Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[SteveElbows]

eek hope not, i've gotta babysit for my sister and the thought of having to ride my enfield back 5 miles in heavy snow is not a good one

I'll take about 2am plox!

Im not predicting that any snow will reach us by midnight, only that the reality for what is in store for the midlands (if anything) should be clearer by then, given how much some of the stuff on the radar has already died down.

Of course I could be wrong and it will still be unclear when I go to bed at 2 or 3am, time will tell, certainly I was more excited a few hours ago than now, but Im probably not reading the radar and charts in a very sophisticated way.

[kar999]

....just thought i would have a quick look in here as the NW thread is very quiet,just had a look at the rain today radar and this band seems to be moving quite fast

Anyone confirm

No PPN here but winds have picked up significantly in the last half hour and starting to gust.

[Paceyboy]

The amount of pessimistic posts on here are making my eyes sore!

I think we should at least get a covering in most of the midlands region, probably Leicester westwards in the main i should think. The precipitation is dying yes but look to the south, that is where our precipitation will come from(and probably decay lol)

But yes, dont write this off completely its only 17:30 and the band is in spitting distance of Hereford!

[Costa Del Fal]

Your all very pessimistic again i see! This is not to mean be excited which you shouldnt but many of you did this on sunday and look what we had overnight! The West Midlands in particular should get a decent covering.

Lets not write this off now.

[ANYWEATHER]

Afternoon All. Interesting Wintry weather for us Midlanders more so the West Midlands. It looks as though the front moving into the South West and SW Wales will make very slow progress north and east over the next 12hrs. A shortwave trough develops along that front later today and overnight so that will slow the front down and aid in rejuvinating the front over our area tomorrow.As the front approaches it will also pull in some colder air from the NorthEast so that is likely to make the precip, snow, right down to low levels. Ive highlighted in red where the greatest risk of heavy snow will be tomorrow and the Green area where its likely to be lighter and less disruptive. Its a developing situation, but yes I really do think someone may get some decent snowfall out of this.... :lol: :blink:

For any on here this is my thoughts, posted it earlier ,nothing changed!Go back to page 5 for charts...

Edited January 12, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[weather_it_will]

I think this could be very good for the South Midlands where the snow could stall and be persistant all day Wednesday.

Or I could be talking rubbish. here's hoping we all get a day of snow.. :blink:

[picog]

Your all very pessimistic again i see! This is not to mean be excited which you shouldnt but many of you did this on sunday and look what we had overnight! The West Midlands in particular should get a decent covering.

Lets not write this off now.

Sorry for adding to the pessimism, but isn't the band weakening and disintegrating over Wales? All the really good stuff is being wasted out in the Channel! Maybe it will pep up again later.

[andy_leics22]

Your all very pessimistic again i see! This is not to mean be excited which you shouldnt but many of you did this on sunday and look what we had overnight! The West Midlands in particular should get a decent covering.

Lets not write this off now.

Well you aren't going to be pessimistic because you are in Stourbridge and i'm in Leicester, the difference is big in this event :blink:

[Paceyboy]

Sorry for adding to the pessimism, but isn't the band weakening and disintegrating over Wales? All the really good stuff is being wasted out in the Channel! Maybe it will pep up again later.

The channel is where our ppn will probably come from as the whole band is moving N/NE....

[Hailsowen]

My map ealier still stands. :blink:

Anyway, in the longer term, this will probably be the last effort of snow before a mild blip. Then hopefully another cold spell! :lol:

[A.J]

Your all very pessimistic again i see! This is not to mean be excited which you shouldnt but many of you did this on sunday and look what we had overnight! The West Midlands in particular should get a decent covering.

Lets not write this off now.

Did I miss something Luke??

I think a few upland areas (Malvern hills for example, maybe Clent Hills) might see a dusting, but that will be about it I think....The snowfall is light at best in its northern flank, which will only weaken further..The heavier precip further south simply wont make it to the West Midlands...The main energy staying way down south away from our region...Sorry, just looking at current/predicted radar & models and being realistic

[Costa Del Fal]

Well you aren't going to be pessimistic because you are in Stourbridge and i'm in Leicester, the difference is big in this event :blink:

:lol: Well yes in this event we will do much better if we get anything. I reckon some light snow for a time for you lot but nothing significant unfortunately.

I must say ive had enough of the cold now but one last burst of snow would be great. The first day about 10c warrants an emergency heatwave warning. :lol:

[picog]

The channel is where our ppn will probably come from as the whole band is moving N/NE....

