Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Cal]

Light Rain now falling onto a frozen ground, a little miffed that it didn't start of as snow but that will get here in the next 36-48hrs, must be very slippery out there with still a visible frost .

[Edge of the moors]

Morning all

At work in Scarborough, raining quite a bit, turned sleety in the heavier stuff.....the BBC weather map this morning looks very promising for my part of the world, nearly lampost time.......

All have a good day !

[disco-barry]

Game on, Beeb and MetOffice finally catching on to the fact that we always get heavy snow from easterlies in this grand old county of ours with mins not getting above freezing come friday with laying snow around from the thursday and saturday coming.

[sparky1972]

look north forecast this morning is not so good, thurs poss snow before winds turn to the west for friday and the weekend.

[mezzacyclone]

look north forecast this morning is not so good, thurs poss snow before winds turn to the west for friday and the weekend.

Not buying into this sparky?

Any "winds turn to the west" will be born of a polar low according to our usual sources

[Lewis]

Morning all 00z GFS once again is very good for our area, but not as a good as the 18z and yesterdays charts, as they could be some warmer 850's about come Monday/Tuesday (but still -5 to -7).

We should be fine, the SE of England don't look good again haha!

[sunny scunny]

Morning all 00z GFS once again is very good for our area, but not as a good as the 18z and yesterdays charts, as they could be some warmer 850's about come Monday/Tuesday (but still -5 to -7).

We should be fine, the SE of England don't look good again haha!

Monday/tuesday is ages away yet mate Im not feeling very confident about a covering of snow in the next few days,although thats mainly due to previous disappointments

[The PIT]

Well the Nold and No doing well here. Milder air moved in overnight so we ended up with a mild night with light showers of rain.

[Hemlock]

3c, 4c forcast in Lincoln tomorrow, and Snow? I don't think so, rain rain rain for my area I suspect, which to be honest suits me, I have 20+ miles to drive tomorrow evening on mostly B roads so rain rather than snow suits me just fine.

[johnholmes]

Will it snow on low ground for South Yorks and Lincs, away from the coast?

Try it for yourselves for your area-factor in the height difference and the sea effect.

Height is roughly in this situation about 1C per 450ft I would estimate

-this is my outlook for Doncaster at about 40 ft AMSL

Day=Thursday; using the 00z GFS/Extra output on Wednesday

Precip=2mm at 1500; 2mm at 1800=probably enough

Zero isotherm=400m tempo 500m middle of day later 300m or lower=should be about okay

850mb temp=-6C at 1200; -7C at 1500 and -9C at 1800=okay when its showing precip

Dewpoint=+1 falling to -1C as precip arrives=okay

Temperature=starting about 5+C at 1200 and falling to about 1C by 1800=prob okay

Wet bulb temperature=between 2 and 4C =prob okay with precip rates

1000-850mb thickness=1290DM falling a bit through the afternoon=prob okay

Based on the above I would suggest wet snow by about 1600 with 1-2cm possible before it clears away

Can I make a plea for those using this section

PLEASE ensure you have your nearest town and preferably your height amsl-otherwise your reports lose a lot of their interest

Edited December 16, 2009 by johnholmes

[Lewis]

Will it snow on low ground for South Yorks and Lincs, away from the coast?

Try it for yourselves for your area-factor in the height difference and the sea effect.

Height is roughly in this situation about 1C per 450ft I would estimate

-this is my outlook for Doncaster at about 40 ft AMSL

Day=Thursday; using the 00z GFS/Extra output on Wednesday

Precip=2mm at 1500; 2mm at 1800=probably enough

Zero isotherm=400m tempo 500m middle of day later 300m or lower=should be about okay

850mb temp=-6C at 1200; -7C at 1500 and -9C at 1800=okay when its showing precip

Dewpoint=+1 falling to -1C as precip arrives=okay

Temperature=starting about 5+C at 1200 and falling to about 1C by 1800=prob okay

Wet bulb temperature=between 2 and 4C =prob okay with precip rates

1000-850mb thickness=1290DM falling a bit through the afternoon=prob okay

Based on the above I would suggest wet snow by about 1600 with 1-2cm possible before it clears away

Can I make a plea for those using this section

PLEASE ensure you have your nearest town and preferably your height amsl-otherwise your reports lose a lot of their interest

Good Morning John,

Was wondering when you was going to update the NW weather warning, no mention of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire as i think these are the areas more pronged to get some heavy snow, you just mention eastern areas and SE.

Lewis

[johnholmes]

Lewis have you read the alert please?

this is part of the text

Areas to be affected by the snow=central and eastern areas over and east of high ground, including East Anglia, the south East, parts of the Midlands and central southern England.

where do you think ou are?

to me Lincs is in that area or am I being especially dense this morning

so why does it need updating?

Edited December 16, 2009 by johnholmes

[Lewis]

Lewis have you read the alert please?

this is part of the text

Areas to be affected by the snow=central and eastern areas over and east of high ground, including East Anglia, the south East, parts of the Midlands and central southern England.

where do you think ou are?

to me Lincs is in that area or am I being especially dense this morning

so why does it need updating?

Eastern N England,

East to me is Lincs and east mids area and then you put East Anglia, SE england.

Your warning would be top notch if u added more detail, for example;

Yorkshire and Lincolnshire along with Kent, and areas around the Wash, will see more in the way of snow.

Put your neck out, models show it, so does the meto

Then your warning would be perfect.

[woldsowl]

Will it snow on low ground for South Yorks and Lincs, away from the coast?

Hi John.

A lot of talk over the past days about "away from the coast", which will become crucial for some in the near future!

Is there any way to calculate the coastal influence and it's effect on temp and dew points, or do I pop out to Brid, spit in the wind and see how far inland it travels?

