Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

so it's the ukmo versus the rest tonight, who will win? let's find out in the morning.

[sandstorm2]

Well, can only say that this is a belter of a run and at last it is coming into a timeframe that we can all maybe see happening, going further out and there is a really cold pool of air heading our way, 492 thicknesses, haven't seen that before in our neck of the woods.

SS2

[Optimus Prime]

-20C Uppers in Scotland on GFS in deep FI!

I make it -17c. Still very cold nonetheless.

Widespread maximum temperatures on Wednesday 10th -4c.

This runs most definitely needs binning.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

And yet the irony against the frost fairs of the GFS is that the latest fax chart backs the UKMO with tropical maritime air knocking on the door by the middle of next week!

Pass.....

[nick sussex]

The op goes bonkers with cold uppers in FI! It's frightening! :blink:

These are some to save for future reference!

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-276.png?18

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-300.png?18

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-264.png?18

I suspect it's a mild outlier! :smiliz19: Nice to see the GFS 18hrs run dealing a blow to that UKMO output, I think we'll see it backtrack tomorrow.

[Jack Wales]

Astonishing 18z GFS this evening, probably a massive cold outlier but I'm going to save the charts for prosterity!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Hopefully the latest model output will see UKMO backtrack in the morning. Insane GFS 18z, will check the overnight runs in the morning

[SP1986]

I think it'll be an outlier in FI but that'll be it ultimately, it's FI demonstrates that it is, like many models, struggling to deal with the signals. I think the FI is too extreme to be taken seriously, the ensembles will give a general idea of the concensus but there's the whole accuracy degree thing.

[nick sussex]

And yet the irony against the frost fairs of the GFS is that the latest fax chart backs the UKMO with tropical maritime air knocking on the door by the middle of next week!

Pass.....

IMO that UKMO output is a pile of nonsense, for it to verify every single global model is wrong, especially as not a single member of the 50 ensemble members of the ECM support it at 144hrs, the warmest member for the Netherlands is just scraping 4c! its 144hrs output would bring something much milder to that region. Looking at its 120hrs fax chart I suspect even if there was some support earlier in the ECM ensembles that at 144hrs the trough would disrupt sending a shortwave se under the block, this is why the ensembles don't back it at 144hrs.

Edited January 29, 2010 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

:smiliz19:

Truly eye watering stuff from the 18z.

[Frosty.]

And yet the irony against the frost fairs of the GFS is that the latest fax chart backs the UKMO with tropical maritime air knocking on the door by the middle of next week!

Pass.....

Just imagine the horror in the morning if the ukmo causes all the other models to fall in line with it, toys will be thrown out of prams left, right and center. That's quite enough excitement for one day.

[SMU]

I refer to post from earlier- the only thing that can stop the Easterly developing is the shortwave allignment at 120 -144 If they are favourable the rest will follow, obviously the 18z is the most severe degree of cold & easterly flow we could expect & it ISNT out of the realms of possibility, however something a little more toned down is likely-

Even so- uppers approaching -15c is a real threat-

Those in the East, or SE or NE- imagine for a moment the worst case scenario-

-20 c upper air, 510 Heights on the 500 MB charts, 500 Thickness & a 40 MPH easterly of the north sea-

Snow ratio-s 1:20

Rates of snow 2/3 inches per hr...heavon :smiliz19: :blink:

Edited January 29, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Bobby]

Don't get too excited because this run is almost certainly a big cold outlier (if it's not we're doomed). But it's very plausible in the mid term, much like the ECM. Can only be a good sign to see runs like this.

[Snowstorm1]

You have to laugh the gfs 18z beats the ecm the other day its like a competition going on who can get the coldest and snowiest scenrio!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

IMO that UKMO output is a pile of nonsense, for it to verify every single global model is wrong, especially as not a single member of the 50 ensemble members of the ECM support it at 144hrs, the warmest member for the Netherlands is just scraping 4c! its 144hrs output would bring something much milder to that region.

I'm not disagreeing with the logic and sense of that at all nick, believe me.

I said myself early this evening they *should* go with the ECM.

Darren Bett has read the net weather forum and drawn the fax chart as a late January 'fool' on the basis of the amount of seagulls he has seen fly over Exeter...

Hopefully so anyway..

[gottolovethisweather]

The GFS has just produced one of the best runs in history. It just shows the potential of this event. With those huge blocking highs you'd expect something good to come out of this eventually.

