Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

You have to laugh, or cry, at the models sometimes! Just as the GFS produces an almost identical medium term run to the 12z ECM with a battle royal with a block to the NE and weather systems trying to push up from the SW, the 00Z ECM totally ditches the idea and blows the block away!

UKMO is even worse, in fact is miles away from cold at +120 and +144.

There is a massive scatter on the GFS ensembles for London, but overall no where near as promising as they were.

The models are confused thats all, that do not know yet what happens to the troughing

and energy in the atlantic as the block moves west. The big three models are different to

each other which shows they are struggling, the same happened to the troughing over

Scandinavia.

This issue I think will be finally sorted by the end of the weekend and whether that means

the cold is delayed by a day or two I do not know but I am still as confident as ever the

block and the cold is coming.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Its still showing, as long as the trend continues on Sunday and Monday we live in hope. Lets see what T.E.I.T.S. and Steve make of this I'm sure they will be able to explain although I think they were hoping for the UKMO to come into line with the other runs, very dissapointing because we expected better still not over yet.

[Eugene]

Yeah ecm really blows the block away, what a powerful atlantic on that run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

[billy]

ECM gets there in the end . NOGAPS says no to the easterly this morning. All the models seem uncertain apart from the UKMO which just sticks to its guns .

[KTtom]

No wrong it doesnt at all and if that is a convincing atlantic breakdown run to you then you obviously havent lived through mild atlantic dominated winters before, no worries from me at all it will stay cold for weeks on end just like it has, models always have wobbles and come good in the end, the ensembles are still COLD.

Well, if I lived in Sweeden I might agree with you, but the chart below clearly shows the front having pushed right through the country with SW winds everywhere! Thats at +168, anything after is fantasy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[Iceberg]

The message for today, is don't look for truth in the models !.

ECM isn't that poor, but it's not as good as the 12Z run by a long way, you also have to admit that the GFS ENS isn't as good either as it shows too much scatter with little trend, yesterdays 12Z ECM EPS also shows a lot of scatter. It should be added that both runs do though average/mean out a cold spell of weather.

It's noticable that the GFS and METO bring up a fresh batch of Energy from way off towards Florida, obviously this is a bit akin to adding petrol to a small flame as it hits the colder air coming off the eastern seaboard, hence the models are showing a 940 low, ECM also does this.

There are big differences though in how they handle this extra energy and the timing of the interaction.

The extra energy doesn't need to be a problem, not if it stay out west enough and throws up a ridge, however if al la UKMET it comes into an elongated trough set up, then it goes over the top of the High, almost a critically bad set up.

ECM brings the energy up with a 48 hr delay, slows it down and stalls it out west, which is why is gets their in the end.

GFS deals with it in a much neater why, with a similar timeframe as UKMETO approx 96hrs, it quickly moves up and into main upper low and throws up a ridge stalling it sooner, allowing the Siberian/Scandy high to move over, which in turns opens the door for the Jet to go under the ridge.

GFS spoils it a bit in the longer timeframe by bringing yet more energy in.

This IMO is the paradox of Feb that GP has been talking about. We have two options a strong jet under cutting, which could provide considerable snow, assuming the high to the N has enough strength.

The second option is a strong jet that keeps the cold out of reach.

So I get back to my original statement don't look for truth in the models atm. I think it will take 48 hrs to get some agreement on what to do with the Florida energy and there might well be more issues after that.

A much more uncertain Iceberg...

[yamkin]

Well, if I lived in Sweeden I might agree with you, but the chart below clearly shows the front having pushed right through the country with SW winds everywhere! Thats at +168, anything after is fantasy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Agreed, but the trend towards an Easterly is still there in the latter FI stages. UKMO is definitely on a wobble. Ian Fergusson, Paul Hudson etc are looking at a possible blast from the East next week which means they are not going along with the UKMO model output.

[PB22]

I won't be popular for saying this, but its got to be said. Its time for some reality this morning I'm afraid folks and its time to stop chasing a fruitless easterly which remains in FI and simply doesn't get any closer. I am sure people will try and dress it up and claim that we are still on course for an easterly in around T+200 but in my eyes we need to accept its simply not going to happen.

This is the third run in a row from the UKMO that sticks to a similar theme and simply wants nothing to do with any potential easterly and we need to accept this now. Yesterday's T+144 outlook from the UKMO is now at T+120 and the model is being very consistent (more so than the rest who keep flipping about). The model also has an excellent record in the past of not going down the easterly route and proving to be right.

Given that the rest of the 00z model output this morning is slowly playing catch up and edging towards the UKMO it is easy IMO to see which way this is headed. I just wonder how long it will take the Met Office to catch up? I'd suspect most of the models will lean even further towards the UKMO outlook by the 12z runs tonight, if not by tomorrow morning.

My advice, get out and enjoy the snow (if you have any) this weekend, because this could be the last of it for a while.

[MR EXTREMES]

I won't be popular for saying this, but its got to be said. Its time for some reality this morning I'm afraid folks and its time to stop chasing a fruitless easterly which remains in FI and simply doesn't get any closer. I am sure people will try and dress it up and claim that we are still on course for an easterly in around T+200 but in my eyes we need to accept its simply not going to happen.

