they're attached the the long waving front so if anything will travel up into the far SW along the front.

Indeed so, Steve, a definite case of wait and see. But yes, the latest MO's (NAE) output suggests the focus being a tad further westwards, through the likes of Taunton northwards to the Bristol Channel (plus anywhere west of here during the morning; e.g., Exmoor, N Devon etc), before it all shifts north and somewhat eastwards, weakening as the upper feature over-runs. But there's been some considerable run-to-run variance in the regional detail, plus GFS is still eager to beef-up the collective totals beyond those indicated in the latest NAE..... all symptomatic of the problems in nailing this one down with any certainty, re the areal extent of any genuinely severe weather. It could be that you still get a real deluge in W-s-M; let's see what the next model output and high-res PPN prognosis offers. The risk indicated by the MO's regional advisory certainly remains valid.

BesIan

Welcome Ian, good to see a local forecaster posting. Any chance of getting Richard Angwin on here too :lol: , a number of us mention the Points West forecasts regularly - including earlier this afternoon.