Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Finally back online.

Anyway, have had light, sometimes moderate snow for last 90 minutes, which was totally unexpected, the snow has settled on the roads and car, only a dusting though and around 1cm fresh on the already lying snow.

Same here, from the radar it looks like a very thin streamer which we just happened to be in the path of. Quite lucky really

[Rob W]

Same here, from the radar it looks like a very thin streamer which we just happened to be in the path of. Quite lucky really

I was quite surprised, having seen the forecast and there being no mention of it, to see snow falling here

[Schnee]

How is the snow looking over the weekend?

Is it meant to snow still, tomorrow night?

[Just Before Dawn]

Nice little stream of light snow showers over us and heading our way - they don't look especially beefy, but they have put down a fresh dusting and we have very light snow at the moment.

[Lewis]

How is the snow looking over the weekend?

Is it meant to snow still, tomorrow night?

Not as good, the northerly is a toppler, introduced warmer 850's to -4, think it's gunna be too marginal.

Dews also on the plus side when the precip hits at 9pm, then half way through they sink below 0..

Lewis

[fazzafarrand]

Not as good, the northerly is a toppler, introduced warmer 850's to -4, think it's gunna be too marginal.

Dews also on the plus side when the precip hits at 9pm, then half way through they sink below 0..

Lewis

Not a cloud in the sky at the moment but a very hard frost settling in...............

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

Not as good, the northerly is a toppler, introduced warmer 850's to -4, think it's gunna be too marginal.

Dews also on the plus side when the precip hits at 9pm, then half way through they sink below 0..

Lewis

How is the northerly a toppler? ... the 850's it brings in are not around -4 to -5 for long, maybe an hour at best if at all.

[Lewis]

How is the northerly a toppler? ... the 850's it brings in are not around -4 to -5 for long, maybe an hour at best if at all.

yeah but think about it, temps rising to around 3-4c with the warmer uppers, precipitation at its heaviest is when the higher 850's are here and +2 dew points, you really think we'll see accumulations from that?

Lewis

Edited December 18, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[Just Before Dawn]

Not as good, the northerly is a toppler, introduced warmer 850's to -4, think it's gunna be too marginal.

Dews also on the plus side when the precip hits at 9pm, then half way through they sink below 0..

Lewis

True - dew points not immediately favourable, but they do get better as the front crosses our area and the 18z does continue with the theme of the heavier precipitation on the eastern side of the pennines, in which case that might help keep things on the right side of marginal given lower ground temps and lying snow will offsset the slightly warmer uppers - I think it might be sleet/wintery mix with back edge snow, particularly over higher ground and in the heavier precipitation.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Just Before Dawn

[Schnee]

Not as good, the northerly is a toppler, introduced warmer 850's to -4, think it's gunna be too marginal.

Dews also on the plus side when the precip hits at 9pm, then half way through they sink below 0..

Lewis

Sounds about right, though keep an open mind till the last possible moment. After all, anything can happen (or am I just hoping for anything to happen lol....).

[Lewis]

Sounds about right, though keep an open mind till the last possible moment. After all, anything can happen (or am I just hoping for anything to happen lol....).

You should see snow all the way through, it's just areas to the east (East riding of Yorkshire, and N Lincolnshire)

Still things could change, a lot of people talking about it being a possible outlier on the model output thread.

Lewis

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

yeah but think about it, temps rising to around 3-4c with the warmer uppers, precipitation at its heaviest is when the higher 850's are here and +2 dew points, you really think we'll see accumulations from that?

Lewis

Admittedly, places on or near to the coast may struggle to see any settling snow, but you could expect this due to the warm north sea nearby. However, for other places, dew points max out between 0 and 1 in the very east of the region, and less the further west you go, we are all sub 528 dam quite easily, and the uppers raise to about -4 for a short period of time and with cold surface air entrenched, and the ppn arriving at night time, I feel it should be enough to give most areas a decent amount of settling snow.

[Lewis]

Admittedly, places on or near to the coast may struggle to see any settling snow, but you could expect this due to the warm north sea nearby. However, for other places, dew points max out between 0 and 1 in the very east of the region, and less the further west you go, we are all sub 528 dam quite easily, and the uppers raise to about -4 for a short period of time and with cold surface air entrenched, and the ppn arriving at night time, I feel it should be enough to give most areas a decent amount of settling snow.

I agree, and i just hope lady luck is on our side.

Come to think of it i remember the Easter snow event, i think we had -3 to -4 uppers here and it showed the dewpoint's here at 1-2c @ one point, and we had like an inch or two of snow.

Lewis

[Craigers]

Admittedly, places on or near to the coast may struggle to see any settling snow, but you could expect this due to the warm north sea nearby. However, for other places, dew points max out between 0 and 1 in the very east of the region, and less the further west you go, we are all sub 528 dam quite easily, and the uppers raise to about -4 for a short period of time and with cold surface air entrenched, and the ppn arriving at night time, I feel it should be enough to give most areas a decent amount of settling snow.

i agree with you there! i still think its going to be like the 2007 march 22nd event!

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

I agree, and i just hope lady luck is on our side.

Come to think of it i remember the Easter snow event, i think we had -3 to -4 uppers here and it showed the dewpoint's here at 1-2c @ one point, and we had like an inch or two of snow.

