London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowdays]

Hello to all ,

How much you thing NW london (Harrow) is going to get over the week

Thanks!

Impossible to say at the moment, but I wouldn't bother looking past tonight/tomorrow if I were you, during which time we're supposedly meant to see a couple of cms, perhaps a tad more.

[Jezebel48]

;

and i thought i was the only fruitcake with it on

Just put my outside light on for the 256th time this evening to see Mr Fox has been trying to gte the bird nuts and mucked up my pristine snow....

[Chris_19]

^{I am in gravesend and have 5cm all together. As the bands of snow approach they seem to get to this area and break up producing us with nothing. this is so disappointing.}

[Neilsouth]

We need a reload from the East to bring the threat of snow back........

S

Best post all week , spot on

[Snowdays]

Well Im giving it to 22:30 tonight on radar watch then calling it a day- although I already know its game set & match-

The problem here isnt what the weathers done its the expectation brought about by TV forecasters ( met ones) who are not given enough time to properly convey a message to the audience- & so like a heard of lemmings the general public refer to the MET office site- for warning which quite frankly is an un-usable shambles-

This Easterly- or shall I say North easterly has been for the Majority pretty dry as the curvature of the isolines is such that the flow suits the extreme east of Essex, a small strip of Central Kent & parts of East + west Sussex-

We could have made this very easy at the start, & said pretty much faversham up to Gravesend & areas all points SW- along the compass - Plus the SE corner of essex- Felixstowe to Ipswich-

Tonight will be a case of the meek watch in envy as the rich get richer-

Ive mentioned sittingbourne about 5/6 times now each day & had Ashford originally as my Jackout zone- both have varified with snow now exceeding 30cms in some locations- & when all said & done somewhere will have 40/45cm-

Sadly the sliding scale of snow locally to these areas isnt uniform, its at very sharp gradient- so drive out of sittingbourne 10 miles wither way- ( more especially west) & you go from 12 inches to 2/3-

Its a pity because in terms of cold its been the best for years & would have delivered for so many more people had the wind been a bit more westerly vectored-

As for the longivity now- I think we have a chance of snow moving in from the SW in 3 days time, the likley hood is though it will be away towards Hampshire/ dorset & we will be dry-

That leaves us *Potentially* with another 8-10 days of very cold surface air & snow Cover- but not much in the way of snow- very 1986 esque-

good for those in Kent as it will be a sledging fest-

Exciting- not really- abnormal yes-

We need a reload from the East to bring the threat of snow back........

S

The words 'final nail in the coffin' spring to mine. I can't help but think back to Thursday's BBC London forecast: Snow showers Thursday, snow showers Friday, snow showers Saturday, heavy snow Sunday. We've had two flurries.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes

Pretty much agree with Steve here, we have had some amazing 1980's style Synoptics but the Wind direction has screwed over 85% of the South East Population, and when the wind does finally get to the east (If ever) then it shifts pretty sharply to the South East and we get a dry Continental Feed and grey skies!

I was going to (and still am) start a thread next week entitled "How was it for you" seeing as we are having a prolonged Cold Spell and not 2 days of Snow and Temps of +5 Melting our Snow before Lunchtime.

Mine is Nowhere near 1987, 1991, 1986, 1979 and even the Snow on Thur 17th & Fri 18th December was better than this when we topped out at 17cm in one hit, we even had Thundersnow from proper Convective Showers (This due to the fact the wind was actually ENE In the Estuary for 10hrs)

Even 8th January 2004 was better than this with 15cm of Snow on that lovely Thursday Morning Snowstorm!

Not a rant just missed opportunities and time is slipping away

Paul S

[Charltonkerry]

Still gentle snow in Dartford

[Chris_19]

still nothing in gravesend. beyond a joke now!!

