East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[simon65]

snowing in Leighton buzzard

Current data for Linslade

02 January 2010 19:55:03

Temperature (°C):

Current 1.8

Trend (per hour) -0.1

Average today 1.1

Wind chill 1.8

Heat Index 1.8

Dew Point -0.6

Rel Humidity 84%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 3.1 E

Average Speed 0.0 E

Pressure (mb):

Current 1017.4

Trend (per hour) +0.6

Edited January 2, 2010 by simon65

[Jayces]

Thanks for the replies.

A few days ago Croydon (S London) town centre was brought to a standstill for about 4 hours after 5 cm fell in a short period of time.

We also benefited in Feb 09 from the Thames Streamer and I measured 30cm of level snow on flatg surfaces in my garden and in the road. Understandably as far as travel was concerned nothing was moving apart form the odd crazy motorist.

In both cases though within hours for the first and a couple of days on the second things were back to some sort of normality as the snow stopped / melted and the gritters could do their work.

If I am reading the model thread correctly though we are talking about days of snow rather then one event which I guess is where the armageddon thing comes from as it woulod most likely mean repeated disruption.

I guess it's because we are not used to it but as always you have to ask why we come to a standstill here in the capital city of our country at the slightest covering when other citoes in other countries have several feet of snow and just shrug it off.

Anyway, looking forward to some extra time off though I can work from home unfortunately

[wee]

So can anyone say if here in Brighton we are going to get any of the white stuff or is it just going to stay cold???

[kold weather]

That flow looks great for Kent, East Anglia and the Wash - but it's still only just east of North IMO; I'd expect a few flurries here and maybe even a few cms, but for the real deal we'd still need an organised trough for my area (East Surrey) given that wind direction. There's a good chance though that that will happen, but not enough to give me high confidence yet - hope that makes some sense.

Looks like a great set up don't get me wrong, I'm just trying to keep my feet on the ground until I see some decent troughs on the faxes - or an ENE wind forecast (actually lunch time tomorrow might just deliver for a few hours on that basis).

See I'd call that a solid NE airflow in terms of actual compass bearings...however I do agree with your basic point. I'm actually meant to be going to Guildford between the 7-9th so will be most interesting to see what comes off. The set-up progged by both the GFS and the ECM would make it a difficult, if not dangerous journey home however it has to be said.

I'm pretty confident as well that flow would give several troughs as well, its basically a cyclonic flow and indeed both the GFS/ECM try and develop a secondary depression as well which at the very least could pep up convection, at the very most bring in a frontal system of its own...

[Neilsouth]

Rain and sleet , no snow... was that forecast?

[SussexmarkyMark]

See I'd call that a solid NE airflow in terms of actual compass bearings...however I do agree with your basic point. I'm actually meant to be going to Guildford between the 7-9th so will be most interesting to see what comes off. The set-up progged by both the GFS and the ECM would make it a difficult, if not dangerous journey home however it has to be said.

I'm pretty confident as well that flow would give several troughs as well, its basically a cyclonic flow and indeed both the GFS/ECM try and develop a secondary depression as well which at the very least could pep up convection, at the very most bring in a frontal system of its own...

I have to say I'm finding this all a bit confusing. The netweather 10 day outlook (which I believe is from the GFS output) whilst showing over 90% chance of snow for Brighton on most days this week (including tomorrow), the actual quantity is shown at just 1 or 2 mm - not enough to cause any problem at all. At the same time, you say that GFS suggests travel would be difficult in the SE for 7-9th, or do you believe it is just an EA, Essex, Kent event ?

[Kay]

I have to say I'm finding this all a bit confusing. The netweather 10 day outlook (which I believe is from the GFS output) whilst showing over 90% chance of snow for Brighton on most days this week (including tomorrow), the actual quantity is shown at just 1 or 2 mm - not enough to cause any problem at all. At the same time, you say that GFS suggests travel would be difficult in the SE for 7-9th, or do you believe it is just an EA, Essex, Kent event ?

and following on from that will Ashford get any good amounts this time around????

