Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Muffelchen]

Light rain here at the mo and big thaw overnight Temp here 2.6°C with a DP of -1.3°C. Model thread is a shambles and I now have no idea what's going to happen next.

I think I'll go out and enjoy what maybe the last of this cold spell, if not...great. If it is, well, it's been a blast

[The PIT]

LOL Met office still got sub zero temps for us and highest being 0c during the week. Thats todays update. Oops.

[Harsh Climate]

All is not lost for us in west yorkshire yet though, the precipitation IS suppost to pep up tonight and be really quite persistant. I suspect with very cold ground temps and a temperature of around 0-1C, this will be cold enough for further accumulation.. The difference is we will now be looking at 2-5cm instead od 20-30cm, the way it goes really.

In the past I have seen these events hold big suprises, if your were the precipitation noticably peps up, the snow starts coming down heavy in the midst of persistant snow, good depths are then possible

yesterday I said keep an eye on that large clump of cloud/showers over denmark, as this is whats guna affect us later today and nothing has changed, its still on coarse:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images/ukir_sat_201001101000.jpg Its now in the north sea.

Untill we see what sort of precipitation this lad is carrying I wouldnt right of our chances yet, the places were the chances have diminished is east of the A1.

[Craig in Leeds]

I did a voice over video on Friday evening for the Doncaster area, I do one 2x weekly, and may I ask that you listen to it to see whether my assessment of what was going to happen is not close to what seems to be happening now and into the start of next week.

www.johnholmes-weather.co.uk

go to Forecasts and down towards the bottom click on the video link and watch the charts I talk over.

John,

Just listened to the audio forecast on your site and yes, I would say that is pretty much what is happening now. What I cant get my head around is this-

You don't mention any heavy prolonged snowfall, the gfs charts on your site don't show any heavy prolonged snowfall. The charts I have been looking at over the last 48 hours haven't and still do not show any heavy and prolonged snowfall. The radar since last night and up to now don't show it either. So why did the tv forecasts yesterday evening and into the early part of the night forecast heavy snow with 10-20cm of fresh snowfall in places? This was then forecast to move northwards.

Am I missing something or were the met/bbc forecasters just being a bit ott?

[clee_snow]

big thaw here lost 90% of the snow here

[Lewis]

All is not lost for us in west yorkshire yet though, the precipitation IS suppost to pep up tonight and be really quite persistant. I suspect with very cold ground temps and a temperature of around 0-1C, this will be cold enough for further accumulation.. The difference is we will now be looking at 2-5cm instead od 20-30cm, the way it goes really.

In the past I have seen these events hold big suprises, if your were the precipitation noticably peps up, the snow starts coming down heavy in the midst of persistant snow, good depths are then possible

yesterday I said keep an eye on that large clump of cloud/showers over denmark, as this is whats guna affect us later today and nothing has changed, its still on coarse:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images/ukir_sat_201001101000.jpg Its now in the north sea.

Untill we see what sort of precipitation this lad is carrying I wouldnt right of our chances yet, the places were the chances have diminished is east of the A1.

I like your enthusiasm, although i have just checked all the forecasts on metoffice and BBC, and for every region on the metoffice, it states, further mostly light rain,sleet and snow possible.

To be honest the meto and bbc have made a little cockup imho.

Let's see what later brings, if the precipitation actually makes it.

Lewis

[The PIT]

You don't mention any heavy prolonged snowfall, the gfs charts on your site don't show any heavy prolonged snowfall. The charts I have been looking at over the last 48 hours haven't and still do not show any heavy and prolonged snowfall. The radar since last night and up to now don't show it either. So why did the tv forecasts yesterday evening and into the early part of the night forecast heavy snow with 10-20cm of fresh snowfall in places? This was then forecast to move northwards.

Am I missing something or were the met/bbc forecasters just being a bit ott?

Yeh I was wondering that. Being playing radar loops and yesterday evening no sign of anything coming across the water. I presume the Met office expected it too develop over us. Perhaps it just ended up over the South West instead.

[Coast]

Lets keep it civil folks - cold and snow discussion in here please, not personalities and character.

[AndyLincs]

Sleet and rain for the most part this morning in the lowlands of South Lincolnshire! I think forcasting is always going to be tentative but I would not give up hope further inland.

[winterof79]

I like your enthusiasm, although i have just checked all the forecasts on metoffice and BBC, and for every region on the metoffice, it states, further mostly light rain,sleet and snow possible.

To be honest the meto and bbc have made a little cockup imho.

Let's see what later brings, if the precipitation actually makes it.