Lewis

Yeah, I do hope so. It seems like sometimes you can get situations where the uppers and dews don't seem that favourable if we saw them on the models but have still produced some quite memorable snowfall events ! ... Hopefully what could help the eastern end of the region is that the band looks like it may be heavier the further east you go, so may help to compenseate for the other areas of marginality.

[Craigers]

Yeah, I do hope so. It seems like sometimes you can get situations where the uppers and dews don't seem that favourable if we saw them on the models but have still produced some quite memorable snowfall events ! ... Hopefully what could help the eastern end of the region is that the band looks like it may be heavier the further east you go, so may help to compenseate for the other areas of marginality.

at least sheffield and doncaster will finaly get a covering!

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

at least sheffield and doncaster will finaly get a covering!

Exactly ! only managed a "sugar coating" last night ... the only thing thats worrying me is that from looking at the NMM model, the ppn seems to split and pull away eastwards around the humber. Hopefully this will not be the case, and the bbc and MetO seem pretty bullish about it making its way down the spine of the country.

[Just Before Dawn]

You should see snow all the way through, it's just areas to the east (East riding of Yorkshire, and N Lincolnshire)

Still things could change, a lot of people talking about it being a possible outlier on the model output thread.

Lewis

It certainly isn't an outlier, but it is on the milder side of the ensembles - control run goes even milder, but there is divergence, even at this range, so still all up in the air. Iffy dew points and high SSTs don't help, existing cold ground temps and heavier precipitation does - might just be OK away from the immediate coastal fringe.

On the model front, the synoptics are all over the place with wild divergence on the pressure ensembles from t+72 hours. It's almost impossible to call much beyond Monday at the moment. Pity whoever is doing Country File on Sunday!

[Lewis]

A new streamer is setting it's self up near me, should see some heavy and more prolonged snow shortly

It certainly isn't an outlier, but it is on the milder side of the ensembles - control run goes even milder, but there is divergence, even at this range, so still all up in the air. Iffy dew points and high SSTs don't help, existing cold ground temps and heavier precipitation does - might just be OK away from the immediate coastal fringe.

On the model front, the synoptics are all over the place with wild divergence on the pressure ensembles from t+72 hours. It's almost impossible to call much beyond Monday at the moment. Pity whoever is doing Country File on Sunday!

But still even the earlier runs today did not show a warm sector of 850's yet dews remain the same in + figures on the 18z, there's no modification from the N sea as the wind direction is more of a NNW, so maybe the gfs is just over cooking things?

I hope anyway

lewis

[Craigers]

Exactly ! only managed a "sugar coating" last night ... the only thing thats worrying me is that from looking at the NMM model, the ppn seems to split and pull away eastwards around the humber. Hopefully this will not be the case, and the bbc and MetO seem pretty bullish about it making its way down the spine of the country.

thats what happend with that march easter event as sheffield only had 3cm and here in doncaster had 7cm.

Hope that doesnt happen!

[Just Before Dawn]

Looks good for us too - the stream of showers coming off the North Sea have us in the firing line, they're also starting to beef up a little. Plus the Met radar showing a good couple of hours worth of moderate shower cells over the North Sea heading in our general direction. Pretty impressive.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

thats what happend with that march easter event as sheffield only had 3cm and here in doncaster had 7cm.

Hope that doesnt happen!

I hope so but c'est la vie if it does ! ... I remember quite a few of the more marginal times when I've got some significant snow here due to my elevation and you've been stuck with a slushy covering that quickly thawed. It's all swings and roundabouts ! But let's hope we both get a good solid covering for a change.

[Schnee]

I just want to see snow slide off the roof one more time then i'll be happy.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

A new streamer is setting it's self up near me, should see some heavy and more prolonged snow shortly

But still even the earlier runs today did not show a warm sector of 850's yet dews remain the same in + figures on the 18z, there's no modification from the N sea as the wind direction is more of a NNW, so maybe the gfs is just over cooking things?

I hope anyway

lewis

Looking at the NMM model, it shows more clearly that there is only a very thin wedge of -5 upper air before the ppn, but that doesnt reach completely across the region, with in eastern areas, such as yours, the 850's only drop to -6.

[Just Before Dawn]

A new streamer is setting it's self up near me, should see some heavy and more prolonged snow shortly

But still even the earlier runs today did not show a warm sector of 850's yet dews remain the same in + figures on the 18z, there's no modification from the N sea as the wind direction is more of a NNW, so maybe the gfs is just over cooking things?

I hope anyway

lewis

It's entirely possible, and it's worth noting that both UKMO and ECM look less marginal than the 18z GFS, so it's by no means a given that tomorrow night will be the wrong side of marginal, even in the east. Agree about SSTs, wind direction means no air moderation, but it will keep ground temps slightly raised in areas within a couple of km from the coast - however the progged heavier ppn should cancel that out.

Out of our patch, but I've a mate in Wisbech, Cambs and he rang me up earlier to say he needs another inch of snow to get the best depths he's had since the winter of 1996. He's been in the firing line for what looks like a decent Wash streamer for the last two hours, so it goes to show what a remarkable event this is turning out to be. And it's still December.

Edited December 19, 2009 by Just Before Dawn