[true blue]

I have to say I'm finding this all a bit confusing. The netweather 10 day outlook (which I believe is from the GFS output) whilst showing over 90% chance of snow for Brighton on most days this week (including tomorrow), the actual quantity is shown at just 1 or 2 mm - not enough to cause any problem at all. At the same time, you say that GFS suggests travel would be difficult in the SE for 7-9th, or do you believe it is just an EA, Essex, Kent event ?

to be honest its not that confusing no one and that includes meto really knows how much snow will fall on what day this is were the saying radar watching comes into the equation

[BarnetBlizzard]

I'm starting to get bored by this model discussion. Snow in 4 days. 4 days later, oh no snow in 3 days don't worry. 3 days later still no snow. It seems that the whole of the country just received some kind of precipitation except for me and similar areas. Can please someone just tell me when i should suspect to see some snow or will it still be 4 days away?

[true blue]

I'm starting to get bored by this model discussion. Snow in 4 days. 4 days later, oh no snow in 3 days don't worry. 3 days later still no snow. It seems that the whole of the country just received some kind of precipitation except for me and similar areas. Can please someone just tell me when i should suspect to see some snow or will it still be 4 days away?

ditto as above

[dubmuffin]

I'm starting to get bored by this model discussion. Snow in 4 days. 4 days later, oh no snow in 3 days don't worry. 3 days later still no snow. It seems that the whole of the country just received some kind of precipitation except for me and similar areas. Can please someone just tell me when i should suspect to see some snow or will it still be 4 days away?

know the feeling, it's always just out of reach...but i'm still hooked and hopeful

[yamkin]

Thanks for the replies.

A few days ago Croydon (S London) town centre was brought to a standstill for about 4 hours after 5 cm fell in a short period of time.

We also benefited in Feb 09 from the Thames Streamer and I measured 30cm of level snow on flatg surfaces in my garden and in the road. Understandably as far as travel was concerned nothing was moving apart form the odd crazy motorist.

In both cases though within hours for the first and a couple of days on the second things were back to some sort of normality as the snow stopped / melted and the gritters could do their work.

If I am reading the model thread correctly though we are talking about days of snow rather then one event which I guess is where the armageddon thing comes from as it woulod most likely mean repeated disruption.

I guess it's because we are not used to it but as always you have to ask why we come to a standstill here in the capital city of our country at the slightest covering when other citoes in other countries have several feet of snow and just shrug it off.

Anyway, looking forward to some extra time off though I can work from home unfortunately

The MetO did not inform the council that heavy snow would fall for about an hour. MetO only gave a sleet warning!! Anyway, the gritters got there in the end.

I too am wondering how we will all cope with two to three days of continuous snow

Here is Joe B's latest update from AccuWeather..........Very interesting indeed

LOOK OUT ENGLAND, A BAD MOONS A RISING.

POTENTIAL CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM ON THE HORIZON FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND!

Remember, the issuance of major cold was for Jan 1-10 so this is day 2. Judging by some of my email, people dont understand that Jan 1-10 is not Dec 30. Another unfortunate announcement, I cant answer all email.

But there are some big ticket items showing up including the threat of the biggest snows in England in years later next week ( jan 7-12) as major cold is entrenched in much of Europe north of the Alps and west of Italy by Tuesday. Low pressure should develop west of Italy Tuesday and drift northeast, then pull north. This the center of the storm coming up into Germany and the major northeast flow that develops surface to 15,000 ft over England sets the stage for a major nationwide winter event for later next week. The cold is major enough, but the threat of snows for much of northwest Europe all the way into France the next 10 days are such that this really could be sticking out like a frozen soar thumb. The slow movement west and deep easterly flow means a 3-5 day event that could tax England's ability to combat winter weather. Its as ugly as I have seen a set up as the Scandinavian high sets up west east to the north and keeps cold air flowing westward with the cyclonic disturbance turning west under England. It will be interesting to see what other private sources ( Piers Corbyn, the The Weather Outlook) are saying here and as one who wants people as up on things as possible, I would recommend seeing their opinions. This column is not meant to go for individual weather events, but this kind of event could be the winter storm of a life time for alot of northwest Europe I would rather be perfect on any idea, but if I have to be wrong, I would rather be overdone on this because I am nervous about the complacency over the years as far as the threat of the kind of winter weather that was common years many many years ago, and may become more common in the near future.

