Cold Spell Discussion

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Anybody noticed how badly wrong Ian Brown's forecast is AGAIN? , the last forecast was wrong now this is!. Nothing about high pressures early in the month or mid , Cold weather , easterly winds ! :unsure:

lol If i had issued that forecast and esp after Jans events id just holf my hands up and say im not actually

as good at lrf's as i thought.After having this MW theory rammed down my throat for years i have to say

i am thorougly enjoying this theory being blown to bits.

sorry Ian.

[MR EXTREMES]

Hmmm i'm not impressed now. I knew I shouldn't have let the GFS lead me on a merry dance down the road of disapointment.

From what looked like a potent Easterly has now turned into a weak affair with a small chance of snow in the next 4-5 days but nothing to get too excited about.

well i dont know what forecast your looking at lol.

it looks good for now and winter.

im guilty also of claiming wild warm winters.

how wrong am i but always felt christmas pudding could switch to blast from the past tbh.

my thoughts on winter where based on el nino and its brillant that im proven wrong so far.

and i hope all those that see a cold winter are right because i wanna snow party lol.:unsure:

Edited December 13, 2009 by badboy657

[Cheese Rice]

christmas pudding 1987-2009!

Please get rid of all those posts by Ian brown etc in your signature, it takes up loads of space and is a bit sad, get over it! We all make mistakes with forecasts, there is no need to rub it in.

[Backtrack]

lol....... some people get over excited

Excuse me? Feb 09 was marginal and gave me a foot of snow. I measured it with a tape measure. Why would i lie about a past event.

[weather eater]

My advice would be keep the crowing until later, this is still up in the air and it could still fizzle out to a damp squib, better not to make the same mistake as IB by having the inquest before the event actually happens.

[Nick L]

My advice would be keep the crowing until later, this is still up in the air and it could still fizzle out to a damp squib, better not to make the same mistake as IB by having the inquest before the event actually happens.

But if we are going to have an exceptionally mild December then there will have to be one hell of a collapse in the model predictions.

[MKN]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O5r5ggJXOY Not sure if this mornings country forcast been put up, but here it is anyway

[Solar Cycles]

lol If i had issued that forecast and esp after Jans events id just holf my hands up and say im not actually

as good at lrf's as i thought.After having this MW theory rammed down my throat for years i have to say

i am thorougly enjoying this theory being blown to bits.

sorry Ian.

I guess his eagerly awaited book, has now been put back a week or two!! :unsure:

[mettalfabrik]

metars for europe as far west as nancy-metz in france luxembourg and sarbrucken-stuttgart germany all showing light snow now

==================================================

ICAO : LFJL

Station Name : Metz-Nancy-Lorra

Time : 13 / 13:30Z

Temperature : 0.0°C / 32.0°F

Dew Point : -1.0°C / 30.2°F

RH : 93%

Wind : NE (40 degrees) at 9 mi/h

Pressure : 1019.0 mb

Sky Condition : Scattered clouds at 900ft, Broken clouds at 1500ft, Broken clouds at 2400ft

Weather : Light Snow

==================================================

==================================================

ICAO : ELLX

Station Name : Luxembourg (Aut)

Time : 13 / 13:20Z

Temperature : 1.0°C / 33.8°F

Dew Point : -5.0°C / 23.0°F

RH : 64%

Wind : ENE (60 degrees) at 15 mi/h

Pressure : 1017.9 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 2700ft, Scattered clouds at 5000ft

Weather : Light Snow

==================================================

[Solar Cycles]

Please get rid of all those posts by Ian brown etc in your signature, it takes up loads of space and is a bit sad, get over it! We all make mistakes with forecasts, there is no need to rub it in.

Off course there is, over the years Ib has taken great delight, in winding up others with his MW theory!

[shuggee]

PLEASE BEHAVE CHILDREN.

A 7 day ban for being an idiot would be quite frustrating given the coming week don't you think?

[i luv snow]

Hmmm i'm not impressed now. I knew I shouldn't have let the GFS lead me on a merry dance down the road of disapointment.

From what looked like a potent Easterly has now turned into a weak affair with a small chance of snow in the next 4-5 days but nothing to get too excited about.

Andy tut tut....the easterly is nailed, but its potency is not - however the potential is there for alot more thna a weak affair....these things are notriously fickle to forecast, but one thing for me is certain...whatver happens will no doubt surprising a few members or two. Stay positive dude!

[saint]

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=0O5r5ggJXOY Not sure if this mornings country forcast been put up, but here it is anyway

Thank you very much for that!:unsure:

The forecast is really good and has good prostpects that this may well happen now!

