East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4

[donna-m]

Hi all, this is going to be somewhat of a ramble but here goes. Apologies in advance. I hope some of you can put my mind at rest somewhat.

I'm concerned that I may miss out on the action tomorrow night. As you can see I live in Southend, SE Essex at the mouth of the Thames. Now looking at the forecast, obviously there is a good chance my area could be in the firing line for some of the heaviest and prolonged showers, from tomorrow afternoon, right through until Saturday. But, the question on my lips is, will they be of snow and sufficient enough to give a good covering?

Air temps and DP's suggest it could be marginal (not that the charts really matter now) but having the N.Sea to my East and the Thames to my immediate South surely leaves me in a very marginal zone?

Take last Feb's snow for instance. A Thames Streamer setup. In years gone by that would of dumped at least a foot of snow here (we had over 2 foot lying in the 80's-90's from streamers) but we ended up with about 5cm of slush, which is unheard of in such setups. Where as other places further up the Thames had inches and inches of the white stuff. Paul S documented it very well. A freak event or a sign of the even larger teapot here in SE Essex?

I've that nagging feeling that we will see more sleety/wet snow than actual dry snow here again. Whilst I look across the Thames (literally) and see the likes of Sheppy and N. Kent plastered, as seems to have been the case in the last decade.

Now, I know it's all about nowcasting and it's pretty impossible to predict snow. But I would really appreciate an honest answer to my concerns (good or bad!) I think i'm going to take the negative stance, so I won't be too downhearted if we are let down again in this part of the world.

Best of luck to you all with the snow. May you all get a good dumping of the stuff.

Sorry for the ramble and sorry if it has depressed any of you!

Maybe I should get a life. I just want to be able to take my 4yr old sledging and build a decent snowman. And not have to explain again why we miss the snow, but his cousins in N.Essex and W.Essex get it by the bucket load.

Right this is excatly the same boat as me. I saw No snow in Feb only little balls that melted into slush on contact. My kids eldest 9 has never made a

snowman etc. I Haven't even told them about the snow tommorow Just in case.

Your concerns are the same as mine.

But good luck to everyone for snow

Donna

[Southender]

18Z run of the GFS delays tomorrow's main event by six hours or so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

Prehaps, it's better it arrives after dark?

Hmmm. What time do you make it to hit Essex then OT?

[Ocean Transit]

When it does arrive, it's slightly further West and more intense:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs333.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs363.gif

2m and dp's are fine for most (apart from Kent!!)

LS - I would expect anytime from 9PM-12AM but each run of the GFS is slowing it down so more snow when it does arrive

Edited December 16, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[TEITS]

Disappointing 18Z GFS precip predictions.

Very little in the way of inland penetration with only E parts of E Anglia/Kent seeing much in the way of snow.

However I would be surprised if the showers didn't penetrate further inland.

[Met4Cast]

Right this is excatly the same boat as me. I saw No snow in Feb only little balls that melted into slush on contact. My kids eldest 9 has never made a

snowman etc. I Haven't even told them about the snow tommorow Just in case.

Your concerns are the same as mine.

But good luck to everyone for snow

Donna

The streamer last February headed down the Thames into London. I'm on the North Kent coast and all that snow was passing over me which gave me a couple of inches before the streamer shifted about a mile Northwards, I spent most of the night watching the radar seeing that all that snow was just a mile North of me.

This setup is different, instead of heading into London its going to be heading down into the South-East. North Kent etc.. obviously looking likely to do well out of this, but as the snow moves Southwards through the evening I think you could see a good 3-4 inches of snow.

[Paul Sherman]

18Z run of the GFS delays tomorrow's main event by six hours or so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

Prehaps, it's better it arrives after dark?

I would'nt say delay OT - This is what I thought would happen yesterday morning and still stick by this.

[snowray]

Everything slightly further East on the 18z, great news for many in SE London and East Anlglia. The heavy snow East from around Cromer to Brighton! :lol:

[Ben_Cambs]

Disappointing 18Z GFS precip predictions.

Very little in the way of inland penetration with only E parts of E Anglia/Kent seeing much in the way of snow.

However I would be surprised if the showers didn't penetrate further inland.

I have to disagree with that, the run shifts the snow slightly west I agree, I still think Cambridgeshire could see up to 4 inches still

Edited December 16, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Paul Sherman]

Disappointing 18Z GFS precip predictions.

Very little in the way of inland penetration with only E parts of E Anglia/Kent seeing much in the way of snow.

