Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Schnee]

You must have had longer than that, last year we had 2 weeks in December, and 2 weeks in Feb.

I think it lasted around a week in Feb. This one is here to stay till it warms up

[Paul]

Evening all, just a quick reminder that you need to abide by the rules of the forum when posting here, the key part of which is showing other members respect - that includes both the people you may be directly responding to and also those wanting to read or take part in a discussion that is based on the topic in hand.

It's Boxing day, the team aren't on here as much as usual and frankly don't need to be wasting time on dealing with those who should know better when it comes to how to behave. As such, any further issues in this thread (or indeed any others) are likely to result in those involved being stopped from posting until the new year.

[Schnee]

Thank you Paul. It was getting hard to follow the topic in hand in here over the last few days.

[Cheese Rice]

Took some pics in Leeds center today (30M ASL), in late afternoon. The river was frozen which was surprising.

Snow cover not doing too badly.

The river is frozen

[Schnee]

Nice pictures. Not been in Leeds centre since it went as part of the North East patch at work (don't ask)

[Cheese Rice]

Can't say I'm too fussed about the low pressure system everyones going crazy about, I don't think we have ever done well from a system approaching from the south as the PPN is always very patchy by the time it reaches here. Most of the intensity is over the midlands in these kinds of situations.

Edited December 26, 2009 by 10123

[Schnee]

Well, to the south there's the Peak District, To the west there's the Pennines and to the north there's the North York Moors.

Really, the best chance for us in Leeds is a proper Easterly or a random event. The latter was responsible for the last big dumping here in Crossgates in late January 1995.

We still get snow from other directions but over the last few years it's only been showers.

[arnott]

Morning all, still snow cover here. Thawing all the time as its raining but just hoping it makes it through to tonight to freeze again. dont knw wht to make of the following week really. Looked promising esp after the itv weather last night warning of severe weather across the country next week but the moels dnt really seem to have a clue so its all in the balance. Wouldnt we all just love some very heavy snowfall though for a change

[Mark Bayley]

Still a little snow on the ground, however only in the corners were its drifted or in the shade.

Next weeks low looks interesting. I'm still saying that the low is going to be far south for us, like the ECM. UKMO is probably the best for us giving quite a bit of snow. The GFS would give us some snow to start with before it turned to rain! Take your pick. The GFS has the least support this morning. I shall side with the ECM and the GEM (The GEM because its been quite consistent these past couple of days)

And carry on posting SFL, you make some good contributions to this thread

I will really need to check my posts before posting

Edited December 27, 2009 by mark bayley

[Schnee]

It's all confusing in the model thread. I'm sure most are looking if it'll be an event for the south.

I'm just going to watch the news at 11.55 and see what they say.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Stelmer

[Harsh Climate]

Still a little snow on the ground, however only in the corners were its drifted or in the shade.

Next weeks low looks interesting. I'm still saying that the low is going to be far south for us, like the ECM. UKMO is probably the best for us giving quite a bit of snow. The GFS would give us some snow to start with before it turned to rain! Take your pick. The GFS has the least support this morning. I shall side with the ECM and the GEM (The GEM because its been quite consistent these past couple of days)

And carry on posting SFL, you make some good contributions to this thread

I will really need to check my posts before posting

Not if the latest GFS is to be believed, it shows it probably too far north of us, then that has a terrible knock on effect to the rest of the run...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn724.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

Im really torn between whether I want the low further south or north. From a selfish point of view, further north increases our chance of snow, but further south increses the chance oof a lengthier better cold spell

I think some one inbetween where the heavy precititation just reaches harrogate/york before pushing back south would be the best scenario

[Harsh Climate]

It's all confusing in the model thread. I'm sure most are looking if it'll be an event for the south.

I'm just going to watch the news at 11.55 and see what they say.

It would be nice to see what we see on the weather for the week ahead but Id take it with a pinch of salt at the moment..

They will use many words like UNCERTAIN, COULD, MIGHT, POSSIBLE, untill they know where tuesdays low is heading, from after tuesday on a regional level is almost impossible to forecast..

[Mark Bayley]

Not if the latest GFS is to be believed, it shows it probably too far north of us, then that has a terrible knock on effect to the rest of the run...

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn724.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1621.png

Im really torn between whether I want the low further south or north. From a selfish point of view, further north increases our chance of snow, but further south increses the chance oof a lengthier better cold spell

I think some one inbetween where the heavy precititation just reaches harrogate/york before pushing back south would be the best scenario

The GFS has very little support and not one other model agrees with how north its taking it! Its a tough one to call. I am fairly confident that GFS will backtrack towards the ECM or UKMO solution. Probably all the models agreeing on something in between (UKMO and ECM). So the main snow never really making it to us but better prospects in the longer term. Will be interesting to see the meto update. To be honest the GFS is the worst than the ECM which brings us no snow (from that low)! Although the GFS brings us some leading edge snow it will quickly turn to rain and melt, watching snow turn to rain is horrible :lol: .

[Harsh Climate]

The GFS has very little support and not one other model agrees with how north its taking it! Its a tough one to call. I am fairly confident that GFS will backtrack towards the ECM or UKMO solution. Probably all the models agreeing on something in between (UKMO and ECM). So the main snow never really making it to us but better prospects in the longer term. Will be interesting to see the meto update. To be honest the GFS is the worst than the ECM which brings us no snow (from that low)! Although the GFS brings us some leading edge snow it will quickly turn to rain and melt, watching snow turn to rain is horrible .