Incidentally, the nearest bit of coast for me is 10 miles to the NW and SE.

Incidentally, the nearest bit of coast for me is 10 miles to the NW and SE.

Mmmm! If the coast was 10 miles to the NW and 10 to the SE where would that put me? Make that NE and SE.

[Lewis]

Will it snow on low ground for South Yorks and Lincs, away from the coast?

Hi John.

A lot of talk over the past days about "away from the coast", which will become crucial for some in the near future!

Is there any way to calculate the coastal influence and it's effect on temp and dew points, or do I pop out to Brid, spit in the wind and see how far inland it travels?

Incidentally, the nearest bit of coast for me is 10 miles to the NW and SE.

From late Thursday onwards 3-6pm until Sunday all low level areas will see precipitation falling as Snow, all john means is that its less likely to accumulate right on the coastal areas as the temps will hover just above freeizing, as soon as you hit 10-15 miles inland, you'll be fine.

Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Looks like a mega downgrade for me with the gfs 06z for tomorrow evening, with the ppn further south.If thats correct i'll get nothing

[Lewis]

Looks like a mega downgrade for me with the gfs 06z for tomorrow evening, with the ppn further south.If thats correct i'll get nothing

Your Joking aint you?

The 06z is a cracker upto now for our area!!

Take the precip charts with a pinch of salt mate with the GFS, due to the resolution, keep an eye on the NMM models on n-w extra this evening.

It's a more direct ENE flow, with a tighter flow, they will be more precip around trust me

[Craigers]

Your Joking aint you?

The 06z is a cracker upto now for our area!!

Take the precip charts with a pinch of salt mate with the GFS, due to the resolution, keep an eye on the NMM models on n-w extra this evening.

It's a more direct ENE flow, with a tighter flow, they will be more precip around trust me

i totaly agree with you! E/NE flow always does well for north yorkshire, east of doncaster and all of lincolnshire!!

nice to be back on this thread!! could remember feb easterly09 and gfs didnt even predict the 10cm we had here in doncaster!!

[sunny scunny]

Your Joking aint you?

The 06z is a cracker upto now for our area!!

Take the precip charts with a pinch of salt mate with the GFS, due to the resolution, keep an eye on the NMM models on n-w extra this evening.

It's a more direct ENE flow, with a tighter flow, they will be more precip around trust me

Im not confident about later tomorrow but i really hope im wrong. Saturday evening looks pretty good on the GFS 6Z

[grab my graupel]

I'm delighted with this article from my local press:

SNOW is forecast to hit the region tomorrow and into the weekend.

A weather forecaster at the MeteoGroup said there would be sleet and snow flurries beginning tomorrow morning in York and the surrounding area but gradually getting worse throughout the day.

By midday there may be a light covering in some areas and by the late afternoon there may be a fair amount of snow, which is being blown in from the North Sea.

Friday will see more snow showers while Saturday will see sleet on the East Coast but more snow again for York, Selby and the rest of the county.

The wintry weather will continue through Saturday night, when temperatures will drop as low as minus 4 degrees Celsius.

The snow will ease off on Sunday but winds will increase meaning it will be another very cold day.

http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/4796587.Snow_forecast_for_York_and_North_Yorkshire/

[Lewis]

Im not confident about later tomorrow but i really hope im wrong. Saturday evening looks pretty good on the GFS 6Z

You'll be fine mate, the models are just filling in on minor details now, we know where the precip's gunna be and thats right over us

Relex,

Enjoy the ride

I'm delighted with this aricle from my local press:

SNOW is forecast to hit the region tomorrow and into the weekend.

A weather forecaster at the MeteoGroup said there would be sleet and snow flurries beginning tomorrow morning in York and the surrounding area but gradually getting worse throughout the day.

By midday there may be a light covering in some areas and by the late afternoon there may be a fair amount of snow, which is being blown in from the North Sea.

Friday will see more snow showers while Saturday will see sleet on the East Coast but more snow again for York, Selby and the rest of the county.

The wintry weather will continue through Saturday night, when temperatures will drop as low as minus 4 degrees Celsius.

The snow will ease off on Sunday but winds will increase meaning it will be another very cold day.

http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/4796587.Snow_forecast_for_York_and_North_Yorkshire/

Sleet on the east coast, lol! heard it all now, they are clueless.

[sunny scunny]

I'm delighted with this article from my local press:

SNOW is forecast to hit the region tomorrow and into the weekend.

A weather forecaster at the MeteoGroup said there would be sleet and snow flurries beginning tomorrow morning in York and the surrounding area but gradually getting worse throughout the day.

By midday there may be a light covering in some areas and by the late afternoon there may be a fair amount of snow, which is being blown in from the North Sea.

Friday will see more snow showers while Saturday will see sleet on the East Coast but more snow again for York, Selby and the rest of the county.

The wintry weather will continue through Saturday night, when temperatures will drop as low as minus 4 degrees Celsius.

The snow will ease off on Sunday but winds will increase meaning it will be another very cold day.

http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/4796587.Snow_forecast_for_York_and_North_Yorkshire/

Good luck mate Lets hope were all posting snow pics within the next few days

[grab my graupel]

Good luck mate Lets hope were all posting snow pics within the next few days

Yes, you too mate

Even if it fails to deliver during the next few days, which it won't , there's some fantastic potential on this- mornings GFS for further episodes.

I'd ignore any precipitation amounts on the models, mate -

they are unlikely to be accurate, particularly where convective showers are concerned.

[Craigers]

does anyone think this will be better than febs easterly?

[WS Evolution]

For those of you in doubt here is last November 2008's north easterly in Scarborough district from a less favorable synopsis:

Locally condition can end up far worse then forecast as streams of shower merge into prolonged moderate snow fall.

Also see from the same day:

Edited December 16, 2009 by WS Evolution