North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Alex95]

So the 8miles from the coast was correct thanks That still give me a fighting chance

I'm 6.6 miles to the nearest point of the coast <_< That's too far though imo, I think our region will either see widespread snow from troughs etc, or barely anything away from the coast. I mentioned before that the Nov 2008 event looked good and even started well with heavy wet snow in the morning on Fri 21st, but once the true cold air dug in the wind became NNW and I only got a dusting. This could (and probably will be) similar.

[Snowstorm1]

I'm 6.6 miles to the nearest point of the coast That's too far though imo, I think our region will either see widespread snow from troughs etc, or barely anything away from the coast. I mentioned before that the Nov 2008 event looked good and even started well with heavy wet snow in the morning on Fri 21st, but once the true cold air dug in the wind became NNW and I only got a dusting. This could (and probably will be) similar.

What do you suggest i could say to the kids at school tommorrow because they are going to ask me about the snow lol

[Alex95]

What do you suggest i could say to the kids at school tommorrow because they are going to ask me about the snow lol

Cold and mostly dry with a little bit of snow possible? Unless of course BBC breakfast tomorrow shows lots of snow for Friday as that is our main chance with a more N flow rather than NNW, but I doubt that it will.

[Snowstorm1]

Cold and mostly dry with a little bit of snow possible? Unless of course BBC breakfast tomorrow shows lots of snow for Friday as that is our main chance with a more N flow rather than NNW, but I doubt that it will.

Seems fair enough i just want a snow covering back imo

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think snow showers will be pretty widespread across the region during Friday afternoon and the early part of the night, I think anywhere within 10 miles of the coast should be affected and the showers may penetrate as much as 20 miles inland at times. However, the cold air will only just be establishing then so there may be limited accumulations from them until after dark.

For Saturday and Sunday it looks like staying mostly dry with plenty of sunshine and the chance of an occasional light flurry mainly near the coast. I think 3-4cm tops sounds about right.

[Snowstorm1]

I think snow showers will be pretty widespread across the region during Friday afternoon and the early part of the night, I think anywhere within 10 miles of the coast should be affected and the showers may penetrate as much as 20 miles inland at times. However, the cold air will only just be establishing then so there may be limited accumulations from them until after dark.

For Saturday and Sunday it looks like staying mostly dry with plenty of sunshine and the chance of an occasional light flurry mainly near the coast. I think 3-4cm tops sounds about right.

I expected no snow but that has filled me full of optimism What do you think of my chances? im still in shock reading this

[Alex95]

I think snow showers will be pretty widespread across the region during Friday afternoon and the early part of the night, I think anywhere within 10 miles of the coast should be affected and the showers may penetrate as much as 20 miles inland at times. However, the cold air will only just be establishing then so there may be limited accumulations from them until after dark.

For Saturday and Sunday it looks like staying mostly dry with plenty of sunshine and the chance of an occasional light flurry mainly near the coast. I think 3-4cm tops sounds about right.

Hmm maybe, but I get the feeling that whilst the wind direction is good tomorrow, by the time the showers get going it'll have moved to a NNW direction leaving us quite dry. I do think I'll see a thin layer though, and I can understand how the coast may get the 3-4cm you mention. Really I think tomorrow its a case of radar watching, if nothing has developed by lunchtime in the North Sea it could be game over, but otherwise we might get lucky again. :lol:

The GFS does show snow getting inland tomorrow afternoon, and possibly clipping the region on Sunday evening, within about 5-10 miles of the coast probably. Tomorrow is our main chance.

Edited January 28, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

Alza or TWS what should i expect tommorrow? eg snow showers on the afternoon and night but snow not laying till evening?

[Alex95]

Alza or TWS what should i expect tommorrow? eg snow showers on the afternoon and night but snow not laying till evening?

TWS has the best knowledge about these things, but I think most places will see some wet snow flurries tomorrow, becoming less marginal but also less heavy / frequent during tomorrow night, which is why I'm sceptical of anything more than 1-3cm. Tomorrow evening is definitely the best time for settling snow, during the day it might be too marginal and during the night there probably won't be as much precipitation.

[Snowstorm1]

TWS has the best knowledge about these things, but I think most places will see some wet snow flurries tomorrow, becoming less marginal but also less heavy / frequent during tomorrow night, which is why I'm sceptical of anything more than 1-3cm. Tomorrow evening is definitely the best time for settling snow, during the day it might be too marginal and during the night there probably won't be as much precipitation.

Thanks for your reply all i want is a decent thick coating back which will be around 2cm compacted and 1cm fluffy stuff on top Not much to ask for

[dave79]

Thanks for your reply all i want is a decent thick coating back which will be around 2cm compacted and 1cm fluffy stuff on top Not much to ask for

Hi Snowstorm1 - I've just been looking at a forecast for tomorow ( the ts6 region ), it has snow showers from 9am friday right through to 9am saturday, then cold sat and sunday, with a chance of snow showers come Sunday night.

[tynevalleywinter]

Looking very marginal for this weekend. M thinks just the coast to get snow/sleet.

TWO and accu weather are agreeing with a very cold and snowy spell from the 2nd week of feb predicted. I never believe forcasts so far in advance but accu weather are usuall reliable?