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091227/06/t850West~Yorkshire.png

Ye spot on, the 6z one of the mildest :lol:

Yep, snow turning to raing is the worst thing ever, especially if it was to stay as snow in scotland..

[Schnee]

Oohhh interesting forecast.

We could get lots of snow or we could miss the snow. Just depends on how far north the PPN gets on Wednesday.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Rather surprisingly what started out as heavy sleet has not turned to heavy snow. Won't last long but always nice to see snow falling !

[arnott]

hmm interesting weather for the week ahead. could like someone said get a good dump of snow on wednesday but i have the gut feeling it will just affect the midlands n then we would be left with very little but full of potential!!

[Harsh Climate]

hmm interesting weather for the week ahead. could like someone said get a good dump of snow on wednesday but i have the gut feeling it will just affect the midlands n then we would be left with very little but full of potential!!

If we were to go on past snow events like next tue/wed, history says the precipiation never really reaches past the humber northwards... Its places like sheffield who tend to do well and for that reason Im not getting too excited yet

[Schnee]

I'm off down to the Midlands on Wednesday to help a friend revive his restored buses. Just need to keep an eye on how bad it's meant to get on the way home.

EDIT:

Found an interesting webcam:

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/ Cat & Fiddle webcam on the A537.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Stelmer

[Lewis]

hmm interesting weather for the week ahead. could like someone said get a good dump of snow on wednesday but i have the gut feeling it will just affect the midlands n then we would be left with very little but full of potential!!

Up to now the models are chopping and changing, the ECM is the colder of the members taking a look at the ensembles, with the GFS being over progressive shunting the LP system further North over us, then filling out, pushing the colder air to the N and NE of us away, stopping a potent NE'rly or Easterly breaking out.

The GFS may seem progressive, but it was so in the last cold snap we just had, but it was on the ball throughout, and the output was very consistent.

Taking a look at the GFS, conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday look very marginal indeed, with the LP shunted further North, our areas drag in the warmer sector of the LP, making dews, isotherm and also the 500-1000 Thickness poor.

Here is what the GFS shows at the crucial time of any precipitation;

850 temps, average to marginal at best;

Thickness 500-1000 - I won't comment

Dew points - Extremely marginal

Lewis

Edited December 27, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[snowlover2009]

If we were to go on past snow events like next tue/wed, history says the precipiation never really reaches past the humber northwards... Its places like sheffield who tend to do well and for that reason Im not getting too excited yet

sorry but these systems were the ones that brought huge dumps of snow here when my mum was a child. so i don't see how these systems always have to never reach much above the humber

[Mark Bayley]

Up to now the models are chopping and changing, the ECM is the colder of the members taking a look at the ensembles, with the GFS being over progressive shunting the LP system further North over us, then filling out, pushing the colder air to the N and NE of us away, stopping a potent NE'rly or Easterly breaking out.

The GFS may seem progressive, but it was so in the last cold snap we just had, but it was on the ball throughout, and the output was very consistent.

Taking a look at the GFS, conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday look very marginal indeed, with the LP shunted further North, our areas drag in the warmer sector of the LP, making dews, isotherm and also the 500-1000 Thickness poor.

Here is what the GFS shows at the crucial time of any precipitation;

UKMO looks much better for us, especially during the heavier precipitation during T72, that would be snow for most of us

T72

The ECM on the other hand is not so good (Short term ONLY)

T72

Perhaps something in between the ECM and UKMO, The GFS is on its own. No other model agrees with it. for this reason i expect it to come back in line with the euros

[arnott]

sorry but these systems were the ones that brought huge dumps of snow here when my mum was a child. so i don't see how these systems always have to never reach much above the humber

they never really seem to get above sheffield. hes right. i remember three occasions in the space of a week a few years bk when the precipitation pushed north but became lighter in nature and kinda stalled over south yorkshire giving the leeds area occasional flurries

[Lewis]

UKMO looks much better for us, especially during the heavier precipitation during T72, that would be snow for most of us

Perhaps something in between the ECM and UKMO, The GFS is on its own. No other model agrees with it. for this reason i expect it to come back in line with the euros

There is no denying that the UKMO is what we want to see, i would take that now lol.

GFS is on it's own at the moment, but during the last cold snap we did have this same problem, the models struggling to come into agreement, when 12 hours into reliable time frame they started coming into agreement, the GFS was showing something different, and then the Euros came inline with the GFS, i just hope this time we end up with a mixture of the ECM short term and the UKMO.

I think the ECM later today will confirm it. Fingers crossed the GFS falls into line with the UKMO and ECM.

Lewis

Edited December 27, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[Mark Bayley]

There is no denying that the UKMO is what we want to see, i would take that now lol.

GFS is on it's own at the moment, but during the last cold snap we did have this same problem, the models struggling to come into agreement, when 12 hours into reliable time frame they started coming into agreement, the GFS was showing something different, and then the Euros came inline with the GFS, i just hope this time we end up with a mixture of the ECM short term and the UKMO.

I think the ECM later today will confirm it. Fingers crossed the GFS falls into line with the UKMO and ECM.

Lewis

I would agree about the GFS doing well during the last cold spell! I to would love the UKMO to come off! The ideal would be something in between the ECM and UKMO with the ECM for the longer term. Glad to see you posting again!