[Paul Ashford-Kent]

Well Im giving it to 22:30 tonight on radar watch then calling it a day- although I already know its game set & match-

The problem here isnt what the weathers done its the expectation brought about by TV forecasters ( met ones) who are not given enough time to properly convey a message to the audience- & so like a heard of lemmings the general public refer to the MET office site- for warning which quite frankly is an un-usable shambles-

This Easterly- or shall I say North easterly has been for the Majority pretty dry as the curvature of the isolines is such that the flow suits the extreme east of Essex, a small strip of Central Kent & parts of East + west Sussex-

We could have made this very easy at the start, & said pretty much faversham up to Gravesend & areas all points SW- along the compass - Plus the SE corner of essex- Felixstowe to Ipswich-

Tonight will be a case of the meek watch in envy as the rich get richer-

Ive mentioned sittingbourne about 5/6 times now each day & had Ashford originally as my Jackout zone- both have varified with snow now exceeding 30cms in some locations- & when all said & done somewhere will have 40/45cm-

Sadly the sliding scale of snow locally to these areas isnt uniform, its at very sharp gradient- so drive out of sittingbourne 10 miles wither way- ( more especially west) & you go from 12 inches to 2/3-

Its a pity because in terms of cold its been the best for years & would have delivered for so many more people had the wind been a bit more westerly vectored-

As for the longivity now- I think we have a chance of snow moving in from the SW in 3 days time, the likley hood is though it will be away towards Hampshire/ dorset & we will be dry-

That leaves us *Potentially* with another 8-10 days of very cold surface air & snow Cover- but not much in the way of snow- very 1986 esque-

good for those in Kent as it will be a sledging fest-

Exciting- not really- abnormal yes-

We need a reload from the East to bring the threat of snow back........

S

Thank you for your thoughts, i can feel your frustration with the met and the thread, please keep us informed of your now casting.

With regards to the European radar, what should we be watching right now ?

[VillagePlank]

Probably the exceptionally dry sea.

Funny that isn't it? Now where is all that convection from the North Sea? We've had a week of this, and nearly all the snow has come from mesoscale features, not convective cells .... perhaps the North Sea has dried up

[SussexmarkyMark]

Just watched the latest live BBC News channel forecast from Rob McElwee ( I know it was live as he made reference to the previous item) and he showed persistant light snow for us for the next 24 hours, and still showed the 15cm warning triangle, Then for Monday, the snow moves further north and we get cold grey skies but mostly dry.

[Snowdays]

I love how this thread is divided neatly into two groups:

1- Those in parts of Kent and Essex that are up to their knees in crisp, powdery, glorious magical snow

2- Everyone else

I'm bored of being in the second group now.

[Vesuvius]

We've got that really light show where at first glance you can't see anything but focus on the lights and you can see its really coming down. Very fine snow

[SMU]

Thank you for your thoughts, i can feel your frustration with the met and the thread, please keep us informed of your now casting.

With regards to the European radar, what should we be watching right now ?

the nonethingness that tells us its over.....

S

[barmybint]

Lamp post nowcast for Rochester (Bluebell Hill end)...it is snowing! Very fine flakes but plenty of them, being blown almost horizontally by the wind. Not sure how long for as haven't looked out for over an hour.

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Maybe it's this lot coming!!

German Blitzzard

Get your steel helmets out.

Edited January 9, 2010 by maxiboy

[chionomaniac]

Yes

Pretty much agree with Steve here, we have had some amazing 1980's style Synoptics but the Wind direction has screwed over 85% of the South East Population, and when the wind does finally get to the east (If ever) then it shifts pretty sharply to the South East and we get a dry Continental Feed and grey skies!

I was going to (and still am) start a thread next week entitled "How was it for you" seeing as we are having a prolonged Cold Spell and not 2 days of Snow and Temps of +5 Melting our Snow before Lunchtime.

Mine is Nowhere near 1987, 1991, 1986, 1979 and even the Snow on Thur 17th & Fri 18th December was better than this when we topped out at 17cm in one hit, we even had Thundersnow from proper Convective Showers (This due to the fact the wind was actually ENE In the Estuary for 10hrs)

Even 8th January 2004 was better than this with 15cm of Snow on that lovely Thursday Morning Snowstorm!

