North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

My kids at school are asking when is it going to snow and how heavy etc? i know its still quite far away but when do ya think we will get a covering?

You're kids? Didn't know they were taking on teachers so young!

You might get a covering on Thursday, you'll probably get more showers than us further north to start with. If you do get any cover on Thursday you could lose it on Friday when the mild sector comes down probably bringing rain to low levels.

GFS 12z is an excellent run for us. We would all get plenty of snow if that happened

[Snowstorm1]

You're kids? Didn't know they were taking on teachers so young!

You might get a covering on Thursday, you'll probably get more showers than us further north to start with. If you do get any cover on Thursday you could lose it on Friday when the mild sector comes down probably bringing rain to low levels.

GFS 12z is an excellent run for us. We would all get plenty of snow if that happened

I worded it wrong i meant kids in my school lmao im only 14

And ill bank thursday but im intrigued about friday hopefully we could get snow?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I worded it wrong i meant kids in my school lmao im only 14

And ill bank thursday but im intrigued about friday hopefully we could get snow?

Hopefully there is a chance. Just depends on the positioning of the mild sector which won't be cleared up until closer to the event.

I think in this situation you want to be under the eastern side of the PPN, where the upper air temps should be lowest.

[Snowstorm1]

Hopefully there is a chance. Just depends on the positioning of the mild sector which won't be cleared up until closer to the event.

I think in this situation you want to be under the eastern side of the PPN, where the upper air temps should be lowest.

And us in the north EAST have a decent chance been on the eastern side and if we got snow it would be an awful lot and that would just be the start anybody seen sunday

[Geordiesnow]

The problem for us that for most of this cold shot, the flow is coming from a NW/NNW direction which will lead us dry i would of thought. And when there is PPN, the mild sector is over us although the cold air does dig in behind. The UKMO is better regarding that the mild sector is not much of a feature but does that mean the PPN is further west? I also tend to find the GFS is better handling mild sectors than the UKMO but i would love for the UKMO to be accurate on this one.

If the low from Norway heads down towards us like the UKMO is showing(and the GFS 12Z also hints at this) then we might get some fun and games but this is 120 hours away so it is subject to change.

[Alex95]

Well the ECM 12z has certainly shocked me! The initial northerly isn't much good as the wind becomes NW never mind NNW, but the low over Scandinavia moves over us by Sunday / Monday and I don't know what that would produce, then a severe easterly kicks in midweek as the low sinks south and northern blocking explodes! My only problem with this happening is that I might not get to the Lake District next Friday Good job its only one run!

[Moor Driver]

dosen't look like my fish ponds are going to thaw before they refreeze.lots of dead fish under the ice

Mine thawed this weekend. Four dead so far, so sad.

[Alex95]

Local pond still got some ice on it, the ice was at least a foot deep mind, you could see this around an area which had been cleared so that the ducks could survive!

[Typhoon John]

ECM 12z is amazing.

I'd be snowed in all next week.

[Alex95]

Has anyone got any thoughts about that low moving down from Scandinavia on Sunday? Would much precipitation be associated with it?

[peterf]

Mine thawed this weekend. Four dead so far, so sad.

lost me big goldie,had him 10 years this summer.he's bred hundreds of younguns though,so i hope some of the smaller ones have gone to the 3ft depth and survived.was quite upsetting seeing him stuck under the ice today lol.

[Geordiesnow]

Has anyone got any thoughts about that low moving down from Scandinavia on Sunday? Would much precipitation be associated with it?

Yep there would be but i think there is a mild sector with it so could turn things marginal. I prefer if the UKMO or even the GFS occurs as the mild sector would be less of a problem(especially with the latter) however the latter may also have less PPN with it as its the furthest away.

Still too far out and as i said earlier, subject to alot of change.

[Alex95]

Yep there would be but i think there is a mild sector with it so could turn things marginal. I prefer if the UKMO or even the GFS occurs as the mild sector would be less of a problem(especially with the latter) however the latter may also have less PPN with it as its the furthest away.

Still too far out and as i said earlier, subject to alot of change.

Ta, pretty much as I suspected - interesting!

[Geordiesnow]

Well the GFS has the low closer to us but it takes an age for it to get to our region, i think there would still be some PPN on it however.

I still prefer what the UKMO shows regarding the low but this will probably change by the morning.

Shame that the flow for most of this cold spell will be NW'ly, could be a frustrating spell of weather coming up as you watch all those snow showers hitting the sea and we stay sunny and dry.

[topsweep1506]

Just wondering if anyone can see the large gust front on the shower passing Tynemouth at the moment (1538)

[Andy_]

areet guys, another cold spell is on our door step seems a reasonable time for me to start posting again

very ominious black cloud to our east beefed up from the north sea, hopefully a good sign we can get some showers from the north/northwesterly flow during friday and onwards. hopefully we can get plenty inland, i think my position fairly near the coast may help me catch a good few showers like, heres hopeing .

[NL]

Just wondering if anyone can see the large gust front on the shower passing Tynemouth at the moment (1538)

Aye just watched it from my bedroom window, came along really quickly looked like it could have spawned a few funnels, clouds were well turbulent spinning and turning especially the fractus...should have captured a few shots of it.....

[Snowstorm1]

Im utterrly clue less to what is going to happen? my thoughts below

Thursday night/Friday = rain/snow cud be either

Fri night/Sat = snow showers spreading inland but no further than 15miles inland

Then dont have a clue lmao!

[Rollo]

I do not see a lot of snow coming from the Northerly,maybe 3-4 cms in lucky areas-it is later next week where I am concentrating.

[Andy_]

gfs is giving me a headache... this morning/last night it had snow potentional for the whole run, now its moved it to feb the 8th and anticylonic gloom will probably happen between the northerly and the phantom easterly that probably won't happen as its in deep fi. one day we will have a reliable model, one day.

who else is looking forward to summer? lmao, that torrential downpour earlier reminded me of july 2009 - my sky box even went a bit wierd again aha good times

[peterf]

gfs is giving me a headache... this morning/last night it had snow potentional for the whole run, now its moved it to feb the 8th and anticylonic gloom will probably happen between the northerly and the phantom easterly that probably won't happen as its in deep fi. one day we will have a reliable model, one day.

who else is looking forward to summer? lmao, that torrential downpour earlier reminded me of july 2009 - my sky box even went a bit wierd again aha good times

i'll settle for spring,tatties and onions are all primed for burial lol.

[Alex95]

Im utterrly clue less to what is going to happen? my thoughts below

Thursday night/Friday = rain/snow cud be either

Fri night/Sat = snow showers spreading inland but no further than 15miles inland

Then dont have a clue lmao!

Yep that's it I'm afraid, on Sat most of the snow showers won't even affect places more than about 5 miles of the coast though, and even there its touch and go. I think we'll see a dusting inland at best, with 2-3 inches on some favoured places within a few miles of the coast.

Still, I look forward to seeing the sun again, and it'll be nice and crisp

[Snowstorm1]

Yep that's it I'm afraid, on Sat most of the snow showers won't even affect places more than about 5 miles of the coast though, and even there its touch and go. I think we'll see a dusting inland at best, with 2-3 inches on some favoured places within a few miles of the coast.

Still, I look forward to seeing the sun again, and it'll be nice and crisp

What about me ? and how do you find out how far away from the coast you are?

[Cloud 10]

What about me ? and how do you find out how far away from the coast you are?

Measure Distance on a Map

You are about 10 miles from the coast.

Edited January 27, 2010 by Cloud 10

[Snowstorm1]

Measure Distance on a Map

You are about 10 miles from the coast.

So the 8miles from the coast was correct thanks That still give me a fighting chance