East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4

[winterfreak]

The BBC weather teams xmas party?

I suppose and Rob thinks he's on with Kaddy maybe...

That would explain the grin

[yamkin]

Croydon Council has been issued an updated 'Severe Weather Warning' from the MetO. We are expecting several inches of snow over night into Friday. MetO have also indicated that Sunday/Monday will herald more snow.

All personal will be working around the clock. There is enough salt to sustain what comes to the borough.

[essex coast matt]

frosty start -0.2c, winds light nw at mo, but they will be turning north and picking up then north east later, first rain or hail showers around midday for essex think.

[Met4Cast]

I suggest we ignore Dew Point predictions from the GFS this morning.

They have me at around 1-2c for about this time, and in reality its -0.9c

[Coopsy]

...and so begins what could be a very interesting day for the south east...some are saying historical, only the next 24-48 hours will tell

[Great Plum]

Croydon Council has been issued an updated 'Severe Weather Warning' from the MetO. We are expecting several inches of snow over night into Friday. MetO have also indicated that Sunday/Monday will herald more snow.

All personal will be working around the clock. There is enough salt to sustain what comes to the borough.

My bet is Surrey CC will grit the A25 and then run out of grit!!

[snowbob]

good morning all. as usual bbc local weather playing down the event tonight and tommorrow in surrey has it all changed or is it good to ignore bbc graphics

[Hammer]

Temp 0 with dew point -1.1 on East Herts, West Essex border.

[londonsnow]

as canadiancoops says a very interesting day/night for the southeast. then it's scotland's turn, maybe

[PureOcean]

...and so begins what could be a very interesting day for the south east...some are saying historical, only the next 24-48 hours will tell

I am not 100% sure at this point, not happy with the wind direction at present, not exactly the direction that had been originally chartered, so I am going to spend some hous re-plotting manually this morning and see if it will be that bad. No doubt that some snow will fall in Kent but the current rotations in the north sea are falling short, although I am banking on the warm water to create an effect like in the great lakes in the US (Kind of lake snow effect), where they run lift more moisture and then dump large quantities. Now that is a very good possibility of that for sure, the water is warm compared to air temps, and this makes a big difference compared to late January and February snow when water is coolest.

So I am going to sit on the fence on this one until little later on in the day.

Edited December 17, 2009 by PureOcean

[Nick F]

Still looking good for the SE for a good 24 hrs of snowfall from tonight looking at the 00z GFS and UKMO precipitation charts.

Occlusion doesn't move far during Friday:

I am not 100% sure at this point, not happy with the wind direction at present, not exactly the direction that had been originally chartered, so I am going to spend some hous re-plotting manually this morning and see if it will be that bad. No doubt that some snow will fall in Kent but the current rotations in the north sea are falling short, although I am banking on the warm water to create an effect like in the great lakes in the US (Kind of lake snow effect), where they run lift more moisture and then dump large quantities. Now that is a very good possibility of that for sure, the water is warm compared to air temps, and this makes a big difference compared to late January and February snow when water is coolest.

So I am going to sit on the fence on this one until little later on in the day.

Alot of snow is likely to be tied into lift along the occlusion, so wind direction shouldn't be too much of a problem - uplift created by the discontinuity of the coast to that of the flat sea will help too.

There's a danger that right on the coast you may have sleet and wet snow given SSTs in the south N Sea are around 9-10C, no problem inland though.

[suffolkboy_]

Still looking good for the SE for a good 24 hrs of snowfall from tonight looking at the 00z GFS and UKMO precipitation charts.

Occlusion doesn't move far during Friday:

Perfect, bang over my village!

[PureOcean]

Still looking good for the SE for a good 24 hrs of snowfall from tonight looking at the 00z GFS and UKMO precipitation charts.

Occlusion doesn't move far during Friday:

Alot of snow is likely to be tied into lift along the occlusion, so wind direction shouldn't be too much of a problem - uplift created by the discontinuity of the flat sea to that of the coast will help too.

There's a danger that right on the coast you may have sleet and wet snow given SSTs in the south N Sea are around 9-10C, no problem inland though.

Yep agreed with all points, still keeps me active on the charts.

[Hammer]

I am not 100% sure at this point, not happy with the wind direction at present, not exactly the direction that had been originally chartered, so I am going to spend some hous re-plotting manually this morning and see if it will be that bad. No doubt that some snow will fall in Kent but the current rotations in the north sea are falling short, although I am banking on the warm water to create an effect like in the great lakes in the US (Kind of lake snow effect), where they run lift more moisture and then dump large quantities. Now that is a very good possibility of that for sure, the water is warm compared to air temps, and this makes a big difference compared to late January and February snow when water is coolest.

So I am going to sit on the fence on this one until little later on in the day.

Please explain, both re wind direction and why current conditions are wrong. Seems like it's all looking very good for region.

[BUSHY]

Short spell of light snow here 5 min ago.

[Mikel Nimbus]

Just been snowing in Welwyn Garden City aswell giving a light covering. This was rather unexpected, perhaps convection forecasts underestimated the potential? Anyhow, more towering shower clouds on the horizon heading our way!

Edited December 17, 2009 by Mikel Nimbus

[Neilsouth]

Good morning all , i had a rough night

But anyway how is it looking , worth staying up?

[ISAAC]

Nice to see reports of snow showers already. Can only be good news for us midlanders.

[Rich44]

Hmmm not very cold here at all this morning at 4C and had a shower of something sleety/hail earlier but the sky is clearing at the moment hopefully not a sign of things to come

[Snow Queen one]

Good morning all , i had a rough night

But anyway how is it looking , worth staying up?

Don't know just saw a bit of tumbleweed roll across the screen. really quiet in here at the mo.

[Coast]

Don't know just saw a bit of tumbleweed roll across the screen. really quiet in here at the mo.

Good Morning Y'Majesty!

I suspect that will change during today

[Rich44]

I reckon everyone is in bed after snowwatch last night lol

Oh and btw you should see the speed the clouds are moving - crikey

Edited December 17, 2009 by Rich44

[Shunter]

Light showers showers forming and moving into EA and SE. Radar shows readily turning to sleet and snow as they enter the Thames Estuary.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Neilsouth]

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

Lightning reported in the north sea

[donna-m]

Morning all,,well hope everyones in for a exciting long day!!! i'm off to finish my christmas shopping this morning so i can get stuck to radar all evening/night

Its was raining here till about 2am finally stopping, now i have clear sunny skys and frost on the floor. temps dropped to 0c after reaching a staggering 3c at 2am, can't tell how my dew points are as my local weather station off line( always does in exciting weather)

Anyway best get these kiddies to school