Not a rant just missed opportunities and time is slipping away

Paul S

Paul, I agree with yours and Steve's assessments but believe that you may be being premature. You see, I don't think the cold air is truly going to go away. In the same way that Scotland didn't really experience a milder interlude recently I don't think that we are really. I believe it will stay cold (but not as cold as presently) before a reload for the third time this winter. Now that is likely to take 10-15 days to come through but I don't believe that it will be mild in the meantime. One could argue that if the vortex splits again as forecast that the next blast could be even colder. It is a bit far out to be sure about this, but the indications are certainly there.

Ed

[Suttonian]

The words 'final nail in the coffin' spring to mine. I can't help but think back to Thursday's BBC London forecast: Snow showers Thursday, snow showers Friday, snow showers Saturday, heavy snow Sunday. We've had two flurries.

I have to agree and also with Mr Murrs post too. Unless something has gone drastically wrong with the weather. I remember the guy Joe B from Accuweather saying the UK was going to get the mother of all snowstorms last Sunday then having to backtrack a few days later, I sense the same happening with our own forecasters and yet Francis Wilson on Sky was forecasting this snow it like the BBC were earlier... unless of course they know something that isnt apparent to others. If so we will wake tomorrow to the forecasted centimetres nationwide however at the moment it seems the party is over for now... who's got the hoover! Im off down the pub!

[Vesuvius]

I have to agree and also with Mr Murrs post too. Unless something has gone drastically wrong with the weather. I remember the guy Joe B from Accuweather saying the UK was going to get the mother of all snowstorms last Sunday then having to backtrack a few days later, I sense the same happening with our own forecasters and yet Francis Wilson on Sky was forecasting this snow it like the BBC were earlier... unless of course they know something that isnt apparent to others. If so we will wake tomorrow to the forecasted centimetres nationwide however at the moment it seems the party is over for now... who's got the hoover! Im off down the pub!

Isn't this just the starter - I thought the mains were the early hours of Sunday ?

[Downpour]

the nonethingness that tells us its over.....

S

Thanks for your posts and analysis steve. I agree that the nor'easter basically did for 85 per cent of us while blasting nc kent. Plan is simple for me tomorrow - call some mates in the morning then catch the train to sittingbourne/ashford

[Buckster]

I think we're all giving up WAY too early

[SussexmarkyMark]

I love how this thread is divided neatly into two groups:

1- Those in parts of Kent and Essex that are up to their knees in crisp, powdery, glorious magical snow

2- Everyone else

I'm bored of being in the second group now.

I think you'll find large areas of Sussex, including here in Brighton, also have plebty of snow

[Buckster]

the precip. over North Sea is definately getting more intese

[Downpour]

Paul, I agree with yours and Steve's assessments but believe that you may be being premature. You see, I don't think the cold air is truly going to go away. In the same way that Scotland didn't really experience a milder interlude recently I don't think that we are really. I believe it will stay cold (but not as cold as presently) before a reload for the third time this winter. Now that is likely to take 10-15 days to come through but I don't believe that it will be mild in the meantime. One could argue that if the vortex splits again as forecast that the next blast could be even colder. It is a bit far out to be sure about this, but the indications are certainly there.

Ed

But what's the point of endless cold without a decent Easterly to deliver snow?

[snowmackem]

If we could build a giant conveyor belt you could all have some of our snow, we've got plenty up here and it's now been on the ground since 17th Dec!

What makes it sadder for you all is that there is a weather warning out for here for tomorrow night into Monday for up to 30cm more.

Btw, strange sights up here not seen for years. Every building has a curtain of huge(and growing) curtain of icicles round the gutterings, very Alpine.

Anyway, hope you get what's been promised over the next few days, I almost feel guilty.

Karl