Hello,

I know nothing about all the intracies of these runs but similar outcomes to what many folk are posting have appeared on several occasions in the last few days so I suppose it's plausible the big beast could be coming.

I must admit I used the GFS thickness runs, 500/1000's etc. for trend spotting in the last cold spell and they seemed accurate enough and eventually were bang on.

What do GP,TEITS,Nick F etc. think is a sensible timeframe from which to get excited at this rate, T96 maybe? also what's your models/charts of choice to best indicate what to expect at the surface, come the reliable timeframe.

Loving the thrill of the chase of East meets West either way

Cheers

STORMBOY

Edited January 29, 2010 by STORMBOY

[Jason M]

Hi All

18Z

The lake effect snow off the N Sea would be immense. Anywhere within 50 miles of the N Sea would be buried until at least May!

Of course its only happened a few times in the last 100 years but.....

I have a feeling that next week could become interesting as the UK sits in the battleground. Highly unlikely that an easterly that severe will occur but even a modified version would cause some fun and games. The overall pattern looks plausible in my view (indeed very plausible).

There will be some worried councils if this still shows by Sunday!!

Jason

Edited January 29, 2010 by Jason M

[FENDER.]

It seems the UKMO is having none of it though. Need it to come on board

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just imagine the horror in the morning if the ukmo causes all the other models to fall in line with it, toys will be thrown out of prams left, right and center. That's quite enough excitement for one day.

*padded rooms are available* lol!

The 18z is extreme (a good laugh) and won't happen. But the ECM, GFS and ensembles etc are more credible tonight than the UKMO and their family fax surely?

But as I have been saying earlier today, it still NEEDS to come into line otherwise as I also said earlier it could be the party pooper yet again.

Edited January 29, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[yamkin]

Great to see an improvement on the JMA/NOGAPS. In recent days the output from these has been relatively poor. At the moment the UKMO +144 is looking rather lonely. Having said this I would be much happier if the 0Z outputs trends towards the E,ly tomorrow morning.

P.S Keep an eye on the trough currently in the N Sea. This will swing SW into NE England/Humber/Lincs/E Anglia later tonight. Some could wake up to a decent covering.

GFS 18Z is an upgrade in my books Peter Cockroft on BBC London program said that the trough will cover the SE and move S/SW.

[Frosty.]

It seems the UKMO is having none of it though. Need it to come on board

And if the ukmo does come on board, either the gfs or ecm will probably jump over board, such is the way of the models.

[Guest]

How about this for a chart worth dismissing:

That could downgrade a long way and still be severe :)

It will never happen but it is worth posting this chart since no other run has even come close to this in terms of cold! Pub run indeed

[nick sussex]

As you know Nick I'm not a fan of the UKMO at T144, and for me for much of the winter the METO has been behind the latest output - look at last Friday they were forecasting zero maxima for the Weds just gone for Central and Eastern areas, but those of looking at the NWP knew that would not be happening.

Perhaps the super computer that they have is about to trump everyone at long last. Let's hope not.

Well it would be typical of its recent history to deal a blow to easterly hopes it has done this in the past but the trend this evening has been towards the ECM, i think its just a bit slow to pick up the signal, thankfully over the last few days its verification stats have dipped with positively the ECM and GEM nudging ahead.

[Weather-history]

IMO that UKMO output is a pile of nonsense, for it to verify every single global model is wrong, especially as not a single member of the 50 ensemble members of the ECM support it at 144hrs, the warmest member for the Netherlands is just scraping 4c! its 144hrs output would bring something much milder to that region. Looking at its 120hrs fax chart I suspect even if there was some support earlier in the ECM ensembles that at 144hrs the trough would disrupt sending a shortwave se under the block, this is why the ensembles don't back it at 144hrs.

Might be better to wait for the London ECM ensembles before passing judgement, though.

[Frosty.]

*padded rooms are available* lol!

The 18z is extreme (a good laugh) and won't happen. But the ECM, GFS and ensembles etc are more credible tonight than the UKMO and their family fax surely?

But as I have been saying earlier today, it still NEEDS to come into line otherwise as I also said earlier it could be the party pooper yet again.

Yes Tamara I hardly dare view the 00z runs in the morning, will be nerve shredding times. So many positives today but a few nasty negatives which leaves a bad taste overnight.