The storm will start in France first as arctic air spreads back southwest tom night and Monday and the upper feature moves east first through Spain. Its a wild set up

In the meantime keep warm! Southeast Europe, from the Balkans southeast are overall mild in this pattern as I emphasized in the issuances this is a big 3 industrial area of the world, far east, the plains east on the US and northern and eastern Europe that is in the tank.

It could be interesting for the dairy farmers out there. I mean what do you do when its so cold your cows are giving ice cream instead of milk (lol)?

I hope the energy people in Europe understand what they are dealing with this winter.

Lets get this party started

So the great coldest opening 10 days since the 80s in the big 3 northern hemisphere energy areas challenge has begun. Our reps are Berlin, London, NYC Chicago, and for eastern Asia, Seoul ( Garrett convinced me to use Seoul because one of his friends comes from there) and Bejing.

Berlin started at -3 London -7. NYC at plus 4 Chicago -12 Seoul -8 Bejing was -1 This gives us day one of the forecast period for the 6 test cities at -4.5

[clark3r]

I'm starting to get bored by this model discussion. Snow in 4 days. 4 days later, oh no snow in 3 days don't worry. 3 days later still no snow. It seems that the whole of the country just received some kind of precipitation except for me and similar areas. Can please someone just tell me when i should suspect to see some snow or will it still be 4 days away?

same here! wednesday to me looks the best chance! then the showers after that are to unpredictable to me! what i would hope for is that the run of showers would run across the south east any where east of the isle of wight! but my gut feeling is this is going to be reserved for kent!

[Ben_Cambs]

So can anyone say if here in Brighton we are going to get any of the white stuff or is it just going to stay cold???

Well it depends on what happens within 24 hours beforehand. Snow is very difficult to forecast but I suspect at some stage you will see snow

[SussexmarkyMark]

to be honest its not that confusing no one and that includes meto really knows how much snow will fall on what day this is were the saying radar watching comes into the equation

You misunderstand. I'm not confused about the quantity of snow. I was confused by the fact that the NetWeather site said almost zero snow (based on the GFS) and the previous poster was expecting travel problems (based on the GFS output). There is only one GFS output, so it can only be showing one thing.

[Neilsouth]

I'm starting to get bored by this model discussion. Snow in 4 days. 4 days later, oh no snow in 3 days don't worry. 3 days later still no snow. It seems that the whole of the country just received some kind of precipitation except for me and similar areas. Can please someone just tell me when i should suspect to see some snow or will it still be 4 days away?

I've been saying that for the last two weeks! , ever since the first cold spell started... always , snow this weekend.... snow next week.... oh but the week after looks good

Lets get some accuracy here people!

[yamkin]

same here! wednesday to me looks the best chance! then the showers after that are to unpredictable to me! what i would hope for is that the run of showers would run across the south east any where east of the isle of wight! but my gut feeling is this is going to be reserved for kent!

Understanding point, but this winter is very different to the milder winters of late. We are in a cold to very cold period lasting all of next week with the potential of lasting longer, so the potential of snow is more probable.

[Neilsouth]

PubliusEnigma , i like being called stupid when

1) I've never moaned about the snow causing problems on the road

2) I don't put the salt/grit down the council has control of that... so lumping me with those is wrong!

[saint]

I don't like being called a bad driver either!

[maidstone weather]

PubliusEnigma , i like being called stupid when

1) I've never moaned about the snow causing problems on the road

2) I don't put the salt/grit down the council has control of that... so lumping me with those is wrong!

They weren't blaming you directly Neil!

To an extent I'd agree with them.

[Ben_Cambs]

Appears that another day of light snow has been forecast for my location for next Thursday by the BBC

[BarnetBlizzard]

Hi, Im from Norway, well at least I lived there for 12 years back in the 70's 80's. It makes me laugh out loud when I read the English moaning about the problems they have with snow. Its quite simple to fix really. I could tell you in one paragraph how to cope with it and fix the prolbem. So I will.

01. You use the WRONG salt. You have to use a mix of salt and GRIT. Why ? Because you have the wrong tyupe of snow in UK.

You have Wet snow which melts during the day and turns to ice in at the night. You need the GRIT in the salt which breaks up the ice when you drives on it. And then the salt melts it.

