East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[Ben_Cambs]

too early to tell but this web site are certainly warning people http://null.co.uk/?p=235

I think that might be a bit OTT IMO. But yes this spell is going to be amazing in its longiness, But I dont think it will be as bad as -20C in N England!

[donna-m]

Don't know if anyone mentioned but metoffice have updated the warnings for tonight and tom

[Andy H]

Just started to.........................................................RAIN

Edited January 2, 2010 by Andy H

[danm]

Don't know if anyone mentioned but metoffice have updated the warnings for tonight and tom

And theyre basically saying the snow on tues/weds wont affect London and the far SE? I would have thought we'd be affected.

[Iceni]

I think elevation has a lot to do with it… just driven back from my parents where it was just beginning to sleet again, drove down into a dip and it was more like rain in the car headlights and I was getting worried, but by the time I'd got to my house (@ 110 meters asl) it was snow again — that's within an area of just 2 miles.

[kold weather]

I think that might be a bit OTT IMO. But yes this spell is going to be amazing in its longiness, But I dont think it will be as bad as -20C in N England!

If we can get the high closer to the UK, with snowcover and -10/11/12C uppers thats a reachable target, though probably a little on the extreme side...even in the south I'd imagine a set-up like what the GFS suggests would be quite able to give -8/9/10s if we get clear skies, though looking at the set-up I'm not sure there will be a huge amount of that about given the amount of snow showers progged later in the week...

Second trough further north is the one that is re-itroducing the colder air aloft, the first trough has introduced a slight mild region, somewhat akin to a mild sector, the 2nd trough should kick that slightly milder air aloft out of the way and with it temps should fall away rather rapidly, here in the SE+EA it doen't seem to be that potent but we shall see. The first trough being stronger then expected has somewhat reduced the intial strength of the second trough.

[saint]

And theyre basically saying the snow on tues/weds wont affect London and the far SE? I would have thought we'd be affected.

They will do I'm sure, that update was just for icy roads tonight, expect warnings out by tomorrow.

[kold weather]

And theyre basically saying the snow on tues/weds wont affect London and the far SE? I would have thought we'd be affected.

if ether the 12z GFS or the 12z UKMO came off then by Wedesday I'd expect the SE would be under a warning, the set-up for Tuesday looks a little too far north for us, but as the shortwave comes through the flow flattens out and then we will get our reward.

[Discombobulation Man]

TBH I'm a little disappointed by all the runs we've seen since yesterdays 12z ECM. . .

I'm really speaking from London's point of view because I would of thought that with the direct Easterly showing yesterday, that would of been the best case scenario for London to get hammered. As it is now London wont get the best of the stuff on offer because of the predominant NE direction and longer land tracks. . .

. . . and presumably we can forget about Thames Streamers coming from this NE'ly being projected?

Is there any reasonable probability that something close to yesterdays 12z ECM will materialize and we get the direct Easterly for a good a few days???

Just outside the very warm zone of Central London here and we had a small dusting of snow lying early this morning. . . hoping we get a prolonged Easterly out of this so for once in my life time I can actually see snow pile up in masses here in London.

Whatever happens it really looks excellent for EA and Kent and IMO if we get the unlikely switch to a prolonged full blown Easterly then literally the whole of the SE will be pasted to kingdom cum

[Matty J]

Just turned the outside light on and we have Heavy RAIN ! Temp 2.7c DP -0c.

Hows the next band looking which was forcast to give a few cm's later this evening? Is that still the case and if so what time are we looking or it to arrive?

Matt.

[huntso]

Same old winter then, just been up the shed and its slashing down with rain

[Ben_Cambs]

Same old winter then, just been up the shed and its slashing down with rain

To be fair the quicker we get rid of this rain/sleet/snow the better. The slightly milder air is associated with a trough, that has been moving south. The proper cold air will come in tomorrow. Then we look ahead to next week and a good possibility of a full blown snowy Easterly later on in the week, but first a North Easterly which is likely to bring snow with it too

[Nick.F]

temps and dew points rising a fraction here again, both now around the 2c mark.

[Guest FireStorm]

Please do not read this as a upset rant but I'm rather surprised at the downbeat nature of an event that hasn't even happened yet.

These model outputs are truly amazing, these set ups currently shown in a modern day winter are in a sense historical because this kind of thing has not been seen in years. And years is not an understatement.

I can totally understand that given the excitement in the posts - and looking out the window it shows rain is dis-heartening but it is only Saturday and overnight tonight is when there is a better chance for snow, and next week the focus will be on more snow.

The potential is there, the consistency in the charts is there which as a model watcher is rare in itself.

Patience is a virtue and as the Heinz Ketchup advert used to say - best things come to those who wait! Enjoy the cold which is needed to help the groundwork for snow - even if it does not bring scenes like the film "day after tomorrow" which I fear is what some are craving

Edit: +132h http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/01/02/basis12/ukuk/weas/10010806_0212.gif - This may help (I know some areas dont fully show snow but I did not want to post into FI)

Edited January 2, 2010 by FireStorm

[kold weather]

Temps holding here at the moment ahead of the trough as it comes down.

Huntso, we are in what is likely to be the coldest spell of weather since probably Feb 91, today is a slightly less cold set-up as the uppers aren't quite as cold thanks to the low pressure system drifting down the north sea.

Make no mistake, this is likely to be the least cold days in the next 2 weeks...and even then today should come in rather below normal looking at the CET data.

[Southender]

hmmm. Looking at the reports of those to the north and west of me, im not expecting snow this eve. Sounds marginal and a nuisance value. The sooner it passes through the better. Clouding over here so only a matter of time before it rains.

[Tom D]

Well it turned out to be rain here but that's not really a worry for me, it was never going to amount to much anyway. 2.3c currently and my eyes are now fixed on the progression of the trough over northern and eastern England now.

[Blake7]

The temperature in Ramsgate has dropped 2 degrees in 90 minuites ... the temp now +0.8c ;o)

[Snowy Bob]

The temperature in Ramsgate has dropped 2 degrees in 90 minuites ... the temp now +0.8c ;o)

Down to +0.7c down here in Folkestone, got down to -2.5c last night - think it might get down to similar levels tonight.

[Wonderland]

It's snowing here Settling a bit. Wish it was big massive flakes but it isn't.

[saint]

Nice and dry here!

[hire17]

It's snowing here Settling a bit. Wish it was big massive flakes but it isn't.

Increasing size now but clouds look patchy

[jennyjane]

SOUTHERNMAN says its snowing and settling out at Reedham, still clear over here.

[Blake7]

Down to +0.7c down here in Folkestone, got down to -2.5c last night - think it might get down to similar levels tonight.

Yeah, my machine measured -2.7c last night ... looking at the radar there is a blip of somthing heading this way ... well I think anyway

[jennyjane]

lol!

i spoke too soon, a very fine snow falling now, can only just see it in the lamplight.