If it moves N/NE the main action will go east of us in the west midlands? Speaking here from a south shropshire standpoint.

[Costa Del Fal]

Did I miss something Luke??

I think a few upland areas (Malvern hills for example, maybe Clent Hills) might see a dusting, but that will be about it I think....The snowfall is light at best in its northern flank, which will only weaken further..The heavier precip further south simply wont make it to the West Midlands...The main energy staying way down south away from our region...Sorry, just looking at current/predicted radar & models and being realistic

I certainly dont expect much in the heavier side but we need to give this time. I feel its too early to be writing it off right now.

[andy_leics22]

:blink: Well yes in this event we will do much better if we get anything. I reckon some light snow for a time for you lot but nothing significant unfortunately.

I must say ive had enough of the cold now but one last burst of snow would be great. The first day about 10c warrants an emergency heatwave warning. :lol:

When it gets milder and the temp hits 10c it will actually feel warm!! It's amazing but when it hits March/April and temps hit 16-17c it feels warm enough to walk around in just a t-shirt because you have become used to the cold. When it gets down to 16-17c in September/October though it feels chilly and you need to wear a coat :lol:

[Serendipity]

I agree with those suggesting just a covering. Nothing seems to be moving very fast and it does seem to weaken quite significantly as it moves north / north east.

[Paceyboy]

If it moves N/NE the main action will go east of us in the west midlands? Speaking here from a south shropshire standpoint.

Sorry more northerly i should have thought

[Costa Del Fal]

When it gets milder and the temp hits 10c it will actually feel warm!! It's amazing but when it hits March/April and temps hit 16-17c it feels warm enough to walk around in just a t-shirt because you have become used to the cold. When it gets down to 16-17c in September/October though it feels chilly and you need to wear a coat

After last February i remember about 12 or 13c towards the end of the month feeling really quite balmy! However once youve got used to it it feels chiller again.

Now i know the BBC maps should be taken with the finest pinch of salt but they now show more heavier ppn with snow here from about 3am all the way till 3pm in the afternoon. Again take them with a pinch of salt.

[weather_it_will]

Weather warning for my area Oxfordshire, says up to 5cm tonight, and another 5cm possible tomorrow.

I am very optimistic this will be quite good for me. :lol:

[Gord]

Well i haven't a clue with this one!

Going on recent form, we tend to miss more than hit..but when we do hit we really hit!

Certainly an interesting situation. I'm niether pessimistic or optimistic this time...just want to know how it'll all pan out!

[Costa Del Fal]

Well i haven't a clue with this one!

Going on recent form, we tend to miss more than hit..but when we do hit we really hit!

Certainly an interesting situation. I'm niether pessimistic or optimistic this time...just want to know how it'll all pan out!

Thats exactly how i feel and how some others should feel in the West Midlands particularly.

[SteveElbows]

Im having fun exploding my brain by comparing the radar to the 12Z NMM. Depending on what you look at, the reality is either bang on time, or several hours ahead of the model (eg the bit over the isle of wight at the moment). Also depending on which way you scrunch your eyes, the stuff in the south may be turning to head up the country a little earlier than some models predicted.

Im making a meal out of this event because I dont know how long I will have to wait till the next one. I enjoy comparing the reality to the models, but I dont know much about weather so I dont think anybody should take too much heed of my posts. Certainly there have been many events in recent weeks that made me glad Im not a weather forecaster - my sympathies to those with that job, its amazing how sometimes it can still be rather hard to know what is going to happen just hours from an event, whilst at the same time Ive been quite impressed with how the different models get the general trends right.

[Gord]

In my view, its all going as expected anyway. Its slowing up and if it gets here, it'll take a while to get here. Its only 6:15pm and if it does arrive, its not due to arrive until overnight anyway.

So nothing is going wrong yet. All the places that were due to get hit badly today are getting hit. The front is slowing up considerable, that was expected.

A very slow few hours ahead!

[andy_leics22]

Looking at the BBC forecast and the models.. It does actually look decent for West Midlands. 1-2 in inches possible I feel. Places like Leicester though... Hmmm 2cm tops.

[Costa Del Fal]

In my view, its all going as expected anyway. Its slowing up and if it gets here, it'll take a while to get here. Its only 6:15pm and if it does arrive, its not due to arrive until overnight anyway.

So nothing is going wrong yet. All the places that were due to get hit badly today are getting hit. The front is slowing up considerable, that was expected.

A very slow few hours ahead!

Yep but if it gets here (Which it should!) then it will be quite slow moving here too.