North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

mark,are you going for the steak challenge lol.they look a bit awesome.

Not a chance, I was happy with the 6oz steak I had, no way I could manage 72oz! Maybe if I had a week to eat it!

Ian Cameron is the champion of the steak challenge, he did it on one of the other tours last year. I think he's going for it again this year.

[Snowstorm1]

SNOW IS COMING BACK HELL YEAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cloud 10]

SNOW IS COMING BACK HELL YEAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[Alex95]

I think that the probabilities are as follows:

NNE wind (and lots of snow showers): 25%

N wind (and a fair amount of snow showers especially near the coast): 35%

NNW wind (most of the snow stays out at sea with a little bit close to the coast): 40%

It's all to play for at the moment, but I think a fair assumption would that be most of the snow will stay out at sea on a NNW wind, which will be a N wind for a time on Friday bringing the showers inland a little bit. If there are any troughs involved we could get a dumping, especially if the wind is N or NNE. Its also worth pointing out that some precipitation could reach us early on Friday from that feature running down the west, and when the breakdown arrives on Monday there could be a repeat of Thursday 4th December 2008, when approximately 3-8cm fell at low levels and up to 20cm on high ground.

Its also worth pointing out that the ECM 12z would bring a decent amount of snow to anywhere within 10 miles of the coast, the wind seems to be N/NNE on Friday until it veers NNW on Saturday, then Sunday is messy, perhaps NNE again.

Edited January 25, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

Alza that means according to your chances its 60/40 in our favour for snow showers what do you think of this feature im unsure of what to think about it

[Alex95]

Alza that means according to your chances its 60/40 in our favour for snow showers what do you think of this feature im unsure of what to think about it

I really don't know, it looks like we catch a little snow from its eastern edge, but we might not know for definite until Thursday

I fancy the chances of places near the coast (>3 miles from the coast) receiving a couple of inches from the snow showers, but elsewhere its really hard to say, I've known NNW winds to contain troughs bringing the snow showers well inland, but generally we need N or NNE wind to be safe. We could get a Nov 2008 re-run which didn't contain any troughs, and I only got a dusting from that event.

Btw those percentages were rough, I was basically trying to say that a NNE wind is unlikely, a NNW wind is most likely but a direct N is close behind. A mixture of N and NNW winds look quite likely atm. Friday holds our best chances I think.

[Cloud 10]

peterf, on 24 January 2010 - 12:06 , said:

iv'e just listened to the weather forecast on radio newcastle.she reckons it will become noticeably milder tuesday onwards.where has she gleamed that info from?.if anything the reverse looks on the cards.

i'm gunna email them lol.

We are due for a couple of milder days on tuesday and fairly mild afternoon on wednesday before it turns much colder again on thursday on wednesday night so go easy on the e-mail.

I've revised that forecast.

[Snowstorm1]

I really don't know, it looks like we catch a little snow from its eastern edge, but we might not know for definite until Thursday

I fancy the chances of places near the coast (>3 miles from the coast) receiving a couple of inches from the snow showers, but elsewhere its really hard to say, I've known NNW winds to contain troughs bringing the snow showers well inland, but generally we need N or NNE wind to be safe. We could get a Nov 2008 re-run which didn't contain any troughs, and I only got a dusting from that event.

Btw those percentages were rough, I was basically trying to say that a NNE wind is unlikely, a NNW wind is most likely but a direct N is close behind. A mixture of N and NNW winds look quite likely atm. Friday holds our best chances I think.

How far I am from the coast in thornaby i thought it was 8 miles but some kids said it isnt does anyone know? coz this could have a massive effect on my chances

[Alex95]

I've attached 2 ECM charts, 2 GFS charts and 2 METO charts. ECM would result in a snowy day on Friday followed by a dry, cold day on Saturday, the GFS would be frustrating with a little snow coming inland, but loads of snow out at sea whilst the METO would probably end up with some snow on both Friday and Saturday, but mostly Friday. The GFS could result in a snowy day on Friday if troughs get involved mind. Sunday will probably see the northerly topple, but there is then a slight chance of the breakdown being snowy, we're in a good position for that if it is.

That's why I'm being cautious at the moment

How far I am from the coast in thornaby i thought it was 8 miles but some kids said it isnt does anyone know? coz this could have a massive effect on my chances

8 miles might be too far if its a NNW I'm afraid, I'm a simialar distance and I've watched snow showers just out at sea before giving the coastline a few flurries

Edited January 25, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

Can i bank the met office one as I would like snow on both days or is that been greedy But ecm isnt too shabby either is the friday one got me off school Gfs thats just if we get desperate

Im not sure im 8miles away though can anyone check this please?

