East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4

[TEITS]

Damn I missed the 10.30 forecast as I was playing Modern Warfare 2.

However looking at the updated fax chart and the plot thickens because the front is further NW and near the Wash!!

I have no doubts this will change come tomorrow. Besides this the actual position of the front may vary slightly come tomorrow evening.

Actually looking at the fax chart around the extreme SE i.e Kent you would be looking at upper temps around -5/-7C. The much colder upper temps are ahead of the front. Still these much colder upper temps would eventually move SE.

[Paul Sherman]

1030 Forecast looked good for you Dave

Your area seeing the 1st of the Snow showers around the Wash area blown inland on a Gale Force North Easterly

Paul S

[TEITS]

1030 Forecast looked good for you Dave

Your area seeing the 1st of the Snow showers around the Wash area blown inland on a Gale Force North Easterly

Paul S

Cheers matey.

I fancied a break from model watching but I also love irritating the americans whilst playing online.

On a different note and Saturday is looking good for E Anglia/SE. The GFS continues to indicate the front will not weaken as it moves SE and could bring a 3hr spell of snow.

[scotto]

How far north do people expect tomorrows predicted band of snow to reach before it spreads down the south eastern side of the country???

[andy_leics22]

Cheers matey.

I fancied a break from model watching but I also love irritating the americans whilst playing online.

On a different note and Saturday is looking good for E Anglia/SE. The GFS continues to indicate the front will not weaken as it moves SE and could bring a 3hr spell of snow.

Dude you abandoned us Midlanders

Paul.. The forecast showed snow showers being blown in through the Wash area? Did they get as far as Leicestershire?

[kold weather]

Yeah Dave the front is a little further NW on the latest Fax chart, going to be a lot of uncertainties right upto tomorrow eveing. The front takes a little longer on the UKMO 18z run which is what the fax chart is based off, probably not getting here until 2-3am earliest I'd imagine, though the showers piling in will probably have enough thrust to give more snow then I'd normally expect before the front comes through and probably stalls...the ideal situation is the front stalls a little further NW of where its progged to stall, Kent would still be hammered by those NE winds but it brings other areas a little more inland into play.

[Iceni]

Im in zone 2 . . . just hoping that zone 1 moves a little towards the west!! But being at the north of zone 2 has to be a good thing??

Hello fellow zone 2 person. I'm about 8 miles east of zone 1, but right in the upper middle of the zone. Sounds like some science fiction utopia novel Thank you Steve for taking the time to do such a detailed forecast for us dummies.

Re. BBC: Loved the evil chuckle about Monday's forecast… got to be good news as I reckon the forecaster likes snow

[Ocean Transit]

Temperature has risen by 2.8 deg.C here in the last three hours! Now a mild(ish) 3.2 deg. C.

I really hope temperature drop soon otherwise tomorrow is going to be very slushy!

EDIT: I notice London, Bedford and Benson are not far off 4 deg. C either.

Edited December 17, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[kold weather]

Temps rising seem likely to be because we now have winds sourced from the North Sea and thus are a little milder at the surface then what we've had, and until we start to drag in the much colder stuff then temps will only slowly drop away over the next 3-4hrs or so under the cloud cover leftover from the warm front.

Upper temps and dew points support snowfall as early as the early afternoon hours tomorrow however given the modification from the North sea I suspect we will have to wait til lthe early eveing hours to see any real results in our zone. Temps look a touch on the marginal side right on the coasts it has to be said but any heavy showers will drag the snow level down right to the coast.

[Ocean Transit]

Thanks kw.

Shall be interesting to see if the UKMO expand the 'orange' zone on the severe weather warnings at 11 this morning to include a few more counties further west like Herts, London and Cambs. Very unlikely that criteria will be met for the emergency 'red' zone to be brought in tomorrow for the se.

About 50 minutes until the 02Z updates comes through from Exeter, then I will call it a night.

BTW, front page of the Daily Express carries the headline 'eight inches of snow on way' with a picture of a london high street and bus'

Edited December 17, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[Optimus Prime]

Latest change has put me in the firing line of some heavy snow. Last February was good but not great here (8cm highest in my records but seeing Slough get pounded with 20+cm left trouser leged me off a bit)

Only time we've had more then 8 inches was in February 1991 and more particularly December 81 with shockingly low temperatures.

I think the days of me getting 8 inches has come and gone.

Edited December 17, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[wellington boot]

Temperature has risen by 2.8 deg.C here in the last three hours! Now a mild(ish) 3.2 deg. C.

I really hope temperature drop soon otherwise tomorrow is going to be very slushy!

EDIT: I notice London, Bedford and Benson are not far off 4 deg. C either.

I'm with you on that. Really want to see those dropping off. I will be annoyed if loads of ppn is wasted tomorrow as rain or non-settling snow, making the ground wet etcetc. I would hope it might just kick off, at least for me, around early evening time, start as snow, settle immediately, and go on for a very long time. How likely is that though...