However I would be surprised if the showers didn't penetrate further inland.

How much do you think I could expect down here Dave ??

And if I could give you the Snow I would, Any day but this in the whole year, Retail Shops in London on the Busiest Friday of the Year

[winterfreak]

Do the higher dp's mean Kent will miss out now???

[Shunter]

Hmmm. What time do you make it to hit Essex then OT?

Its not been delayed at all. Precipitation for Essex & Kent was forecast to be showery in nature b4 6pm as shown on Sky, BBC and on GFS.

[Southender]

I would'nt say delay OT - This is what I thought would happen yesterday morning and still stick by this.

Perhaps this time we can hit the jackpot Paul?!

[TEITS]

I have to disagree with that, the run shifts the snow slightly west I agree, I still think Cambridgeshire could see up to 4 inches still

Hope your right.

However take a look for yourself.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

[Ocean Transit]

Do the higher dp's mean Kent will miss out now???

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs278.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs428.gif

Soon falls below freezing, don't panic! Anyway GFS was a good 2C out for Essex today on dew points

[snowking]

I think it depends where you are....certainly across the southern half of EA its a bit of an upgrade.....having said that 1) it wont forecast the deep convection and forcing as was evident today and 2) its only 1 run of 1 model

Very much agree with TEITS, the showers will spread inland and be pretty widespread through the first part of the evening tomorrow

SK

[Chris_19]

What are the DewPoints like for tomorrow? When the showers head in?

[nick sussex]

I do hope people aren't going to get down over the gfs precip predictions, these are not reliable with Lake Effect snow type situations. And i'm dreading the bbc forecast in half an hour as i fear the bbc snow blob graphics are likely to lead to mass hysteria just like last night!

[Ben_Cambs]

Hope your right.

However take a look for yourself.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs303.gif

Always 00z run, and snow is very difficult is forecast, especially where it falls

[winterfreak]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs278.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs428.gif

Soon falls below freezing, don't panic! Anyway GFS was a good 2C out for Essex today on dew points

I've got a dewpoint now of -0.7°c. That would be enough wouldn't it (seeing as we're 'warmer' than progged for the next few days?)

[kold weather]

Given the timing of the fronts arrival looks like it should be into the eveing hours that bodes well for us...for those in SE Essex worrying, all I'll say is once the snow starts, it should settle. The models won't have a good grip of the temps under the snow. Conditions by the coast are always that little bit closer to marginal but I'd think in this set-up we should be on the right side of marginal, temps will be a little bit lower then the models would expect in heavy snow and thats typically what occurs.

[TEITS]

How much do you think I could expect down here Dave ??

And if I could give you the Snow I would, Any day but this in the whole year, Retail Shops in London on the Busiest Friday of the Year

I reckon some lucky devils could see between 20-30cm.

Whats troubling me is I have great respect for the GFS precip predictions and it seems with each run the intensity of the snow is being pushed further E. The risk of heavy snow based on the 18Z is only the extreme E parts of E Anglia/Kent.

I know it always comes to radar watching but for my own location I shall keep my ramping to a minimum.

[SMU]

FORECAST FOR PERIOD Thurs - Friday

Right click & save I guess

Forecast for SE from 6pm Thurs to 6am Saturday.doc

Thanks

Steve

[Met4Cast]

I think it depends where you are....certainly across the southern half of EA its a bit of an upgrade.....having said that 1) it wont forecast the deep convection and forcing as was evident today and 2) its only 1 run of 1 model

Very much agree with TEITS, the showers will spread inland and be pretty widespread through the first part of the evening tomorrow

SK

I think today has proved that the GFS has been downplaying the PPN. It certainly wasn't forecasting the PPN to be as widespread as it was today.

[Paul Sherman]

The front stalling tomorrow with Convective showers thrown into the mix is very different to today, read Nick F's Post a few pages back. We will have a keen North Easterly once the 1st Occlusion sits over NW France tonight, if you look at the GFS The really cold Uppers stream in tomorrow at about 4-6pm and after some convective showers that might start wintry on the extreme coast the front grinds to a halt over the extreme South East, this should all be snow and persistant for hours.

I can see a lot of the South East being affected by this even as far west as London, Herts, Surrey etc, but heaviest falls in an area from North Kent down through Ashford to Folkestone

Paul S

[runboy]

Funny old evening in Norwich - temps now rising to over 3c and rain, rain, rain........

As a snow insecure person, anyone want to keep my spirits up?