Lewis

Are the updated NAE charts wrong also?Looking at tha raintotay radar,i would say that a lot more red shadings will appear as the moisture encouters the pennines.I can not see the precipitation fading at present.

Edited January 10, 2010 by winterof79

[Harsh Climate]

I like your enthusiasm, although i have just checked all the forecasts on metoffice and BBC, and for every region on the metoffice, it states, further mostly light rain,sleet and snow possible.

To be honest the meto and bbc have made a little cockup imho.

Let's see what later brings, if the precipitation actually makes it.

Lewis

Thanks Lewis. Yes the met office/bbc are down playing this now but after there last couple of cock ups Im not taking what they say as a fact, just yet.... lol

The precipitation over linconshire is pepping up and expanding now, should stretch further north and west in the next few hours. This will be mostly light, with a few moderate bursts, lets see if any of this manages to settle (obviously in the west), then the potential for heavier snow rests on that clump moving in from the north sea <_<

Temperature now 1.3C and dropping

[Coast]

[Mark Bayley]

I think most can expect a slow thaw over the coming days. Its melting steadily over here. But not at an extreme rate. Would probably take a a good few days to melt! Which is the same for everyone else with good accumulations. Lets not forget it will freeze overnight if temps drop! I can't say I'm to disappointed. five days of around 10cm-15cm on the ground is not to bad. It was never going to stick around for ever. Even if the snow does melt its not going to turn mild. Just less cold for most away from the South West and some Southern Counties. My next hope is for a warm spring with a mixed Feb!

[Les Penniston]

Sleet and rain for the most part this morning in the lowlands of South Lincolnshire! I think forcasting is always going to be tentative but I would not give up hope further inland.

We are the same, rain and sleet with a steady thaw, cannot seeing changing thought even if local radio are forecasting more snow later for our region.

Regards

Les

[Harsh Climate]

1.4C here and absolutly no thaw

[Winter Warmer]

slight thaw but should be ok unless it rains

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Temperature over 3 degrees now and quite a fast thaw now setting in, had a few flakes of wet snow/sleet and drizzle. Don't know what going to happen later on. For those fyrther west don't worry about the thaw, we have had 2-3 degrees all week and we had very little thaw, its only started for us today here.

[winterof79]

No thaw here either.Steady light snow.Plenty of faith in the NAE.Going red on raintoday .....nothing was ever forecast before late pm.Hence warnings from 18.00 by the met.Could still change though

[Mark Bayley]

lol

THE EARLY WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DISRUPTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY.

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of Wales, Northeast and Southeast England. Outbreaks of snow may give accumulations of 1 to 2cm at low levels, but snow may become heavy and persistent at times over higher ground with 3 to 8cm on east-facing slopes and up to 15cm over the highest peaks of the Pennines and Welsh Mountains.

Strong winds may cause drifting of snow in places.

Issued at: 1125 Sun 10 Jan

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html

[Lewis]

lol

THE EARLY WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DISRUPTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY.

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of Wales, Northeast and Southeast England. Outbreaks of snow may give accumulations of 1 to 2cm at low levels, but snow may become heavy and persistent at times over higher ground with 3 to 8cm on east-facing slopes and up to 15cm over the highest peaks of the Pennines and Welsh Mountains.

Strong winds may cause drifting of snow in places.

Issued at: 1125 Sun 10 Jan

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html

EGG on the face times for the metoffice and beeb again lol

[Schnee]

You say eery - I say cool!! I'd love to see that in action! I spotted a drain pipe earlier that was coated from top to bottom, 360º in about a half inch of clear ice. I've not seen so many icicles for a *very* long time

There's a house in the centre of our village that has some kind of foliage growing up the front. The dripping water from the roof has landed on it and most, if not all, of the leaves have icicles on them! it looks stunning!

If I can get out and up there tomorrow, I'll try and get a photo

Here:

That is the result of a dripping tap or shower over the entire cold spell. How it's not frozen up the pipe totally and backed up inside is a miracle.

We still have our snow here with no sign of a thaw yet. Interested in what happens later though.

[Mark Bayley]

Saying that its just started snowing here! Nothing heavy but nice to see none the less

Edited January 10, 2010 by mark bayley

[Terminal Moraine]

I see the Met' Office weather warning for this area tonight and into tomorrow has now been downgraded to 1-2cm at lower levels and perhaps up to 8cm at higher levels, a significant difference to the previous forecast of 5-10cm at lower levels and up to 20cm higher up.

[Harsh Climate]

EGG on the face times for the metoffice and beeb again lol

lol woudnt it be funny if they was wrong again and there was a foot of snow!

We can all but dream... lol

[Lewis]

raining heavily now

Edited January 10, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis