South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[West is Best]

Rain

[snowlight robbery]

Wow that looks a mighty swathe of prec currently coming in and around Portland at mo,I am near Poole Harbour is it bringing snow or staying as planned rain on coast,just in from work

[Paul Sherman]

Rain

Oh

[aspire27]

Much sooner based on what?

Local BBC yesterday were having snow into Somerset by the afternoon. Looking at the radar as its still doing whatever its doing over Lands End we would be looking at a good few hours yet.

No snow forecast into North Somerset until after 18.00, moved in much quicker.

[Nights King]

Looks good for snow in the next couple of hours. I only hope it stays as snow, if so, could be looking at a few cm's.

I remember them saying it could briefly turn to rain lower levels but then turn back to snow as night falls.

I just came back from local town wells where most is thawing and then coming back it still looks great with drifts every where so I wonder what it could look like by tomoro lunch time!?

That front has made a fair bit of progress last hour or so, could get a pasting on hills but looking at radar id say 10cm could be conservative fig?

does the speed of this front moving in change the rate at which it could turn to rain?

Edited January 12, 2010 by mullender83

[dogs32]

Bit concerned about that hole developing.

any hook's

I wouldnt mind seeing a snow nado..

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

Panic not, peeps......it will be here at 4.50 this afternoon! See attached warnings.

[Paul]

Very much sooner.

This could all rush in over the next five hours then that might be it!!

It's actually pretty much where it was forecast to be - this is from the 6z:

Radar (shouldn't really post this):

[JonGill]

Just starting here. Looks like a sleety rain with a few larger flakes mixed in.

[Nights King]

It's actually pretty much where it was forecast to be - this is from the 6z:

Radar (shouldn't really post this):

Yes it does seem close however it does seem more intense?

[SteveB]

I remember them saying it could briefly turn to rain lower levels but then turn back to snow as night falls.

I just came back from local town wells where most is thawing and then coming back it still looks great with drifts every where so I wonder what it could look like by tomoro lunch time!?

That front has made a fair bit of progress last hour or so, could get a pasting on hills but looking at radar id say 10cm could be conservative fig?

does the speed of this front moving in change the rate at which it could turn to rain?

Looking good on radar, the leading edge right across the front is showing as snow on the radar. Some if not most are going to see snow fall north of say Minehead in the next couple of hours.

[aspire27]

Looking good on radar, the leading edge right across the front is showing as snow on the radar. Some if not most are going to see snow fall north of say Minehead in the next couple of hours.

You should get it just before me in Weston. Hope you get snow there mate, I know what being near that coast can do! Good luck.

[Wilxy]

Any one in somerset can report snow would make me feel much better

[Nights King]

Any one in somerset can report snow would make me feel much better

Yes i have about half a foot so far!!

Well on the ground

[SteveB]

You should get it just before me in Weston. Hope you get snow there mate, I know what being near that coast can do! Good luck.

Hoping because the winds are coming from the south east, being near the coast should make (hopefully) no difference.

[Wilxy]

Yes i have about half a foot so far!!

Well on the ground

Nice

[aspire27]

Hoping because the winds are coming from the south east, being near the coast should make (hopefully) no difference.

Yep good shout. The wind here is picking up a bit. According to the NW Radar it is right on Westons doorstep.

[JonGill]

Still just a sleety rain here with a few flakes mixed in.

[Paul]

Nmm 6z run tends to turn it to snow quite widely (away from Cornwall where it's looking like rain all the way) after some initial rain for some during the rest of the afternoon and evening, before turning it back to rain overnight and into tomorrow from the southwest.

[Nights King]

Yep good shout. The wind here is picking up a bit. According to the NW Radar it is right on Westons doorstep.

Its so close i can almost smell it. I was just back playing it and working out distance in 5min time frames and i rekon we will see first flutter in around half hour 45 mins.

Friends just said its snowing hard in exeter now

Edited January 12, 2010 by mullender83

[musician]

Wow that looks a mighty swathe of prec currently coming in and around Portland at mo,I am near Poole Harbour is it bringing snow or staying as planned rain on coast,just in from work

Looks like about 20 miles of snow on the radar, then sleet, then........

[Godot]

Snowing here now.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

It's not so much it reaching here, it's its intensity by the time it does. The MetO high resolution model has it starting to lose intensity very quickly though the evening. It'll be late evening before it makes it here I think.

Of course it's a nowcast situation and developing with each passing hour.

Time will tell as they say

Lager, Bitter or Cider?

I know for a fact the cider can be pretty handy in the West Country so I'll go for a pint of the local brew

NAE despite showing intensification weakening still retains some moderate pulses in the proximity of Bristol. There has been a remarkably consistent signal for this zone from Somerset N to Bristol - especially W extents of Bristol up the M5 wrapping around Gloucester way into South East Wales. I do note the main VORTMAX lobe is retained around Somerset between 15Z and 18Z following by strong PVA by 00Z to 06Z Wed.

Below I have annotated the persistent mid level forcing pattern and where VORTMAX is sustained the longest giving an idea on where PPN is likely to be most persistent and perhaps where some of the high totals are expected on this theory. Note the border of Devon into South Somerset.

[SteveB]

Yep good shout. The wind here is picking up a bit. According to the NW Radar it is right on Westons doorstep.

I am currently in Nailsea working, so I don't know whether it is snowing or not in Weston.

Edited January 12, 2010 by SteveB

[snowlight robbery]

Well here goes,should begin here any minute,but what as?????????????