[Iceni]

Temps rising seem likely to be because we now have winds sourced from the North Sea and thus are a little milder at the surface then what we've had, and until we start to drag in the much colder stuff then temps will only slowly drop away over the next 3-4hrs or so under the cloud cover leftover from the warm front.

Upper temps and dew points support snowfall as early as the early afternoon hours tomorrow however given the modification from the North sea I suspect we will have to wait til lthe early eveing hours to see any real results in our zone. Temps look a touch on the marginal side right on the coasts it has to be said but any heavy showers will drag the snow level down right to the coast.

They're certainly dropping again now — clear starry sky again. Just the way I hoped it would be. Watch out for ice tomorrow morning

[Norfolk_N_chance]

all in all im very pleased with what the models are suggesting and the latest forecasts on bbc, though it does seem they change on an hourly basis!!

hopefully we will see a little snow here in north west norfolk.

not looking forward to the wind this afternoon, im window cleaning on the sea front at hunstanton and its going to be raw. (bbc suggesting windchill of -4)

may need someone to peel me off the aluminium ladder on the 2nd floor lol

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm off to bed now, but interestingly showers are already heading towards Norwich. With reports of 1-2C around Norwich it could be quite interesting to see what they bring- probably something sleety I guess.

[john mac]

Well ive gone through the whole thread and have read some great posts, but still have no idea whether im in the firing line for heavy snow tomorrow. Can someone help?

[Optimus Prime]

Well ive gone through the whole thread and have read some great posts, but still have no idea whether im in the firing line for heavy snow tomorrow. Can someone help?

Yeah you'll get some.

[john mac]

Just watched weatherview with rob, said the whole of the south east would take a pasting, included all of essex, kent, surrey and sussex happy days. by the way he didnt mention snow depths just said it would snow all day on friday

Edited December 17, 2009 by john mac

[Ocean Transit]

EGSS 162358Z 1700/1806 23005KT 0600 FG BKN002 BECMG 1700/1703 01010KT 9999 NSW SCT030 BECMG 1712/1715 35017G27KT TEMPO 1716/1806 35027G37KT 2000 SHSN BKN008

The format has changed since I was at the Met Office lol. If I'm reading it right, snow showers between 20Z Thursday and 00Z Friday for just north of you 'john mac'

Edited December 17, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[Ocean Transit]

Just released from Exeter Ops centre:

--

FAUK18 EGRR 170200

VALID DEC 17/0300Z TO 17/0900Z.

OUTLOOK: UNTIL DEC 18/1800Z:

REMAINDER OF THURSDAY:

SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE E ALONG

OCCLUSION. RISK OF EMBD CB AND TSSN. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED,

ESPECIALLY ACROSS E COUNTIES, WITH BLSN REDUCING VISIBILITY AT

TIMES.

FRIDAY UNTIL 1800Z:

REMAINING COLD AND UNSETTLED ACROSS S AND E ENGLAND, WITH FURTHER

HVY SHSN GIVING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN STRONG E

FLOW. EXTENSIVE HILL FG AT TIMES.

--

Threat of thundersnow remains especially along the coast of Suffolk and Kent. 45mph gusts are now progged for parts of the Essex and Kent coast, so blizzards are a strong possibility on Friday.

So, we are less then 18 hours away from something rather special in the SE and EA.

Night!

Edited December 17, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[tasty_snacks]

I think the days of me getting 8 inches has come and gone.

steady on! :lol:

i think what's pleasing so far is that it's nearly gone exactly as predicted, within a 36h horizon. we've had the foreseen snow turning to sleet to rain and rising temps, which was what looked like happening yesterday morning.

now this cold just needs to follow suit for a rather splendid wintry weekend. here is se london i'd be surprised by anything under a cm or two by friday morning, though it seems the best of it will yet again be reserved for the high ground in kent. damn the fact that i'm carless this weekend!

Edited December 17, 2009 by tasty_snacks

[Sno' problem]

Threat of thundersnow remains especially along the coast of Suffolk and Kent. 45mph gusts are now progged for parts of the Essex and Kent coast, so blizzards are a strong possibility on Friday.

So, we are less then 18 hours away from something rather special in the SE and EA.

Night!

Thanks for that OT, if only we/I had the perfect conditions for a Thames streamer, the thundersnow in 2003 (or am I wrong?) was stunning, but hopefully someone will get a taste of what it's like.

Edit: Saying that, looking at the 00z, maybe the wind will be favourable for a streamer on Friday!!!!!

Edited December 17, 2009 by Sno' problem

[londonsnow]

well it looks darn good for the southeast. as usual the north downs are in for the biggest totals. beyond that well i think the models are struggling.

[winterfreak]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pgps6/BBC_Weather_16_12_2009/

Just what is Mr McElwee alluding to with regards to Monday??? :lol:

[Hagler]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pgps6/BBC_Weather_16_12_2009/

Just what is Mr McElwee alluding to with regards to Monday??? :lol:

The BBC weather teams xmas party?