East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4

[janetmh71]

We are about 7 miles south of Kings Lynn . . . obviously reasonably near the coast (as the crow flies) Does anyone think there is a danger that this snow band could go straight over us as rain. After all it is supposed to be milder the nearer to the coast you are?? Sorry if it seems like a daft question . . part of me wants lots of snow but the other part of me wants everything to still be clear on Friday as I am supposed to be going out with friends which i dont get to do very often!!

Janet

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

We are about 7 miles south of Kings Lynn . . . obviously reasonably near the coast (as the crow flies) Does anyone think there is a danger that this snow band could go straight over us as rain. After all it is supposed to be milder the nearer to the coast you are?? Sorry if it seems like a daft question . . part of me wants lots of snow but the other part of me wants everything to still be clear on Friday as I am supposed to be going out with friends which i dont get to do very often!!

Janet

It seems to me that the vigorous nature of the snow overnight Thursday may well override the warming effect from the sea - and seven miles from Lynn means you're, what, 10 miles from the main body of the Wash?

[Ocean Transit]

Can I ask where you get those from, and how can you view the NAE?

From the Met Office:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/services/uknationalairnavigation.html

£55 a year

[Optimus Prime]

Well I've had a look at the Metoffices forecast and Netweather for my local region. I think I'll pick the netweather forecast as it has greater chance of snow and shows lower temperatures.

May seem like I'm cherry picking but I need something to get my hopes up. Those snow showers are so close yet so far tomorrow.

[janetmh71]

It seems to me that the vigorous nature of the snow overnight Thursday may well override the warming effect from the sea - and seven miles from Lynn means you're, what, 10 miles from the main body of the Wash?

Yes roughly 10 miles in a straight line from the wash . .quite a distance I know but as the wind is coming straight over the wash I was just wondering what people thought.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Yes roughly 10 miles in a straight line from the wash . .quite a distance I know but as the wind is coming straight over the wash I was just wondering what people thought.

Cold air moving over a warmish body of ater ought to increase convection as long as the sea track isn't too far. I suspect you may be just far enough inland not to have your local temps affected too much.

[Mikel Nimbus]

Dew points in Kent look to just hover above the zero mark until the early hours of Friday so I wouldn't be surprised if it is a marginal affair there to start with on Thursday evening. However, the ppn is certainly there for that region so you have a lot to look forward to down there.

CAPE forecasts are good for convection over the North Sea and surface winds converging right on the coast of East Anglia strongly suggest a snow streamer situation tomorrow night. As the low pulls south, so does the convergence, and with it, it takes the streamer from EA down across London and into south eastern counties.

A good covering is on the cards for many.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Mikel Nimbus

[Matty J]

No snow around Chelmsford today. S and E of Essex won't get below freezing until Saturday on the latest GFS output.

Really? That suprises me.

It snowed for hours in Braintree which isn't really that far. Everything was covered, even the roads! Was quite suprised that it stuck so well, started to rain when i left at around 5pm but everywhere was still white.

Matt.

[kold weather]

No snow around Chelmsford today. S and E of Essex won't get below freezing until Saturday on the latest GFS output.

Strictly you are right AFT BUT seriously you should never take those temps too seriously!

I grant you your probably right for the very coastlines themselves but I'd have thought slightly inland we will see mins of -1C roughly...not severe buit in a snowy easterly which is coming off a fairly mild North Sea still but there are some very decent uppers and the snowfall (which I promise you will be widespread!) should drop those temps away nicely to freezing and a little below.

Anyway you didn't get snow in Chelmsford...I'm shocked because I remember someone posting up a photo from Chelmsford that showed a good settling amount of snow, I'm not sure there were many places that didn't get snow away from the northern part of the section.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Really? That suprises me.

It snowed for hours in Braintree which isn't really that far. Everything was covered, even the roads! Was quite suprised that it stuck so well, started to rain when i left at around 5pm but everywhere was still white. :lol:

Matt.

I really don't think you need to pay too much attention, every now and again AFT stops posting his normal sensible analysis and starts mild ramping (yes, I know he has snowdrifts in his avatar, but I prefer to go by what someone types rather than pretty pictures).

[Tim Bland]

Really? That suprises me.

It snowed for hours in Braintree which isn't really that far. Everything was covered, even the roads! Was quite suprised that it stuck so well, started to rain when i left at around 5pm but everywhere was still white. :lol:

Matt.

