Cold Spell Discussion

[charlton north-downs]

Can I just say this is a fantastic set up and as Teits says we may be facing the coldest period of weather probably since February 1991. If you were to look back at the charts then it was a slow build up to the main event . In all my weather watching years there is only been one other memorable December event and that was in 1981 so these charts are very rare . Unlike Feb 1991 which fizzled out quickly after the main event if the charts verify we will be looking at a much longer cold event.Patience is needed but the BBC early forecast this morning said by the end of the week very cold and snowy. We talk about weather of old as though it was continuously cold and snowy but of course it wasn't and if we could watch the models then as we can now , we would definitely be getting excited. Anyway on a personal note the high North Downs in Kent may well see sleet and snow before the main event as temps are lower than forecast.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Indeed, I don't know how many times people need to be told that you cannot predict PPN this far out (its 4-5days away) with any real accuracy. Wait until the day before!

and at the end of the day, it's not really the be all and end all is it?

[Big Innes Madori]

It stays cold for longer on the 6z, a nice little upgrade there. Second half of the coming week is now looking bitterly cold with some snow for the south and east but scotland could have blizzards later once the N'ly kicks in with small troughs enhancing the snow potential how lucky are we really, an easterly followed by a northerly

Just look at the differences in deep FI between the 00z-06z gfs, its laughable in a way but it follows the ecm idea closely.

Oh Frosty mate!

With talk like that you'll have me thinkink that we have been relocated to the USA

This cold period has been modeled fairly consistantly now for the last week and a half though, so well done to all you guy's who work tirelesly on looking at the possible outcome

Big Innes

[glasgow-guy]

Same as everyone else I would assume, do I have to name them!?? I'm just not getting hung up on each and every run and instead I am watching the general trends.

general trends seem to be going down in the chance of snow for Scotland in my opinion there is a chance of a northerly but no one wants to talk about a northerly on here for obvious reasons. at the moment this is a southerly event for the time being

[snowking]

Just to add good old Tomasz Schafernaker on BBC News 24 just showing the graphics with snow showers heading into the east for the end of the week

He did, however say there is a lot of uncertainty as to just how much snow will fall

A very exciting week ahead

SK

[Neilsouth]

National Forecast at 10.57 looked good on bbc weather

Biting easterly winds picking up as the week goes on , with snow shown from scotland right down the east coast to south east england. He said there will be some snow but amounts are open to debate , will keep you updated nearer the time.

Sweet

[glasgow-guy]

The biggest thing to take away from the models just now is that HP is building over Greenland and not the all too often familiar polar vortex swirling away for 3 months. There might not be a huge blizzard forecast for Tuesday, but let's not be greedy

no I totally agree i got hung up there for a bit on the models its still hard trying to pick through information on the model output thread where their is a se discussion going on daily i am learning about model reading but its a uphill struggle and will be for a good while

[tinybill]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20091213/tuk-britain-braced-for-big-freeze-and-sn-45dbed5.html

cant wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Snowyowl9]

This is what we want when an easterly comes a very snow covered russia,to get the cold air colder.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/12_35.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/102_35.gif

[pyrotech]

BBC finally showing snow from mid week. That is a real positive as they have far more data than us and do not like to worry public unless they get sure of snow.

He said biting cold easterly from Wednsday and ys some snow, how much is still up for debate so stay tuned for the latest.

So Meto have briefed the BBc forecasters on the latest changes on UKMO so they must think the update is more likely.

So people good luck, hope we all get some lamppost watching and some white stuff on the ground over the next week.

Country file will be an interesting watch later today and be interesting to see any changes on the Meto LRF when it comes out sometime this hour

i must be too slow typing so many beat me to it ha ha

Edited December 13, 2009 by pyrotech

[dogs32]

BBC finally showing snow from mid week. That is a real positive as they have far more data than us and do not like to worry public unless they get sure of snow.

He said biting cold easterly from Wednsday and ys some snow, how much is still up for debate so stay tuned for the latest.

So Meto have briefed the BBc forecasters on the latest changes on UKMO so they must think the update is more likely.

So people good luck, hope we all get some lamppost watching and some white stuff on the ground over the next week.

Country file will be an interesting watch later today and be interesting to see any changes on the Meto LRF when it comes out sometime this hour

i must be too slow typing so many beat me to it ha ha

thanks for that..I almost gave up..

Just we dont know how much at present thats the problem now...lol

but it looks positive again

[tinybill]

This is what we want when an easterly comes a very snow covered russia,to get the cold air colder.

http://www2.wetter3....6_UTC/12_35.gif

http://www2.wetter3...._UTC/102_35.gif

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/english/frames/kelikamerat-frame.html

i know its a bit off topic lapland in day light -12

[glasgow-guy]

In winter time it's almost not worth bothering with the model discussion thread, there's so much rubbish posted into it. It's hard to pick out who is talking sense and who is talking nonsense. The forecasters blog are much better. John Holmes' blog is a good starting point, he tends to explain things clearly.

thanks sorry if it sounded if i was sniping at you earlier i wasn't. god this place proves the British are obsess with the weather

[kold weather]

Still some real uncertainty about the easterly looking at the models this morning, so the easterly airflow isn't in the bag yet until we some sort of agreement between the models. The GFS is far more keen on a ESE wind and to some extent the UKMO does back it up as well, the difference comes on Friday when the GFS sinks the high, the UKMO and ECM keep an easterly flow which would be more condusive to snowfall.

