East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[beng]

Just had a look at the GFS 12z run, and for the main (Wed-Friday) the wind direction is just east of North for the main (remember the surface winds do not directly follow the isobars) - which on the face of it will mean snow restricted to Eastern fringes - however I'm sure with the depth of cold there will be a lot of small disturbances etc so snowfall is going to occur away from the coasts as well. I'm not personally convinced of major snowfall in the SE outside of Kent/Essex (and those affected by the wash streamer) though at this stage - unless we see some active trough features develop over the region (quite possible but not guraranteed).

Edited January 2, 2010 by beng

[Updraft]

looks like snow is heading for east Kent to give a shower... I hope it does but from what others are saying it's mostly rain!

[Essexgooner]

It was rain here in Rochford when it just come through......looking more towards next week personally

[SMU]

Just had a look at the GFS 12z run, and for the main (Wed-Friday) the wind direction is just east of North for the main (remember the surface winds do not directly follow the isobars) - which on the face of it will mean snow restricted to Eastern fringes - however I'm sure with the depth of cold there will be a lot of small disturbances etc so snowfall is going to occur away from the coasts as well. I'm not personally convinced of major snowfall in the SE outside of Kent/Essex (and those affected by the wash streamer) though at this stage - unless we see some active trough features develop over the region (quite possible but not guraranteed).

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-138.png?12

You may need to whip out & buy a compass-

S

[fatyido]

It was rain here in Rochford when it just come through......looking more towards next week personally

Just rain here in St Neots in Cambridgeshire, mixed with alittle sleet hitting the windscreen....ah well..

[thegreat316]

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-138.png?12

You may need to whip out & buy a compass-

S

Looking at the latest ecmwf it is much more of a northly n/e tly each time the gfs or ecm run their models they push back when the easterlies arrive if they do. looking like snow risk will more further north and not in our region :-(

[wee]

Hi ,does anyone know if Brighton is going to get any decent amounts of snow over the next week? We had a good covering the week before Xmas and would love to have a good dumping again lol.

[simon65]

Current data for Linslade

02 January 2010 19:25:12

Temperature (°C):

Current 1.8

Trend (per hour) -0.1

Average today 1.1

Wind chill 1.8

Heat Index 1.8

Dew Point -0.6

Rel Humidity 84%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 3.8 NW

Average Speed 0.0 E

Pressure (mb):

Current 1017.1

Trend (per hour) +0.4

no idea whats happening outside because i cant be botherd to go look lol

[beng]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-138.png?12

You may need to whip out & buy a compass-

S

LOL:) Seriously though the surface flow is almost northerly - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html looking at the 10m winds - won't this restrict the showers to the coasts? - or is the the wind at 925hPa whihch has a better Easterly component more representative for this scenario in terms of determining where the showers set up?

Edited January 2, 2010 by beng

[kold weather]

Yep winds look like being more from the NE then the ENE for most of our region bar maybe close to the coast where they could veer more ENE...

Anyway lots of interesting developments on the models tonight, there seems to be increasing chances for a big snow event developing around this time next week, lots of uncertainties of course but well worth watching out for it seems!

Temps dropping away in Kent right now, though temps holding up somewhat ahead of the first trough as it comes through.

ps, Beng, take a look at the chart for about 12hrs later, show a uniformal NE flow across our region:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1475.gif

Edited January 2, 2010 by kold weather

[Ben_Cambs]

Looking at the latest ecmwf it is much more of a northly n/e tly each time the gfs or ecm run their models they push back when the easterlies arrive if they do. looking like snow risk will more further north and not in our region :-(

You will see snow, it will just be later than EA, and that wont be by much time

[Blake7]

And BINGO its started snowing in Ramsgate ... but the temp has risen to +2.3c ;o(

[If Wishes made Weather]

Looking at the latest ecmwf it is much more of a northly n/e tly each time the gfs or ecm run their models they push back when the easterlies arrive if they do. looking like snow risk will more further north and not in our region :-(

Agreed - it is a bit sort of jam tomorrow. Yesterday it was 48hrs+ of constant snowfall for the SE. This evening, a cold front that stalls in the Midlands and packs up on Tue/Wed, and thereafter some showers, more nearer the coasts. My uneducated guess is that we get sort of little bits and peices of snow now and again that might add up to 10 cm in favoured spots; eventually.

[Snowy Bob]

looks like snow is heading for east Kent to give a shower... I hope it does but from what others are saying it's mostly rain!

well it's still only +0.7c here in Folkestone - so I think if anything does fall it's gonna be either sleet or snow.

[Jayces]

I am sure I have read that the best advice on percipitation chances are to follow the radar on the day and the earliest chance for as good as guaratneed snow is a few hours out, is that correct?