I drove through Chelmsford earlier and it was snowing and settling on grass / cars.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Tim Bland

[k66yla]

I've got to get some sleep now but I expect when I return from work tomorrow this thread will be EA & SE Cold Spell Discussion 7, goodnight all I think we will be having a late night tomorrow :lol:

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've got to get some sleep now but I expect when I return from work tomorrow this thread will be EA & SE Cold Spell Discussion 7, goodnight all I think we will be having a late night tomorrow :lol:

Goodnight.

[tinybill]

Goodnight.

UK regions: 60%East of England60%London & South East EnglandHeavy Snow0000 Fri 182359 Fri 18There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of east and southeastern England during Friday. Heavy snow showers will give accumulations of 5-10cm on low ground and 15-20cm over hills. Some drifting snow is likely in the strong north to northeasterly wind. This could cause disruption to travel networks. Outdoor events may also be affected by the snow.

Issued at: 1039 Wed 16 Dec

[fine wine]

No snow around Chelmsford today. S and E of Essex won't get below freezing until Saturday on the latest GFS output.

A rather odd thing to say as I worked in Chelmsford today and I can assure others it did indeed snow and settle. Clearly a wind up post here, shame really as it spoils it for others.

[Ben_Cambs]

UK regions: 60%East of England60%London & South East EnglandHeavy Snow0000 Fri 182359 Fri 18There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of east and southeastern England during Friday. Heavy snow showers will give accumulations of 5-10cm on low ground and 15-20cm over hills. Some drifting snow is likely in the strong north to northeasterly wind. This could cause disruption to travel networks. Outdoor events may also be affected by the snow.

Issued at: 1039 Wed 16 Dec

Lovely! I certainly wont be going to bed tomorrow until I see snow fallin! :lol:

Edited December 16, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Ocean Transit]

Estofex thunderstorm watch for our area tomorrow:

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2009121806_200912161828_2_stormforecast.xml

As someone posted earlier, these type of set-ups can delivery anything up to 1ft in places. Southern North Sea is really going to fire up tomorrow.

Now the Met Office is onboard with the risk of thundersnow, looking more and more likely

[tinybill]

http://www.buienradar.nl/

this for all the action the dutch rardar showing all the showers in the north sea

[smich]

A rather odd thing to say as I worked in Chelmsford today and I can assure others it did indeed snow and settle. Clearly a wind up post here, shame really as it spoils it for others.

Note the name - AtlanticFLAMEthrower!

Ramping and "downgrading" runs is one thing - but lying? Give me strength.

smich

[Rajeev Samant]

Hello to all

We got snow today not that much but a bit. I live in NW London. and in one of the forecasts i saw its suddenley turining into an easternley wind. Isnt this a great setup for the thames streamer. ALso do you think that bbcs graphics are crap And how much snow is going to fall over NW london?

Cheers,

Rajeev

[kold weather]

OT, very interesting to see what the Met office have suggested, do you have an idea what they suggest for London FWIW.

I could well see embedded convective cells within the general band given the decent lapse rates. I also suspect 20cms is certainly possible in E/C Kent and also as you say E.Essex because the front/trough feature doesn't really move from the area but only tilts from a Sw-NE oreintation to a more N-S flow as the uppers start to tilt increasing to the north.

Should get a good idea how this is all going to evolve by tomorrow afternoon.

[chilly milly]

My temp here is now 3.2c and dewpoint 3.1c.

This is seriously worrying me. It's night time and these are too high for snow. Are they likely to lower before morning?

[Jason H]

My temp here is now 3.2c and dewpoint 3.1c.

This is seriously worrying me. It's night time and these are too high for snow. Are they likely to lower before morning?

Yes, Ja, Yes. Nicht to worry.

[saint]

My temp here is now 3.2c and dewpoint 3.1c.

This is seriously worrying me. It's night time and these are too high for snow. Are they likely to lower before morning?

Snow isn't due till tomorrow evening!

Temps are not due to drop till the cloud clears, which should be early morning, maybe 3am/4am?

[essex coast matt]

was dry here till 1pm ish then we had the mix of rain sleet and snow, did not settle, in the town, turned all rain by 3ish, misty with drizzle at mo temp 2c, winds turning ne over norfolk now, and temp 6c on coast up there now, so think any showers up there will be rain or hail later tonight, i think i will start seeing showers from around mid morn and turnig to sleet or snow late arvo, after that who knows, lots of nowcasting, one thing that north east wind going to make it bloody cold