My mate climbed the Cheviot on Tuesday with crampons and ice axe and took his snow depth gauge that he uses in ski resorts. He measured 11 foot depth and this wasnt drifts!!!!!

[Snowstorm1]

Ill bank to go to bed tommorrow night with 1-3cm on the ground and wake up saturday with 2-4cm on the ground. Then ill bank snow showers again on sunday night and the bbc update heavy snow for tuesday

[Alex95]

Hannah was going for the showers getting 10-12 miles inland at the weekend on Look North, hope she's right about that! And on the pressure sequence an occluded front gets quite close to our coast and I wouldn't be surprised to see that causing the shower activity to pep up.

[Snowstorm1]

Hannah was going for the showers getting 10-12 miles inland at the weekend on Look North, hope she's right about that! And on the pressure sequence an occluded front gets quite close to our coast and I wouldn't be surprised to see that causing the shower activity to pep up.

Yep I wonder this may creep up on us when we have least expected because I expected nothing this weekend when i logged on tonight but after TWS posting that and look north im much more postive

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that sounds about right for Friday and Friday night but as far as I can see the outputs don't really support that happening over the weekend. Still, it's far from inconcievable- it only requires a trough or the slightest change in wind direction.

For most eastern coastal areas I think a dusting will be typical - by "3-4cm tops" I meant 3-4cm at most, rather than 3-4cm typially. The main issue is that the most widespread showers will tend to happen just as the cold air is arriving, rather than once it has established. I must admit, though, that I only mean low ground here, and I can certainly see the North York Moors seeing rather more than 3-4cm.

I don't imagine anywhere will see sleet during the weekend- it's a question of how far inland the showers get rather than whether it's cold enough.

Longer term outlook shows increasing support for the northerly perhaps lasting until the middle of next week, though the breakdown on Monday is still possible. In the former case snow showers may develop more widely for a time early next week.

[Snowstorm1]

I think that sounds about right for Friday and Friday night but as far as I can see the outputs don't really support that happening over the weekend. Still, it's far from inconcievable- it only requires a trough or the slightest change in wind direction.

For most eastern coastal areas I think a dusting will be typical - by "3-4cm tops" I meant 3-4cm at most, rather than 3-4cm typially. The main issue is that the most widespread showers will tend to happen just as the cold air is arriving, rather than once it has established. I must admit, though, that I only mean low ground here, and I can certainly see the North York Moors seeing rather more than 3-4cm.

I don't imagine anywhere will see sleet during the weekend- it's a question of how far inland the showers get rather than whether it's cold enough.

Longer term outlook shows increasing support for the northerly perhaps lasting until the middle of next week, though the breakdown on Monday is still possible. In the former case snow showers may develop more widely for a time early next week.

So what i posted earlier

" Ill bank to go to bed tommorrow night with 1-3cm on the ground and wake up saturday with 2-4cm on the ground. Then ill bank snow showers again on sunday night and the bbc update heavy snow for tuesday "

would be a fairl accurate assement for me atm? :lol:

[Alex95]

So what i posted earlier

" Ill bank to go to bed tommorrow night with 1-3cm on the ground and wake up saturday with 2-4cm on the ground. Then ill bank snow showers again on sunday night and the bbc update heavy snow for tuesday "

would be a fairl accurate assement for me atm? :lol:

Yeah maybe, but what TWS is trying to say is that you're more likely to be at the 1-2cm end of the scale. 3-4cm will only fall locally, and most places will see a dusting. Also, don't bank on anything - remember New Years Day? I thought 2-3 inches would be widespread, on NYD Tyneside and Northumberland had 4-6 inches, whilst Teesside had next to nowt.

[Snowstorm1]

Yeah maybe, but what TWS is trying to say is that you're more likely to be at the 1-2cm end of the scale. 3-4cm will only fall locally, and most places will see a dusting. Also, don't bank on anything - remember New Years Day? I thought 2-3 inches would be widespread, on NYD Tyneside and Northumberland had 4-6 inches, whilst Teesside had next to nowt.

id take 1-2cm aswell :lol: And yes i remember that terrible terrible day and i know im not going to get that again hopefully!

[Airedalejoe]

Just had the first light snow shower, temp +1, here's hoping!

[dave79]

Just had the first light snow shower, temp +1, here's hoping!

we've just had a quick blast of hail, stopped after a couple of minutes though, prob going to be like that all day.

[topsweep1506]

Just had a heavy snow shower thats just give a covering in Cramlington just now (1020)

Temp +1.6c dew -0.7c

[Andy_]

had a few flurries of snow so far today, no accumulations as of yet - most of the heavy showers out at sea unfortunately :/ feels very raw in the strong wind.

[paul tall]

Well, we've had no snow here, 14.97677 miles inland from the nesrest bit of coast.

Who said showers getting 15 miles inland?

[Alex95]

id take 1-2cm aswell And yes i remember that terrible terrible day and i know im not going to get that again hopefully!

That was my favourite day! Not because you didn't get anything, but because the snow had a magical look to it - it even stuck to the washing line to make a long tube of snow!

I think today's radar says it all, those snow showers out in the North Sea are probably going to stay there, which is very frustrating as the snow showers this morning almost settled, but weren't quite heavy enough. If I was in Norwich now I'd be getting pretty excited