[Nick L]

The countryfile forecast tonight will certainly be interesting :unsure:

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Off course there is, over the years Ib has taken great delight, in winding up others with his MW theory!

Only if you choose to be wound up by it.

Last time I checked, this wasn't the school playground?

Back on topic, nothing of interest in the forecast for down here then. 4C in Plymouth, so around 1C-2C up here. Hardly enthralling, but pretty good for Mid December.

[glasgow-guy]

i think if i didn't wake up to snow on Xmas day my 2nd choice would be for very thick fog and bitterly cold conditions :unsure:

[Solar Cycles]

PLEASE BEHAVE CHILDREN.

A 7 day ban for being an idiot would be quite frustrating given the coming week don't you think?

:unsure:

[charlton north-downs]

Many snow events in the past the forecast would mostly have a breakdown at the end of it and many times the cold continued. If snow falls and settles then that will bring max temps down to freezing and that has a knock on effect . Sleet and snow possibly for high ground tonight :unsure:

[andy_leics22]

PLEASE BEHAVE CHILDREN.

A 7 day ban for being an idiot would be quite frustrating given the coming week don't you think?

Not half :unsure:

[Snowmad79]

well i dont know what forecast your looking at lol.

it looks good for now and winter.

im guilty also of claiming wild warm winters.

how wrong am i but always felt christmas pudding could switch to blast from the past tbh.

my thoughts on winter where based on el nino and its brillant that im proven wrong so far.

and i hope all those that see a cold winter are right because i wanna snow party lol.

With all due respect it seems that your perspective of Enso winters must have been baised towards christmas pudding El nino's.

Way before winter I posted a text file article on here that I wrote using as much info as possible from Netweathers british winter history pages , and another good source but also using official Oni Index ( oceanic nino index) and it basically showed that over all since the 1950's El ninos more often than not have actually favoured Snowy and cold winters rather than that most people consider El Ninos to be associated with wetter and warmer winters.

So regardless of being an El Nino Winter or not the chance for a good cold shot was always a possibillty.

LOL @ the Christmas pudding correction tut tut

Edited December 13, 2009 by Snowmad79

[Nick L]

PLEASE BEHAVE CHILDREN.

A 7 day ban for being an idiot would be quite frustrating given the coming week don't you think?

I don't know, at least it will stop me from pulling my hair out

That isn't me asking to be banned by the way

I have to admit, I am amazed at the lack of sensational headline in the usual rubbish newspapers. I would have thought the Daily Express would be predicting The Day After Tomorrow.

And the first snowflakes have appeared on the Met Office maps for Thursday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[i luv snow]

Ta muchly for the countrydile weather forecast link - what a superb forecast, hardly on the fence at all imo - just stating the obvious really - cold is here, and its set to get colder. PPN to get more wintry as the week progresses - snow by thursday for eastern areas. And a "biting" easterly wind (20mph) on Friday with daytime max in London 2oC - which more or less represents an ice day for vast swathes of more rural eastern UK. Top notch!

Edited December 13, 2009 by i luv snow

[Snowyowl9]

The countryfile forecast tonight will certainly be interesting

You`ve missed it.

It won`t be very interesting tonight because it won`t be on.

Thursday 8pm countryfile special christmas it`ll be a forecast by then.

[Mondy]

Cold spell continues here. 4th day in a row with thick freezing fog. Hasn't lifted. I wonder if it will be a really cold spell next midweek or this is as good as it gets?! Have lost count of the number of days with frost - wish I had kept an accurate record. It's been A LOT.

[saint]

I don't know, at least it will stop me from pulling my hair out

That isn't me asking to be banned by the way

I have to admit, I am amazed at the lack of sensational headline in the usual rubbish newspapers. I would have thought the Daily Express would be predicting The Day After Tomorrow.

And the first snowflakes have appeared on the Met Office maps for Thursday:

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

I think we may well see some stories about it in the Express tomorrow, especially after the countryfile forecast and the first few flakes on the METO site!

You know what i'm glad there is a chance of it happening around this time of year, for this reason: If it doesn't happen then we still have Christmas to look forward to and the majority of winter!

Ta muchly for the countrydile weather forecast link - what a superb forecast, hardly on the fence at all imo - just stating the obvious really - cold is here, and its set to get colder. PPN to get more wintry as the week progresses - snow by thursday for eastern areas. And a "biting" easterly wind (20mph) on Friday with daytime max in London 2oC - which more or less represents an ice day for vast swathes of more rural eastern UK. Top notch!

Completely agree.

But i'm not too excited just yet.