I mean some are talking about aramageddon snow senarios next week but is this all subkect to change?

Is there a guaranteed time when we can say yes we will get x inches of snow and how long before or is it really a case of watching the radar when it is due?

[Ben_Cambs]

Agreed - it is a bit sort of jam tomorrow. Yesterday it was 48hrs+ of constant snowfall for the SE. This evening, a cold front that stalls in the Midlands and packs up on Tue/Wed, and thereafter some showers, more nearer the coasts. My uneducated guess is that we get sort of little bits and peices of snow now and again that might add up to 10 cm in favoured spots; eventually.

Snow is very difficult to forecast within 24 hours in some cases, let alone 3/4 days! This region is one of the favoured spots for snow and Im sure we will see a good amount of it.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Blake7]

And BINGO its started snowing in Ramsgate ... but the temp has risen to +2.3c ;o(

And then it turned to rain ...

How did that temp rise so quickly spoiling the snow???

[wee]

Clear skys in Brighton

[Lowestoft]

The sky has been dropping some of that white stuff you lot get so excited about here in "Sunny Lowestoft" for the past couple of hours. http://www.bbc.co.uk/suffolk/content/webcams/lowestoft_royal_plain_webcam.shtml

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I am sure I have read that the best advice on percipitation chances are to follow the radar on the day and the earliest chance for as good as guaratneed snow is a few hours out, is that correct?

I mean some are talking about aramageddon snow senarios next week but is this all subkect to change?

Is there a guaranteed time when we can say yes we will get x inches of snow and how long before or is it really a case of watching the radar when it is due?

In my estimation the armageddon Snow event will begin at precisely 12.03 and 36 seconds on Wednesday afternoon here :lol:, seriously I believe in what the more experienced members are saying on here the heavy snow will hit the SE on Wednesday probably showers from Monday onwards. The depth of the snow will be more localised but a blanket of snow from 5cm upwards to 20cm will be more likely.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Blizzard_of_Oz

[If Wishes made Weather]

I am sure I have read that the best advice on percipitation chances are to follow the radar on the day and the earliest chance for as good as guaratneed snow is a few hours out, is that correct?

I mean some are talking about aramageddon snow senarios next week but is this all subkect to change?

Is there a guaranteed time when we can say yes we will get x inches of snow and how long before or is it really a case of watching the radar when it is due?

Ignore the Armageddon thing. Those who speak certainly of x amount of snow in a particular area are guessing. JH had a post up earlier today that showed how much more difficult it is to forecast snow than rain. As you say, just watch the radar. All that can be said at the moment is this: Next week atmospheric conditions are being predicted that, if they occur, will lead to snow. The unknown factors are (1) will they occur, (2) will it snow, (3) how much, and (4) where.

FYI the GFS progs an accumulated 5-10 cm for the broad SE region by the end of its current run. Assuming then that this is Armageddon, what then is 15cm? Possibly this is something to do with this region adn peoples attitudes and perception. THere is currently 50+ cm currently lyiing in relatively lowland parts of Scotland and there does not appear to be anyone using this sort of language, albeit some are expressing sensible things about how much weight of snow roofs can take, and whether/if power supply problems will occur.

[maidstone weather]

In my estimation the armageddon Snow event will begin at precisely 12.03 and 36 seconds on Wednesday afternoon here :lol:, seriously I belive in what the more experienced members are saying on here the heavy snow will hit the SE at sometime on Wednesday probably showers from Monday onwards. The depth of the snow will be more localised but a blanket of snow from 5cm upwards to 20cm will be more likely.

I'd save a copy of the link to your post if I were you because I would be amazed if that actually happened!

Just clear skies here, and a widespread frost at +0.7C

[davehowe]

Just had wet snow shower in Margate.

[beng]

ps, Beng, take a look at the chart for about 12hrs later, show a uniformal NE flow across our region:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1475.gif

That flow looks great for Kent, East Anglia and the Wash - but it's still only just east of North IMO; I'd expect a few flurries here and maybe even a few cms, but for the real deal we'd still need an organised trough for my area (East Surrey) given that wind direction. There's a good chance though that that will happen, but not enough to give me high confidence yet - hope that makes some sense.

Looks like a great set up don't get me wrong, I'm just trying to keep my feet on the ground until I see some decent troughs on the faxes - or an ENE wind forecast (actually lunch time tomorrow might just deliver for a few hours on that basis).

:lol:

Edited January 2, 2010 by beng

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I'd save a copy of the link to your post if I were you because I would be amazed if that actually happened!

Just clear skies here, and a widespread frost at +0.7C

Yes I will do that and if it happens you can be my reference when I apply to the B.B.C. Weather Dept.