Edited January 25, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[Alex95]

Can i bank the met office one as I would like snow on both days or is that been greedy But ecm isnt too shabby either is the friday one got me off school Gfs thats just if we get desperate

Im not sure im 8miles away though can anyone check this please?

ECM and METO are very similar actually, its just that the METO would probably allow for some morning snow showers on Saturday. The ECM actually shows some snow potential on Sunday aswell

[Snowstorm1]

ECM and METO are very similar actually, its just that the METO would probably allow for some morning snow showers on Saturday. The ECM actually shows some snow potential on Sunday aswell

Do you know roughly how far i am from the coast?

Also if thats true how come the % you did were like that because only gfs back you up on that 40% lol

[Alex95]

Do you know roughly how far i am from the coast?

Also if thats true how come the % you did were like that because only gfs back you up on that 40% lol

I just think that the most likely scenario is a N followed by NNW, that would mean a little snow (1-3cm) followed by dry weather. The models do seem to be suggesting a NNE turning into a NNW atm, which would allow for a bit more snow. We probably won't know about how much snow will fall until Wed/Thurs so the important thing is to get the northerly as potent as possible first.

[Snowstorm1]

I just think that the most likely scenario is a N followed by NNW, that would mean a little snow (1-3cm) followed by dry weather. The models do seem to be suggesting a NNE turning into a NNW atm, which would allow for a bit more snow. We probably won't know about how much snow will fall until Wed/Thurs so the important thing is to get the northerly as potent as possible first.

Okay mate

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think a NNE would definitely bring snow showers a long way inland, but as long as the wind doesn't get east of due north it is touch and go. Sometimes even Cleadon, just two miles inland from the coast, can end up too far west to catch any of the showers- the winter of 1994/95 was particularly frustrating with most of its northerly outbreaks seeing snow showers drifting just to the east and Cleadon staying in the clear.

The other thing that can happen is showers hugging the coast and inland areas staying clear- this has been a common feature of many recent winters and was most pronounced in 1998/99 when Cleadon had more than twice as much snow as Durham.

Unfortunately I cannot make any promises either way at this stage. It all depends on minute changes in wind direction and it often isn't until 24-36 hours before the event that the models get the wind direction exactly right.

[Alex95]

I think a NNE would definitely bring snow showers a long way inland, but as long as the wind doesn't get east of due north it is touch and go. Sometimes even Cleadon, just two miles inland from the coast, can end up too far west to catch any of the showers- the winter of 1994/95 was particularly frustrating with most of its northerly outbreaks seeing snow showers drifting just to the east and Cleadon staying in the clear.

The other thing that can happen is showers hugging the coast and inland areas staying clear- this has been a common feature of many recent winters and was most pronounced in 1998/99 when Cleadon had more than twice as much snow as Durham.

Unfortunately I cannot make any promises either way at this stage. It all depends on minute changes in wind direction and it often isn't until 24-36 hours before the event that the models get the wind direction exactly right.

Yup, April 7th 2008 was annoying, the coast had a couple of inches whilst in Newcastle there was just a dusting.

[peterf]

peterf, on 24 January 2010 - 12:06 , said:

iv'e just listened to the weather forecast on radio newcastle.she reckons it will become noticeably milder tuesday onwards.where has she gleamed that info from?.if anything the reverse looks on the cards.

i'm gunna email them lol.

We are due for a couple of milder days on tuesday and fairly mild afternoon on wednesday before it turns much colder again on thursday on wednesday night so go easy on the e-mail.

I've revised that forecast.:lol:

was always on the cards man lol

Can i bank the met office one as I would like snow on both days or is that been greedy But ecm isnt too shabby either is the friday one got me off school Gfs thats just if we get desperate

Im not sure im 8miles away though can anyone check this please?

youlv'e been spoiled this year lol.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Excellent 00z GFS run this morning, giving us a 5 day northerly, followed by a lot of ppn moving in from the west turning to snow, then plenty of easterly winds for the rest of the run.

06z will probably downgrade this but still there's great potential for another good spell of snow and cold

[peterf]

dosen't look like my fish ponds are going to thaw before they refreeze.lots of dead fish under the ice

[hannahbayman]

hi Hannah,

Over the last cold spell during those heavy snow showers we had a few weeks ago; I am wondering if you got to see any lightning or 'thundersnow' or if you have seen it for yourself, certainly a strange site. I was amazed when I saw some blue flashes (about 5 within two minutes) during a heavy snow storm over Peterlee, added a bit of excitement.

