South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

I know for a fact the cider can be pretty handy in the West Country so I'll go for a pint of the local brew :unsure:

NAE despite showing intensification weakening still retains some moderate pulses in the proximity of Bristol. There has been a remarkably consistent signal for this zone from Somerset N to Bristol - especially W extents of Bristol up the M5 wrapping around Gloucester way into South East Wales. I do note the main VORTMAX lobe is retained around Somerset between 15Z and 18Z following by strong PVA by 00Z to 06Z Wed.

Below I have annotated the persistent mid level forcing pattern and where VORTMAX is sustained the longest giving an idea on where PPN is likely to be most persistent and perhaps where some of the high totals are expected on this theory. Note the border of Devon into South Somerset.

In relation to the analysis of persistence of the PVA pattern above:

"I've done a few manual calculations based on the latest mid level 700hpa vorticity over the next 24/36 hour period. The main zone appears to be locked into Dartmoor/Exmoor and bordering areas of Somerset towards Bridgewater and Tewkesbury. Next I've worked out the T850 wavering boundary and theta-e which unsurprisingly run along the trough axis ... See Moreand the possibility of stalling. Areas E of the Devon border run a -4/-5 boundary layer profile with theta-e average of +17. Moderate intensity PPN will initially fall as sleet but readily turn to snow under the persistence of the VORTMAX. So main areas in terms of persistence of precipitation over time + the right side of cold boundary remain to be higher ground of Dartmoor/Exmoor running into much of South Somerset away from the coast as far North as Bridgewater and Glastonbury. Taunton is in a good spot. The 2nd zone is defined where 2 or more strong vorticity lobes affect the area through the period. These are remaining areas into Bristol and generally W of Bath and N along the M5 into the SE quadrant of Wales including the Forest of Dean. The 3rd zone is an area where 1 or slightly more moderate to strong vorticity lobes cross the area and include Swindon"

This essentially indicates that the cold boundary will be most effective around areas of South Somerset with VORT values moving into S Wales away from the coast. Persistence concludes Somerset to be in the CORE ZONE with regards to longevity. Also note though the cold air to the N will mean snow is more in the equation - rather than a transition mix. So Bristol still looks good, based on the VORTMAX projected to move through in the next few hours.

I've added a more detailed version of the above:

Edited January 12, 2010 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[Snowkissed]

rain me thinks, for all of dorset especially here in xchurch, i can see our snow shield up and ready for action lol

Someone just called in to Heart Radio station and said it was snowing in Wimborne and it was settling. Well it isn't snowing here in Colehill.....yet!

[WESTERN SNOWS]

This was my worry yesterday.....that this strong SE'ly wind would blow it more towards the NW. :unsure:

thing is if you look at the clouds they are moving from south east to north west hence the wind so this aint a surprise really just wonder how this will affect where i am though?

[big_treacle]

Nothing here yet (Canford Heath) just dark & blowy...

[snowlight robbery]

Ref Dorset peeps, Looks like I will be 1st on the hit list in sunny Corfe so will let you all know whether the Dorset force field is primed and ready for action deflecting the snow straight around us!!!!!!!!!!!

[dancing daisy]

It's going to take alot of snow for it to set, after thats sleety rain!

[Snowkissed]

Ref Dorset peeps, Looks like I will be 1st on the hit list in sunny Corfe so will let you all know whether the Dorset force field is primed and ready for action deflecting the snow straight around us!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay SR ... chocs away lol !

[big_treacle]

Ref Dorset peeps, Looks like I will be 1st on the hit list in sunny Corfe so will let you all know whether the Dorset force field is primed and ready for action deflecting the snow straight around us!!!!!!!!!!!

It's that castle defending us! It has magical snow shielding properties

[Karen Ann]

Where's all the Dorset peeps?,Need a bit of input from you,rain,sleet or snow?

I'm a Dorset peep but not much help as I'm east of you! You'll see 'something' before me. At present, chilly, windy and dry.

The atmosphere of anticipation on here is quite fun - turning me into a quivering nervous 'will it, won't it' wreck. Keep it going, it'll give me a good excuse to open a bottle of red later :unsure:

Edited January 12, 2010 by Karen Ann

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Hi all - freezing rain and snow here in Jersey ... roads becoming treacherous again. Forecast is for the precipitation to turn to rain here later this evening. Temp at Jersey Airport currently 0.4c :unsure:

How much snow did you get the other day from that streamer?

[isickle]

Precipitation has just reached J22 of M5 (Highbridge/B.O.S). Falling as wet snow. Temperature +2.5. Ian

[snowlight robbery]

Okay SR ... chocs away lol !

Could do with a couple of updates later on please as I work on a golf course just up the road from you,thx

[West is Best]

Non-event here. A few spits of rain.

Ian Fergusson got it right first time around.

[Snowcherries]

To be fair the later it reaches dorset the better, gives those temps a chance to drop a bit. Tally ho

[snowlight robbery]

I'm a Dorset peep but not much help as I'm east of you! You'll see 'something' before me. At present, chilly, windy and dry.

The atmosphere of anticipation on here is quite fun - turning me into a quivering nervous 'will it, won't it' wreck. Keep it going, it'll give me a good excuse to open a bottle of red later

Actually becomes sutipdly addictive,"Go away kids I'm on Netweather!". Loads of snow on golf course by you still!!!

[Snowkissed]

Could do with a couple of updates later on please as I work on a golf course just up the road from you,thx

Will be working from 5.00pm to 6.00pm - will update you as soon as I can after 6.00pm.

[ianeggbert]

Sleet here in Bridgwater, temp steady for the last hour at +1.7

could be interesting later I think

[watcheroftheskies]

Afternoon all,

Been an avid reader in here for past week...Nice friendly bunch compared to some threads!

Waiting patiently here in North Wilts for it to kick off tonight,12z gfs seems to keep the snow around a bit longer/heavier than previous runs.Turning to rain later tomorrow?

Peeps in wales thread having blizzard conditions now.

Cheers

WOTS

[Nights King]

Just started to snow here although it is light!

[aspire27]

First Flakes in Yatton.

[butler_son]

Snowlight Robbery, what did you do? I've never seen so many Dorset people climb out of the woodwork quite like they've just done!

Well, good luck to you all at any rate! I shall enjoy my non event 150 miles north of God's Own County!

[biggiemauls]

Afternoon all,

Been an avid reader in here for past week...Nice friendly bunch compared to some threads!

Waiting patiently here in North Wilts for it to kick off tonight,12z gfs seems to keep the snow around a bit longer/heavier than previous runs.Turning to rain later tomorrow?

Peeps in wales thread having blizzard conditions now.

Cheers

WOTS

Another wiltshire head! Welcome! Fingers crossed we see some tonight!

[Karen Ann]

Actually becomes sutipdly addictive,"Go away kids I'm on Netweather!". Loads of snow on golf course by you still!!!

Tis fun. Our neighbour said the golf course was still pretty covered, mad nut still playing most mornings. Let us know if you see anything hopeful coming our way. Wind has picked up here somewhat in the last 10 mins, pretty gusty.

[fromey]

afternoon all, just started to snow here in frome.

fromey

[aspire27]

Really stong wind. Snow started falling.