02 You put TONNES of salt down before the snow is forecast, but it usually rains first and then turns to snow after. This is a waste of time. Are you English really stupid ? You have to put salt and grit as the snow is falling, the rain will wash the salt into the draiins beore the snow comes.

03 You are too arogant and impatient. You drive before the gritters get to all roads and becaue english people are very bad drivers you have a skid or an accident on the road, then the gritter gets stick and cant put the salt and grit down.

The salt and grit is expensive but because you are now a ppoor country your councils are saving monety so they dont buy the salt and grit combination.

OK so you have bad luck with Wet snow. ( If you have powder snow its so easy like we have as you can blow it from the roads

with snow plows ). But your real problem is too tight with money, and also that you are bad drivers. you blame the governments but its your own fault .

One day

Bit harsh, if you hate the Uk so much why don't you a Norway weather forum.

[Ben_Cambs]

I wouldnt use PPN charts for 4/5 days away. Its has been proven many times in the past the GFS underestimates North Sea Convection. They predicted little on 2nd February and looked at what happened! I wouldnt go predicting snow amounts just yet....

[80sWeather]

The MetO did not inform the council that heavy snow would fall for about an hour. MetO only gave a sleet warning!! Anyway, the gritters got there in the end.

I too am wondering how we will all cope with two to three days of continuous snow

Here is Joe B's latest update from AccuWeather..........Very interesting indeed

LOOK OUT ENGLAND, A BAD MOONS A RISING.

POTENTIAL CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM ON THE HORIZON FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND!

Remember, the issuance of major cold was for Jan 1-10 so this is day 2. Judging by some of my email, people dont understand that Jan 1-10 is not Dec 30. Another unfortunate announcement, I cant answer all email.

But there are some big ticket items showing up including the threat of the biggest snows in England in years later next week ( jan 7-12) as major cold is entrenched in much of Europe north of the Alps and west of Italy by Tuesday. Low pressure should develop west of Italy Tuesday and drift northeast, then pull north. This the center of the storm coming up into Germany and the major northeast flow that develops surface to 15,000 ft over England sets the stage for a major nationwide winter event for later next week. The cold is major enough, but the threat of snows for much of northwest Europe all the way into France the next 10 days are such that this really could be sticking out like a frozen soar thumb. The slow movement west and deep easterly flow means a 3-5 day event that could tax England's ability to combat winter weather. Its as ugly as I have seen a set up as the Scandinavian high sets up west east to the north and keeps cold air flowing westward with the cyclonic disturbance turning west under England. It will be interesting to see what other private sources ( Piers Corbyn, the The Weather Outlook) are saying here and as one who wants people as up on things as possible, I would recommend seeing their opinions. This column is not meant to go for individual weather events, but this kind of event could be the winter storm of a life time for alot of northwest Europe I would rather be perfect on any idea, but if I have to be wrong, I would rather be overdone on this because I am nervous about the complacency over the years as far as the threat of the kind of winter weather that was common years many many years ago, and may become more common in the near future.

The storm will start in France first as arctic air spreads back southwest tom night and Monday and the upper feature moves east first through Spain. Its a wild set up

In the meantime keep warm! Southeast Europe, from the Balkans southeast are overall mild in this pattern as I emphasized in the issuances this is a big 3 industrial area of the world, far east, the plains east on the US and northern and eastern Europe that is in the tank.

It could be interesting for the dairy farmers out there. I mean what do you do when its so cold your cows are giving ice cream instead of milk (lol)?

I hope the energy people in Europe understand what they are dealing with this winter.

Lets get this party started

So the great coldest opening 10 days since the 80s in the big 3 northern hemisphere energy areas challenge has begun. Our reps are Berlin, London, NYC Chicago, and for eastern Asia, Seoul ( Garrett convinced me to use Seoul because one of his friends comes from there) and Bejing.

Berlin started at -3 London -7. NYC at plus 4 Chicago -12 Seoul -8 Bejing was -1 This gives us day one of the forecast period for the 6 test cities at -4.5

Ive seen a bit of joe b on accuweather seems to know his stuff ,is he a cold ramper,over hype type forecaster,have many of his claims come true ? what people think of this forecast he has made?

[ukmoose]

Cloudy here now and the warmest it's been all day with a little drizzle. Not a great cold spell so far ...