Cold Spell Discussion

[Country Boy]

Hardly stopped raining here all day, (Clacton -on -sea. Essex ) one heavy shower after another, clouds look really heavy then move on to leave a clear spell, and then back they come again..The one thing that ahs changed is the temp. it has dropped 2c in the last hour and the wind has gone more to an easterly currently 4c..( feels like -2 in the wind ) ..14.00pm

[MR EXTREMES]

With all due respect it seems that your perspective of Enso winters must have been baised towards christmas pudding El nino's.

Way before winter I posted a text file article on here that I wrote using as much info as possible from Netweathers british winter history pages , and another good source but also using official Oni Index ( oceanic nino index) and it basically showed that over all since the 1950's El ninos more often than not have actually favoured Snowy and cold winters rather than that most people consider El Ninos to be associated with wetter and warmer winters.

So regardless of being an El Nino Winter or not the chance for a good cold shot was always a possibillty.

LOL @ the Christmas pudding correction tut tut

lol alright alright dont rub it in,

i lernt my lesson and i like to eat christmas pudding,

but id rather think ian would taste rather sour lol:drinks:

[Neilsouth]

Hardly stopped raining here all day, (Clacton -on -sea. Essex ) one heavy shower after another, clouds look really heavy then move on to leave a clear spell, and then back they come again..The one thing that ahs changed is the temp. it has dropped 2c in the last hour and the wind has gone more to an easterly currently 4c..( feels like -2 in the wind ) ..14.00pm

Have you noticed the more wintry look to the clouds during today? , it's as if you can really tell what direction it's coming

[Snowmad79]

I can just imagine the Stories in papers as we head into the latter part of next week ... 1cm of snow falls in London and brings the capital city to a stand still. Something really does tell me that this cold Snap is going to give me plenty of headaches of endless S and East media snow ramping .

[Highland Snow]

Cold spell continues here. 4th day in a row with thick freezing fog. Hasn't lifted. I wonder if it will be a really cold spell next midweek or this is as good as it gets?! Have lost count of the number of days with frost - wish I had kept an accurate record. It's been A LOT.

Perth Max Today is -1.1C and sunny with a heavy hoar frost now for four days. (Max Saturday 0.4C, Friday 0.2C).

Message http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPERTHAN2 http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=metric&station=IPERTHAN2 http://www.weatherlink.com/user/highlandsnow/index.php?view=main&headers=1

[BrummieInHolland]

If we're still not that convinced that cold is not far away - the media are forecasting max and mins of 3° | -4° Monday and 2° | -6° Tuesday here in northern Holland.

Next stop Blighty!

[Snowyowl9]

Cold spell continues here. 4th day in a row with thick freezing fog. Hasn't lifted. I wonder if it will be a really cold spell next midweek or this is as good as it gets?! Have lost count of the number of days with frost - wish I had kept an accurate record. It's been A LOT.

You`re in the best place so far with being under the high,windflow here coming from the N/NE which I`ve always found a difference between a NE wind and E/NE to SE as the sea track does modify temps upwards with a NE wind to even this part of of the world,it happened in 1986 although sea temps would of been lower then.

Anyway a N-ly to come to you bringing milder air next couple of days cloud/drizzle.

Milder sector.

Edited December 13, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[SMU]

Hardly stopped raining here all day, (Clacton -on -sea. Essex ) one heavy shower after another, clouds look really heavy then move on to leave a clear spell, and then back they come again..The one thing that ahs changed is the temp. it has dropped 2c in the last hour and the wind has gone more to an easterly currently 4c..( feels like -2 in the wind ) ..14.00pm

looking at the high res GFS model the dewpoints are expected to fall away this afternoon & evening- from the current 3/4 values to closer to 1/2-

I would expect as the evening wears on the showers do turn to more of a wintry flavour-

No coverage or snowcover- but nice to see none the less-

Steve

[Nick L]

You`ve missed it.

It won`t be very interesting tonight because it won`t be on.

Thursday 8pm countryfile special christmas it`ll be a forecast by then.

Argh what happened to it? Countryfile is on a Sunday night...or so I thought.

[Norrance]

Perth Max Today is -1.1C and sunny with a heavy hoar frost now for four days. (Max Saturday 0.4C, Friday 0.2C)

Not that far up the road from you my mum's in Highland Perthshire is heading for their third ice day in a row. Here I might just sneak my first as the temp now is -0.7C, the max of the day so far. Been steady at -0.7C for the last hour or so.

[MR EXTREMES]

You`re in the best place so far with being under the high,windflow here coming from the N/NE which I`ve always found a difference between a NE wind and E/NE to SE as the sea track does modify temps upwards with a NE wind to this part of of the world,it happened in 1986 although sea temps would of been lower then.

