North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Nice one! Time to get the ice skates out?

I might send the dog out on it first and see if he falls in.

If he doesn't I'll push him with a stick.

what did ya temp drop to OON?

-14.8º this morning. Some thin cloud came over during the night to lift the temperature to around -9º, but it dropped back down around 7am again. In fact, it started to get colder just as my wife was getting up. Coincidence?

[peterf]

RADIO NEWCASTLE JUST ISSUED A SEVERE WARNING FOR NORTHUMBERLAND.CANT SEE IT MESELF LOL.

Certainly looking that way. It looks as if the entire linear formation is gonna pass straight over there. So glad I stayed at home today!

when did you move to Sunderland lol.

need me glasses on i thought it said here lol

Edited January 8, 2010 by peterf

[izi]

RADIO NEWCASTLE JUST ISSUED A SEVERE WARNING FOR NORTHUMBERLAND.CANT SEE IT MESELF LOL.

when did you move to Sunderland lol.

me neither unless the flow is turning more easterly at some point? That band is now a few hundred miles long, and I am sure it will change direction at some point (it normally always does) - otherwise someone would be in for several hours of constant snow with at least 12 inches being dumped on them.

Not likly... but it could happen. could this be snowstorms day?

[Cloud 10]

Perhaps, but to me the heaviest stuff is heading for Durham? I reckon anyone in those showers could get 2-4 inches and I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of 6 locally.

Yeah,i think most of us will get something out of this today,.

Looks great the way it extends way up to the northeast.

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

On the latest satellite the smaller showers in the eastern north sea are heading straight west pushing our "big stuff" more westwards with time.

Edited January 8, 2010 by Cloud 10

[Alex95]

me neither unless the flow is turning more easterly at some point? That band is now a few hundred miles long, and I am sure it will change direction at some point (it normally always does) - otherwise someone would be in for several hours of constant snow with at least 12 inches being dumped on them.

Not likly... but it could happen. could this be snowstorms day?

Tbh half way along that formation some of the snow is looking like coming inland further north, that's what I've been watching for later on in case it gives Newcastle a bit more snow

[peterf]

just a shame it isn't steaming in a tad further north.not to worry later tonight looks good.

[Alex95]

Agh those showers are starting to clip Sunderland on the 11:30 radar leaving North Tyneside dry!!!

[peterf]

9 pm tonight shows plenty of precip for us.

its gone very dark to the north of Scarborough

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/york/hi/people_and_places/newsid_8390000/8390694.stm

Edited January 8, 2010 by peterf

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks similar to last night- a wall of snow showers heading slowly but surely towards the Tyne & Wear/Durham coast from the east, moving NE to SW. There culd be some significant accumulations near the coast in particular.

Regarding next week, it will warm up near the east coast from Sunday onwards, regardless of any breakdown, although a breakdown would result in it becoming much warmer, as opposed to 2-4C with a slow icy thaw. For inland parts, though, it is likely to remain cold and snowy before the breakdown, if there is one.

Personally I think there's 20% chance of a full-on breakdown, 40% chance of it temporarily warming up from the SW before turning colder again from the east, and 40% of the milder air never making it in. Although the ECM and UKMO support a breakdown, meaning it should be taken a lot more seriously than when it was just GFS showing it, I can't say that it looks very convincing, particularly when there isn't much ensemble support.

[peterf]

lovely sunny day here,even warmed up to -3c lol.

[davyf]

Just rang the boss at work as one of the lads there told me he thought I was trying it on by not getting in today. He backed down but I can't wait to see it when he gets hammered in about an hour. Karma baby!

[peterf]

here Davy you love ya gadgets,treat yaself lol.

http://www.ukweathershop.co.uk/

[snowmackem]

FLASH WARNING RELEASED

North East England: Darlington

Durham

Hartlepool

Middlesbrough

Northumberland

Redcar + Cleveland

Stockton-on-Tees

Tyne + Wear

Heavy Snow 1118 Fri 8 2200 Fri 8

Snow showers will feed in from the North Sea and become heavy at times with further accumulations of 2 to 5 cm and possibly up to 10-15 cm in places.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 1120 Fri 8 Jan

[Geordiesnow]

All means very little if nothing falls out of the sky Snowmackem, the warning only highlights a risk of snow.

I can see shower clouds to my east, making the sun rather hazy at times. Hopefully we can get a little bit more snow this afternoon.

