East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4

[donna-m]

whats best to watch itv weather or bbc??? both on same time arn't they??

[snowking]

I do hope people aren't going to get down over the gfs precip predictions, these are not reliable with Lake Effect snow type situations. And i'm dreading the bbc forecast in half an hour as i fear the bbc snow blob graphics are likely to lead to mass hysteria just like last night!

Damn right nick

if i dont see AT LEAST 5 blobs of snow pass over me on the forecast im straight on the phone to snowmaritains

SK

[TEITS]

I do hope people aren't going to get down over the gfs precip predictions, these are not reliable with Lake Effect snow type situations. And i'm dreading the bbc forecast in half an hour as i fear the bbc snow blob graphics are likely to lead to mass hysteria just like last night!

Not sure I agree mate.

The Feb 2nd E,ly was perfectly modelled by the GFS and actually predicted the streamer. The BBC were suggesting heavy snow in my area and yet the GFS suggested very few showers and the GFS was proved right.

However in saying that I can't say about other occasions due to the rarity of E,lys.

[saint]

Just watched the latest forecast on BBC News and it shows bands of snows passing through EA, the Home Counites, London and then into Kent, Sussex etc.....

[kold weather]

I think it depends where you are....certainly across the southern half of EA its a bit of an upgrade.....having said that 1) it wont forecast the deep convection and forcing as was evident today and 2) its only 1 run of 1 model

Very much agree with TEITS, the showers will spread inland and be pretty widespread through the first part of the evening tomorrow

SK

What does give the whole situation moe confidence is the Fax charts are nearly exactly the same as what the 18z progs, its rather uncanny, even with regards to placement of the other trough to the north of the front...and it really does hang about all day...

If the 18z comes off then no doubt somewhere nails the jackpot 20-25cms I'd have thought

[PureOcean]

Hi all, this is going to be somewhat of a ramble but here goes. Apologies in advance. I hope some of you can put my mind at rest somewhat.

I'm concerned that I may miss out on the action tomorrow night. As you can see I live in Southend, SE Essex at the mouth of the Thames. Now looking at the forecast, obviously there is a good chance my area could be in the firing line for some of the heaviest and prolonged showers, from tomorrow afternoon, right through until Saturday. But, the question on my lips is, will they be of snow and sufficient enough to give a good covering?

Air temps and DP's suggest it could be marginal (not that the charts really matter now) but having the N.Sea to my East and the Thames to my immediate South surely leaves me in a very marginal zone?

Take last Feb's snow for instance. A Thames Streamer setup. In years gone by that would of dumped at least a foot of snow here (we had over 2 foot lying in the 80's-90's from streamers) but we ended up with about 5cm of slush, which is unheard of in such setups. Where as other places further up the Thames had inches and inches of the white stuff. Paul S documented it very well. A freak event or a sign of the even larger teapot here in SE Essex?

I've that nagging feeling that we will see more sleety/wet snow than actual dry snow here again. Whilst I look across the Thames (literally) and see the likes of Sheppy and N. Kent plastered, as seems to have been the case in the last decade.

Now, I know it's all about nowcasting and it's pretty impossible to predict snow. But I would really appreciate an honest answer to my concerns (good or bad!) I think i'm going to take the negative stance, so I won't be too downhearted if we are let down again in this part of the world.

Best of luck to you all with the snow. May you all get a good dumping of the stuff.

Sorry for the ramble and sorry if it has depressed any of you!

Maybe I should get a life. I just want to be able to take my 4yr old sledging and build a decent snowman. And not have to explain again why we miss the snow, but his cousins in N.Essex and W.Essex get it by the bucket load.

I hear your argument but I do not agree with it. I think you are in a good position for most easterly directional snow, being an estuary will always vary on snowfall, and there has been lots of times I have looked across at you from Kent and seen you getting the action. Last year was a one off great event for an area that perhaps would not have seen much in the past, however if you goback in history you have had many a good dump in Southend, Essex including the sea freezing over so I really dont think you have too much to worry about. If you want someone to say you will get snow, then I would say you have as good as chance as most of the south east, I would give your location at least 70 to 80% chance for Thursday evening to see a nice size.