Unfortunately I didn't get to see any myself, would have loved to, but we had loads of emails and texts from viewers and listeners who had seen/heard thunder activity during snow showers, especially in Co Durham and Northumberland.

Have a look at this gorgeous Cb over a snowfield in Berwick earlier this month, which I have posted on Twitter this morning (putting together snowy photo galleries today for our main website)

http://www.twitpic.com/zuc2j

[Methuselah]

What a lovely pic, Hannah!! :D

Welcome to netweather btw!

[hannahbayman]

Another nice pic here, from NASA's fantastic Earth Gallery (well worth bookmarking as they have some great satellite pics)

The North East of the UK a respectable mid-blue shade!

Http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42260

Given the strong negative Arctic Oscillation it would be surprising if there weren't more significant snowfall at least somewhere in the North East and Cumbria this winter. We are unlikely to get another frozen month, of course.

The southwesterlies have never managed to dominate at our latitude for more than a day or two since early December - correct me if I am wrong as I've had some days off! Broadly speaking high pressure to the north and a NW-N-NE flow has always taken over.

I spoke to a meteorologist contact at a television station in Alabama yesterday night and they have just confirmed the first 15 days of the year was the coldest consecutive since records began in the 1840s.

They're forecasting snow or freezing rain this weekend - in the Deep South! They are also talking about the possibility of another ice storm in Kentucky.

The picture from NASA really shows the AO negative situation - the US and northern Asia really getting the brunt of it.

Now do you dare me to talk about this on Look North

[Thundery wintry showers]

The southwesterlies have never managed to dominate at our latitude for more than a day or two since early December - correct me if I am wrong as I've had some days off! Broadly speaking high pressure to the north and a NW-N-NE flow has always taken over.

I think the general pattern from mid December to the 9th January certainly had high pressure to the north and a NW-N-NE flow, but since the 10th January we've had mainly a Siberian High to the NE and predominantly southerly and south-easterly winds over the UK bringing fairly cold cloudy conditions. But you're certainly right about the near-absence of south-westerlies!

I saw a couple of flashes of lightning in a snowstorm in Cleadon on New Year's Eve (did you get any reports from the South Shields sort of area around then? I think a few others on this forum noticed it as well). I like the Cb cloud- I saw very similar ones early on the 5th January around Newcastle as I was heading south on the train.

At the moment the analysis on the model output threads suggest frequent high pressure to the W and NW for February which could bring cold northerly outbreaks interspersed with milder anticyclonic north-westerly types, but the Siberian High is also a major player and could link up with this high at times allowing north-easterlies and easterlies in.

[Alex95]

I think the general pattern from mid December to the 9th January certainly had high pressure to the north and a NW-N-NE flow, but since the 10th January we've had mainly a Siberian High to the NE and predominantly southerly and south-easterly winds over the UK bringing fairly cold cloudy conditions. But you're certainly right about the near-absence of south-westerlies!

I saw a couple of flashes of lightning in a snowstorm in Cleadon on New Year's Eve (did you get any reports from the South Shields sort of area around then? I think a few others on this forum noticed it as well). I like the Cb cloud- I saw very similar ones early on the 5th January around Newcastle as I was heading south on the train.

At the moment the analysis on the model output threads suggest frequent high pressure to the W and NW for February which could bring cold northerly outbreaks interspersed with milder anticyclonic north-westerly types, but the Siberian High is also a major player and could link up with this high at times allowing north-easterlies and easterlies in.

The most exciting cloudscape imo was the New Years Eve/Day event, I saw cbs like that one on New Years Eve, including a couple of flashes of lightning after dark, then on New Years Day there was the darkest snow cloud I've seen in a long time around 09:00 before the snowstorm rolled in from the east. What a great day that was!

Imo this northerly looks better than the Nov 2008 one as it looks like being N rather than NNW, but not as good as the February 2004 northerly for example which was mostly NNE. I'd be surprised to see more than about 5cm (maybe even 1cm if the wind isn't onshore), but that precipitation in the west could well fall as heavy snow if it reaches as far east as us, so who knows

If you look carefully, this event is similar to the New Years Day event, but it has been rotated 45º so the winds are N rather than NE, so less shower activity will get inland.

Edited January 26, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

My kids at school are asking when is it going to snow and how heavy etc? i know its still quite far away but when do ya think we will get a covering?