So still some uncertainty at this stage, the one thing that does look more likely though is a very cold day for Thursday and probably Friday as well, maxes going to really struggle to get above 1-2C.

[glasgow-guy]

100% didn't take it that way G-G!!! You still sunny over there? Fog if anything is getting thicker and believe it or not the temp was fallen since 9am Even if the forecast cold turns out to be an illusion I will still remember Dec 2009 for a long time to come: as the foggy month

actually bad news fog dropping down again and same as you still below freezing haven't seen the campsies for the past couple of days

Edited December 13, 2009 by glasgow-guy

[Paul Sherman]

Latest shower to hit the Southend area was a mixture of Graupel and Sleet! Feeling pretty raw outside with winds from the NE

Paul S

[dogs32]

lol...I had to post this from someone from the Model Thread..

Ramp or reality..

or Possability should I say

Am absolutely shaking in shock here at the charts particularly the ECM which now has to be considered the winner, anyone under the age of about 35 is going to see a snowfest they have never seen in their lifetime with chronic drifts and several feet of lying snow, most of the north will have 3-4ft of lying snow with 20-30ft drifts by this time next weekend when the ECM comes off, not so good down here but even I am quite confident of 4 or 5 inches

This event from Thursday onwards is goiing to absolutely bring the country to its knees and is reliable timeframe now.

I am 31 and have never seen anything like this

Hope this comes off

lol...long way off

Edited December 13, 2009 by dogs32

[James M]

lol...I had to post this from someone from the Model Thread..

Ramp or reality..

or Possability should I say

Am absolutely shaking in shock here at the charts particularly the ECM which now has to be considered the winner, anyone under the age of about 35 is going to see a snowfest they have never seen in their lifetime with chronic drifts and several feet of lying snow, most of the north will have 3-4ft of lying snow with 20-30ft drifts by this time next weekend when the ECM comes off, not so good down here but even I am quite confident of 4 or 5 inches

This event from Thursday onwards is goiing to absolutely bring the country to its knees and is reliable timeframe now.

I am 31 and have never seen anything like this

Hope this comes off :)

lol that's a bit extreme, I'll believe it when I see it

Edited December 13, 2009 by James M

[glasgow-guy]

lol...I had to post this from someone from the Model Thread..

Ramp or reality..

or Possability should I say

Am absolutely shaking in shock here at the charts particularly the ECM which now has to be considered the winner, anyone under the age of about 35 is going to see a snowfest they have never seen in their lifetime with chronic drifts and several feet of lying snow, most of the north will have 3-4ft of lying snow with 20-30ft drifts by this time next weekend when the ECM comes off, not so good down here but even I am quite confident of 4 or 5 inches

This event from Thursday onwards is goiing to absolutely bring the country to its knees and is reliable timeframe now.

I am 31 and have never seen anything like this

Hope this comes off :)

lol...long way off

yes i read it is a tad over the top

[SMU]

Latest shower to hit the Southend area was a mixture of Graupel and Sleet! Feeling pretty raw outside with winds from the NE

Paul S

Hey Paul- any reports from the hills of Kent..?- I guess wrotham & bluebell must be getting some wintryness by now..

S

[i luv snow]

Of course no disrespect meant, but the post from John Snow is way OTT and he has got a little caught up, it is looking cold and wintry for sure, the potential is there for a snowy spell, but unlike cold;significant snow is far from nailed on - a few more runs and maybe this will be different. In any case, anywhere away from the highest mountain peaks should not be expecting 4 feet of the white stuff!!!

Edited December 13, 2009 by i luv snow

[kold weather]

I'm personally hoping the UKMO is right and we do get the easterly shot that lasts a while, since I'm heading back to good ole Essex again today would be nice to see some decent snowfall given I somewhat missed the worst of it in Feb.

Thats a good sign Paul, I suspect most showers from now on will be a wintry mix, snow could well be falling on the hills though during the overnight hours, wouldn't shock me at all if that was the case.

[Backtrack]

Colder air near Christmas is more to watch than this pathetic easterly.

A northerly could put us all in with a white christmas.

[i luv snow]

Kold I'm quietly confident that here in EA we are going to do fairly well out of a spell like this, we tend to do well from N and E, as well as NE - and even in breakdown situations, so Im certainly looking forward to later in the week/next weekend 'whatever' happens. A good time to return to these here parts I would say

[Snowstorm1]

SNOW ! on countryfile forcast for weekahead ! it had the snow over me just! ne england come on son!