What a lot of people need to remember on here is that some warmth is going to occur tomorrow, this is an important factor also, it shoudl in Essex and Kent get up to between 4 to 5, maybe higher in a few spots and maybe lower in others. The question then comes down to local geography and weather skills as to when you get the snow, i.e. will it be Rain, then sleet then eventually snow or Snow from the offset. In short we really all need the snow to arrive late as possible, the temperatures need to be dropping at ground level and we need to see significant movement. I would say that I believe Kent from Medway drawing a line to Dover and going Eastward standards a 95% chance of a good hit, I would give 75 to 95% to rest of Kent and Sussex and I would give your area of Esses a 70 to 80% chance maybe even higher. Ofcourse this could be total crap by tomorrow mornings, its just too early to be exact! Its a bit like WW2 we just need to see what comes in over the radar as the day progresses... its a waiting game, with out Michael Caine on the phone!

Put it this way, the snow is likely to keep falling from Thursday evening through to well into Friday and then lots of heavy showers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and to be honest then its a 50/50 as to whether it continues all week or changes and warms.... personally I am praying to the almighty lord that this year he lets more snow over more of the south east and that it can hang in there, snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning and as this might be my last Christmas in the United Kingdom as i am moving to the USA with all probability I would like to actually see a WHITE CHRISTMAS in my town that I was born in, because in 38 years it has not happened!

Edited December 16, 2009 by PureOcean

[Optimus Prime]

Well the only time I 'think' I remember seeing a white Christmas was 1996. Certainly just after I awoke to a moderate covering of snow (no more then 5cm) looks fairly interesting this year. Hopefully I'll see something tomorrow although I doubt it.

Nice avatar BTW PureOcean!

[Ocean Transit]

Excellent read Steve. Never seen such a detailed forecast/discussion

Although, I'm unsure which number (1-5) Essex falls under lol

[TEITS]

What does give the whole situation moe confidence is the Fax charts are nearly exactly the same as what the 18z progs, its rather uncanny, even with regards to placement of the other trough to the north of the front...and it really does hang about all day...

If the 18z comes off then no doubt somewhere nails the jackpot 20-25cms I'd have thought

This is my concern.

Looks to me that the shower activity will be to my N i.e Lincs and the frontal snow to my SE. This leaves a relatively dry slot across W parts of E Anglia/E Midlands.

[winterfreak]

FORECAST FOR PERIOD Thurs - Friday

Right click & save I guess

Forecast for SE from 6pm Thurs to 6am Saturday.doc

Thanks

Steve

Thanks Steve. Superb technical analysis and explanation (which means i understood very little of it!) However, much appreciated you took the time and the more tech members will be able to understand better what you've detailed.

[Jason H]

This is my concern.

Looks to me that the shower activity will be to my N i.e Lincs and the frontal snow to my SE. This leaves a relatively dry slot across W parts of E Anglia/E Midlands.

Last minute nerves TEITS. I'm sure you'll do OK!

[Azores Hi]

Living in Ashford, I don't know whether to be scared or jubulent! That old saying comes to mind...be careful what you wish for

Edited December 16, 2009 by Azores Hi

[janetmh71]

This is my concern.

Looks to me that the shower activity will be to my N i.e Lincs and the frontal snow to my SE. This leaves a relatively dry slot across W parts of E Anglia/E Midlands.

Being around 20 miles east of you I hope you are wrong and that we both get some snow

[winterfreak]

Living in Ashford, I don't know whether to be scared or jubulent! That old saying comes to mind...be careful what you wish for

I'm cacking myself that we'll do poorly here......

Edited December 16, 2009 by winterfreak

[Let_it_snow]

FORECAST FOR PERIOD Thurs - Friday

Right click & save I guess

Forecast for SE from 6pm Thurs to 6am Saturday.doc

Thanks

Steve

I really hope when you say 'I think that obviously Northern & eastern parts of the region do the best – with some areas taking a real hammering' that you are talking around the Norwich area?

[nick sussex]

Not sure I agree mate.

The Feb 2nd E,ly was perfectly modelled by the GFS and actually predicted the streamer. The BBC were suggesting heavy snow in my area and yet the GFS suggested very few showers and the GFS was proved right.

However in saying that I can't say about other occasions due to the rarity of E,lys.