[Cloud 10]

Taken a few minutes ago,i can almost touch it.

[snowmackem]

All means very little if nothing falls out of the sky Snowmackem, the warning only highlights a risk of snow.

I can see shower clouds to my east, making the sun rather hazy at times. Hopefully we can get a little bit more snow this afternoon.

I know GS but come on, we're all greedy and want more and more don't we? Let's have a ramp and justify it, for a laff !

If you use the logic that says they are only warning of the "risk of snow", which is fair comment, then it surely follows that there is also the risk of no snow. That would then put the chance of snow somewhere in the middle, which then logically means that there is an equal risk of there being twice as much as in the original warning.Using a twisted ramping logic, it therefore follows that some areas are as much at risk of getting 30cm as of getting nowt!

Make sense..... no I didn't think so but there you go, some people think like that. Personally, on a more genuine note, I think T and W will get little before about 4pm, then will have a build up of showers for the rest of the evening, which could turn out quite snowy, as the winds veer more Easterly.

Karl

[davyf]

If things continue on this line then the North part of this system (currently to the East of Scotland) looks good to hit the coast further North than this first batch doesn't it?

[peterf]

that band is breaking up and the 2nd half looks more promising for up here.

If things continue on this line then the North part of this system (currently to the East of Scotland) looks good to hit the coast further North than this first batch doesn't it?

keep an eye on the last half of the first batch

[Alex95]

Tbh half way along that formation some of the snow is looking like coming inland further north, that's what I've been watching for later on in case it gives Newcastle a bit more snow :lol:

that band is breaking up and the 2nd half looks more promising for up here.

keep an eye on the last half of the first batch

Its that second batch I was referring to in my earlier post, but the band hadn't broken then.

[Geordiesnow]

I know GS but come on, we're all greedy and want more and more don't we? Let's have a ramp and justify it, for a laff !

If you use the logic that says they are only warning of the "risk of snow", which is fair comment, then it surely follows that there is also the risk of no snow. That would then put the chance of snow somewhere in the middle, which then logically means that there is an equal risk of there being twice as much as in the original warning.Using a twisted ramping logic, it therefore follows that some areas are as much at risk of getting 30cm as of getting nowt!

Make sense..... no I didn't think so but there you go, some people think like that. Personally, on a more genuine note, I think T and W will get little before about 4pm, then will have a build up of showers for the rest of the evening, which could turn out quite snowy, as the winds veer more Easterly.

Karl

True but at the same time, we don't want to mislead those folk who may think, a warning means its going to snow for certain.

You have any idea when the winds will veer more of a true easterly direction?

At this stage, for those in Tyne and Wear, western parts of Durham and Northumberland, its a "close but no cigar" situation at the moment. Hopefully this will change soon.

[peterf]

I know GS but come on, we're all greedy and want more and more don't we? Let's have a ramp and justify it, for a laff !

If you use the logic that says they are only warning of the "risk of snow", which is fair comment, then it surely follows that there is also the risk of no snow. That would then put the chance of snow somewhere in the middle, which then logically means that there is an equal risk of there being twice as much as in the original warning.Using a twisted ramping logic, it therefore follows that some areas are as much at risk of getting 30cm as of getting nowt!

Make sense..... no I didn't think so but there you go, some people think like that. Personally, on a more genuine note, I think T and W will get little before about 4pm, then will have a build up of showers for the rest of the evening, which could turn out quite snowy, as the winds veer more Easterly.

Karl

i like the logic

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

You have any idea when the winds will veer more of a true easterly direction?

Looking at the high res NMM model it looks like late on tonight before we get true easterly winds kicking in. This model also keeps the showers away from us until about 10pm tonight.

I think we'll get something before then though.

Looking good for the south of our region.

[peterf]

Looking at the high res NMM model it looks like late on tonight before we get true easterly winds kicking in. This model also keeps the showers away from us until about 10pm tonight.

I think we'll get something before then though.

Looking good for the south of our region.

hi Mark,i agree 9pm onwards looks better for us.

[davyf]

Is that a glitch on the 1225 radar? A lot of the snow I was looking at 5 mins earlier has 'disappeared'.

edit: Thank God for that, its reappeared on the 1235 lol.

Edited January 8, 2010 by davyf

[tynevalleywinter]

Anyone got any snow yet? 12.00 Met invent radar shows a spell of heavy showers just arriving at the coast between Blyth and South Shields