East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4

[Coopsy]

With my experience here in Canada from lake effect snow, the similiar effects from the North Sea in Kent/Essex will mean some places may well see 30cm's, while down the road some might only see 5cm's. Now thats only talking about the sea effect, obviously there are front's, convective showers etc, which will increase totals across the board for most places come Friday morning IMO

[Southender]

How on earth can a Thames streamer setup in a NE flow?!

It needs to be E or ENE at worst.

[Paul Sherman]

For people worrying you only need to look back to Page 9 to see 5 seperate posts from myself, Nick Sussex, Steve Murr, Kold Weather and Nick F that are all singing from the same hymn sheet, we have all said exactly the same and exactly the same times.

Put the prozac away guys

[saint]

For people worrying you only need to look back to Page 9 to see 5 seperate posts from myself, Nick Sussex, Steve Murr, Kold Weather and Nick F that are all singing from the same hymn sheet, we have all said exactly the same and exactly the same times.

Put the prozac away guys

:lol::lol:

I still have no idea, but I have hope and if nothing happens.......oh well.:lol:

[Snowy Bob]

I'm cacking myself that we'll do poorly here......

Ditto here. I've had too many disappointments in recent years to get excited until it arrives!

Very informative read is that guide to tomorrow night, Steve.

[Whether Idle]

No evidence of the Thames Snow Streamer from BBC!? Both BBC and Steve are saying roughly the same thing.

Not so - Ive just watched Rob McElwee on BBC News channel and he had the snow falling from s.essex/northwest kent down into surrey, east and west sussex.

He mentioned these places by name and talked about the snow, quote, "setting up in the estuary"

So, clearly, its still not settled because either the BBC are blinded by the events of feb 09 OR the low will go further west and draw in more of an ENEly(or not!)

Edited December 16, 2009 by Whether Idle

[maidstone weather]

Not so - Ive just watched Rob McElwee on BBC News channel and he had the snow falling from s.essex/northwest kent down into surrey, east annd west sussex.

He mentioned these places by name and talked about the snow, quote, "setting up in the estuary"

So, clearly, its still not settled because either the BBC are blinded by the events of feb 09 OR the low will go further west and draw in more of an ENEly(or not!)

Yes but he said affecting The Estuary - not the Thames Valley. Look at the angle of the snow, that is not a classic TSS there, unlike the Feb event which was.

[Optimus Prime]

I think the BBC has copied Steves forecast!

[chilly milly]

Thanks for the forecast Steve, much appreciated. Happy with that, I realise now the home counties will just have to sit and wait...I'm quite used to that.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I see commentors to the Daily Snail's "OMGZZ snow!" story are questioning AGW on the basis of one cold spell.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

FORECAST FOR PERIOD Thurs - Friday

Right click & save I guess

Forecast for SE from 6pm Thurs to 6am Saturday.doc

Thanks

Steve

Still Steve's Forecast, but as a PDF for anyone who doesn't have Word

p.s. I tried to PM you Steve, but I think your message box is full

Forecast for SE from 6pm Thurs to 6am Saturday.pdf

Edited December 16, 2009 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Whether Idle]

Yes but he said affecting The Estuary - not the Thames Valley. Look at the angle of the snow, that is not a classic TSS there, unlike the Feb event which was.

Hi - I think we will have to agree to disagree - but I will contend that the emphasis was further west in the areas Ive described. - Anyhow - its an academic argument and we will have a much better idea in 24 hours time. My personal hope is that the snow is widespread and heavy for as many folk as possible - the kids could do with an early Christmas holiday!

[Southender]

Not so - Ive just watched Rob McElwee on BBC News channel and he had the snow falling from s.essex/northwest kent down into surrey, east and west sussex.

He mentioned these places by name and talked about the snow, quote, "setting up in the estuary"

So, clearly, its still not settled because either the BBC are blinded by the events of feb 09 OR the low will go further west and draw in more of an ENEly(or not!)