If you throw enough dice you're bound to eventually get two sixes! Generally in these situations we know pretty quickly how it's going to develop with the radar returns. And to be honest my advice to everyone is just go with the flow. Sorry thats not very technical but this is the best way otherwise by the time any snow arrives many members will be suffering from nervous exhaustion!

[i luv snow]

Anyways this could be posted instead of an attachment. My laptop is out of action so I'm on my blackberry ! lol

FORECAST FOR PERIOD Thurs - Friday Right click & save I guess Forecast for SE from 6pm Thurs to 6am Saturday.doc Thanks Steve

[runboy]

I really hope when you say 'I think that obviously Northern & eastern parts of the region do the best – with some areas taking a real hammering' that you are talking around the Norwich area?

Ooooooooooohhhh yes, me me me me me me me me me me me

me

After last winter debacle where you could slice a bit of cheese the cut off of snow around Norwich was so sharp and outside of this it was like a winter wonderland..this winter......come on winter......

[Whether Idle]

Hi Steve and others- many thanks for your efforts which are most appreciated.

The BBC forecasts are at odds with your prognosis insofar as they favour a thames valley effect(similar to Feb09) Whether its East kent or the estuarythat takes a hit depends on where the streamer sets up. I dont think we will know for another 24 hours!

8-9 Feb 1983 such a set up produced 60 cms of snow in Capel le Ferne - between Dover and Folkestone(175m asl,) with around 36 hours of continous snowfall, so anything is possible. I expect thundersnow in the early hours of Friday. Final thought - its going to be maddeningly frustrating for many as one gets the feeling wherever the streamers and troughs set up there will be a pasting and very little in other spots. I really cant say with confidence whats going to happen - but thanks again for your efforts!

Edited December 16, 2009 by Whether Idle

[kold weather]

Very interesting Steve...what makes this situation even more interesting then normal is the presence of the front, overnight the GFS beefs this up quite a lot and givne the instalbity that will no doubt be present over the North Sea I can well imagine there could be some very heavy snowfall in places, some places like N.Kent could see training cells embedded in the flow which could see 4-6 inches fall in the space of a couple of hours.

Normally my area doesn't do all that well from NE airflows being right at the end of a fairly decent landtrek but I'm a little more confident this time given the front is so close by it should help give that little bit more forcing to allow the band to make it witohut weakening too much...I'd expect about 3-4 inches over the period locally, but of course it could be more if the precip core moves a little further west then progged.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Thanks Steve, just a query as to where your map with the risk zones is? Otherwise, thanks for an excellent report - hopefully I'm in line to get a decent amount!

[maidstone weather]

Hi Steve and others- many thanks for your efforts which are most appreciated.

The BBC forecasts are at odds with your prognosis insofar as they favour a thames valley effect(similar to Feb09) Whether its East kent or the estuarythat takes a hit depends on where the streamer sets up. I dont think we will know for another 24 hours!

8-9 Feb 1983 such a set up produced 60 cms of snow in Capel le Ferne - between Dover and Folkestone(175m asl,) with around 36 hours of continous snowfall, so anything is possible. I expect thundersnow in the early hours of Friday. Final thought - its going to be maddeningly frustrating for many as one gets the feeling wherever the streamers and troughs set up there will be a pasting and very little in other spots. I really cant say with confidence whats going to happen - but thanks again for your efforts!

No evidence of the Thames Snow Streamer from BBC!? Both BBC and Steve are saying roughly the same thing.

[Southender]

Thanks Steve.

One question though.

Where does SE Essex come on your 1-5 area?

[TEITS]

Last minute nerves TEITS. I'm sure you'll do OK!

Most probably is.

The problem for me is the models are completely at odds with my own thoughts and experiences. Normally under such conditions areas around the Wash do exceptionally well and the snow often extends 30miles inland from the wash, if not more.

So do I go by the models or my own instincts?

Excellent read by the way Steve and thanks for putting the time and effort into the forecast.

Edited December 16, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[kold weather]

This is my concern.

Looks to me that the shower activity will be to my N i.e Lincs and the frontal snow to my SE. This leaves a relatively dry slot across W parts of E Anglia/E Midlands.

Well the thing to remember as you fully know as a veteran here is these things happen to change last minute...whislst I do think the fronts location looks pretty good its quite possible the trough ends up a little further south then progged, its a hard call IMO.