Anyway a N-ly to come to you bringing milder air next couple of days cloud/drizzle.

Milder sector.

indeed warm sector but not much of a warm sector.

its fine people it really is going to snow no buts if or maybes its 100% certain now.

so lets get into the christmas spirit and enjoy what we have instead of thinking the worst.

of coarse milder weather will or could come in over christmas well 62 was not a white christmas and look what happened 2 days later,

this not likely to happen but who knows january could be brillant things are in place for a good winter so far.

Edited December 13, 2009 by badboy657

[PB22]

Argh what happened to it? Countryfile is on a Sunday night...or so I thought.

Its the BBC Sports Personality of the Year tonight, hence no Countryfile.

[Neilsouth]

Argh what happened to it? Countryfile is on a Sunday night...or so I thought.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O5r5ggJXOY

Here you go , week ahead weather

[dogs32]

Thank you very much for that!

The forecast is really good and has good prostpects that this may well happen now!

cheers...completely missed this

edit

when and where is open for debate and how much

Edited December 13, 2009 by dogs32

[Cal]

looking at the high res GFS model the dewpoints are expected to fall away this afternoon & evening- from the current 3/4 values to closer to 1/2-

I would expect as the evening wears on the showers do turn to more of a wintry flavour-

No coverage or snowcover- but nice to see none the less-

Steve

Is this to be associated with drier, colder air coming in of the continent Steve? I've had a quick look and dew points do fall of on the Hi Res model but drier conditions prevail.

[Nick L]

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=0O5r5ggJXOY

Here you go , week ahead weather

Cheers for that, I think they know as much as we do about what will happen on Thurs and Fri - not a lot!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh Frosty mate!

With talk like that you'll have me thinkink that we have been relocated to the USA

This cold period has been modeled fairly consistantly now for the last week and a half though, so well done to all you guy's who work tirelesly on looking at the possible outcome

Big Innes

Hi Innes!

I think the models may be underestimating our precipitation big time from the easterly, I feel with the sea surface temps being a bit higher we could see some decent convection off the Forth from Wednesday night onwards. Interesting times ahead, with even the countryfile forecast showing snow showers for Edinburgh on Friday! If a northerly develops in the right area and doesn't just hug the coasts and hills we could be in for a reasonable dumping at some point in the run up to Christmas, not to mention the vast potential from the eventual atlantic attempt to break through!

[Neilsouth]

http://www.sat24.nl/nl

Interesting you can see the clouds coming in off the north sea and colder air i expect(continent)

[Snowyowl9]

indeed warm sector but not much of a warm sector.

Heres the uppers milder air to the north where the high has moved to,so fronts coming into the north upper air above 0c so it`s got to be rain up there,countryfile said this now normally a N-ly would bring cold air but not in this instance.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn242.png

Get that east wind coming in after we`ll be alright.

[SMU]

Is this to be associated with drier, colder air coming in of the continent Steve? I've had a quick look and dew points do fall of on the Hi Res model but drier conditions prevail.

Colder yes & indeed drier- still with some convection -

I would say the odd 'flurry' around overnight- no more than that-

Steve

[Mondy]

Spare a thought for the good people of Regina, Saskatchewan. -53°C it reached overnight. Makes my two recent -7's warm. LOL

[Upgrade]

Have you noticed the more wintry look to the clouds during today? , it's as if you can really tell what direction it's coming

yes i was thinking that this afternoon. maybe its the low light at this time of year but the clouds do "look" full of snow.

[Met4Cast]

I noticed there were some snow clouds coming over and then it started to rain, I looked outside and there were actually quite a few snow grains mixed in (I know it wasnt hail, it was far too soft and they were very small)

So I've just had a heavy sleet shower here in S.E London - Now its cleared, its VERY blue outside, its almost as if I've got blue tinted sunglasses on, very weird.

[weather eater]

But if we are going to have an exceptionally mild December then there will have to be one hell of a collapse in the model predictions.

The might be the case in terms of his LRF, but if the current model predictions turn out to be just a rather cool episode with little in the way of frost and snow then that will hardly shoot down his even larger teapot theory, indeed the only way that will be disproved is a run of colder than average winters. Be that as it may the whole nah nah Ian Browns got it wrong rather resembles the school playground and not adults discussing the complexities of climate and metrology.

[Upgrade]

I noticed there were some snow clouds coming over and then it started to rain, I looked outside and there were actually quite a few snow grains mixed in (I know it wasnt hail, it was far too soft and they were very small)

So I've just had a heavy sleet shower here in S.E London - Now its cleared, its VERY blue outside, its almost as if I've got blue tinted sunglasses on, very weird.

snap - sleeting here now .