Well, well.

Interesting indeed.

Is there a recording of this anywhere yet?

I'm trying hard not to ramp.

But the words Estuary and Streamer and South Essex make it very hard not too.

Looks like you could be right Paul S?...

Cheered me up a bit anyway!

EDIT: Just seen your addition. Mentioning the Western parts of these regions. Not cheered me up!

Edited December 16, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[SMU]

Thanks Steve, just a query as to where your map with the risk zones is? Otherwise, thanks for an excellent report - hopefully I'm in line to get a decent amount!

sorry people didnt add the map-

cheers- this applies to zones 1-5

Steve

[Whether Idle]

sorry people didnt add the map-

cheers- this applies to zones 1-5

Steve

So - Challock gliding club it is then!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

sorry people didnt add the map-

cheers- this applies to zones 1-5

Steve

Thanks Steve, I'm smack bang in zone 1.

Think I might allow myself a wee ramp!

[saint]

thanks Steve, I am nearly into zone 3!(Just about into it) What did that one stand for??? Sorry I have forgot already!:D:D

Edited December 16, 2009 by saint

[winterfreak]

For people worrying you only need to look back to Page 9 to see 5 seperate posts from myself, Nick Sussex, Steve Murr, Kold Weather and Nick F that are all singing from the same hymn sheet, we have all said exactly the same and exactly the same times.

Put the prozac away guys

Just joining Netweather on the cusp of this amazing model run, it has completely engulfed me this last two weeks. The rollercoaster of emotions of the model runs (even if i'm not too sure what you are all going on about), rows with the wife because i'm riveted to this bloody pc, kids nipping at my heels, talk of classic winters including (insert those particular years here), remembering vividly 1987 and 1991 on top of the North downs, wanting sooo much to have some snow at Christmas i don't mind admiting i'm mentally pooped. So although optimistic about this snow, i'm also a realist and, like the England football team, whilst so much has been promised, so very little has ever really been

produced. I am hoping for some winter weather over this Christmas period to cheer ALL winter lovers up!

However.........

[Bolton67]

sorry people didnt add the map-

cheers- this applies to zones 1-5

Steve

Any chance you could move that black line just a bit more west over Northampton.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I live 'tween' counties east Sussex and kent up towards Rolvenden - but, NIMBY as it admittedly is, interesting how that particular forecast appears to exclude my old stomping ground as well as possibly my new one further inland from the same point.

I don't think you can be very specific anyway with this sort of situation. Of course no situation is the same, but whilst some areas will obviously have more snow than others and I'm certainly not a forecaster - but I can't see such stark differences myself from trace to huge depths within such a relatively small space. Other than the western and northern fringes of the risk area which will shrink further and further SE through the latter part of Friday.

Therefore I don't see an 'abingdon' situation late tomorrow and into Friday - on that scale at least - for areas west and south of Ashford into south west Kent bordering East susses area (eg me) until points west into west sussex when the snow apparently peps up again - at least in my own humble opinion

Edit - the Rob Mc K forecast includes south kent/east sussex. At the moment it looks like a similar flow of winds to the Dec 05 easterly - whci was a good trajectory for that part of the world. Hence why I would disagree

Edited December 16, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Night all.

[winterfreak]

sorry people didnt add the map-

cheers- this applies to zones 1-5

Steve

In case i'm being thick is 1 the highest chance with 5 being the lowest.....?

[saint]

10:35 BBC forecast on in a minute........ From Rob I think aswell.

[Ocean Transit]

Well well, 18Z UKMO of the NAE is even more impressive.

More 'heavy snow' symbols then the 12Z run from Great Yarmouth down to Guildford. Kent looks to take a battering as the front stalls during Friday.

Upgrade alert!

[John Snow]

I am too far west for this, expecting dandruff at best but see how things develop, might take a drive into Kent and book into a Travelodge for the night and watch the action