This is the third run in a row from the UKMO that sticks to a similar theme and simply wants nothing to do with any potential easterly and we need to accept this now. Yesterday's T+144 outlook from the UKMO is now at T+120 and the model is being very consistent (more so than the rest who keep flipping about). The model also has an excellent record in the past of not going down the easterly route and proving to be right.

Given that the rest of the 00z model output this morning is slowly playing catch up and edging towards the UKMO it is easy IMO to see which way this is headed. I just wonder how long it will take the Met Office to catch up? I'd suspect most of the models will lean even further towards the UKMO outlook by the 12z runs tonight, if not by tomorrow morning.

My advice, get out and enjoy the snow (if you have any) this weekend, because this could be the last of it for a while.

to be fair its ukmo there is not much difference from yesterday and yet there medium outlook is good with them calling a easterly.

i think its very much on thats my opion as you have had yours to much support for the easterly.

[billy]

Hi Paul , you may be right ,the UKMO is sticking to its guns and is the only consistent model over the last 3 days. But theres still enough uncertainty showing in the other models , so im not giving up on the easterly yet. Some nice runs in the GFS ensembles again this morning. I'll have number 6,10,14 or 20 please.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Hmm Im not sure, I wouldnt be too hasty in defeat until Monday, I forgot who said it but some 1 did say the runs may a bit eratic this weekend and Paul I hope you are wrong just this time please.

[PB22]

to be fair its ukmo there is not much difference from yesterday and yet there medium outlook is good with them calling a easterly.

i think its very much on thats my opion as you have had yours to much support for the easterly.

The UKMO medium term outlook will probably catch up in the next couple of days. You're right in saying that there's not much difference from yesterday's charts on the UKMO model, which for me is the worrying thing as the UKMO is being consistent in its outlook of providing that little bit more in the way of energy into the northern arm of the jet, and thus the more Atlantic based charts that are being progged.

Hi Billy, yes we cannot totally dismiss the chances of an easterly developing just yet, but sadly this morning the trend is definitely heading away from an easterly outbreak on the 00z models as a whole. Of course, the trend may reverse again, but I certainly won't be holding my breath!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I won't be popular for saying this, but its got to be said. Its time for some reality this morning I'm afraid folks and its time to stop chasing a fruitless easterly which remains in FI and simply doesn't get any closer. I am sure people will try and dress it up and claim that we are still on course for an easterly in around T+200 but in my eyes we need to accept its simply not going to happen.

This is the third run in a row from the UKMO that sticks to a similar theme and simply wants nothing to do with any potential easterly and we need to accept this now. Yesterday's T+144 outlook from the UKMO is now at T+120 and the model is being very consistent (more so than the rest who keep flipping about). The model also has an excellent record in the past of not going down the easterly route and proving to be right.

Given that the rest of the 00z model output this morning is slowly playing catch up and edging towards the UKMO it is easy IMO to see which way this is headed. I just wonder how long it will take the Met Office to catch up? I'd suspect most of the models will lean even further towards the UKMO outlook by the 12z runs tonight, if not by tomorrow morning.

My advice, get out and enjoy the snow (if you have any) this weekend, because this could be the last of it for a while.

Hi ,

With respect any one that has kept their feet firmly on the ground knows this easterly wasnt due to get started untill around the 8th , and especialy during the 2nd wk of wk of feb , the models have picked up on this trend almost a wk ago now and i knew it would it would get delayed until around that period , the proffessionals over on TheWeatherOutlook has already done front page regarding this and left the question , A valentines day blizzard?

Surely your not nieve into thinkin that every model is picking up the same signal is wrong ??

[Mr.Plow]

The models have been amazing though and for me that's the exciting part.

True it was lovely to wake up to a covering of snow today but that's not what I follow this thread for for it's the second guessing of the models and reading between the lines of the experienced posters. Some very experienced posters seem to wait until there is a set of models which support their view then post and then go silent when the models show breathtaking scenarios.

I am still a novice but I am remaining confident of block staying strong and then bringing the cold this way however I suspect it won't be until tomorrows 12z or later that we can have any degree of confidence in the outcome.

[PB22]

Hmm Im not sure, I wouldnt be too hasty in defeat until Monday, I forgot who said it but some 1 did say the runs may a bit eratic this weekend and Paul I hope you are wrong just this time please.

I hope I am wrong too, I'd love nothing more than a bitter easterly spell!

The worry is a chart like this at just T+96, so we are running out of time fast:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

ECM and GFS are slightly better at that time but the UKMO shows no sign of budging and this is usually a bad omen in my experience.

[bluearmy]

i could repeat the post i made yesterday morning and hope i wont get too much grief!! the gist is, until the shortwave energy stops coming into the northern arm, we have a problem. we now have a series of gulf shortwaves (which NOAA alluded to yesterday). the siberian block is headed sw. as iceberg says, without the atlantic stalling, this block will end up to our sw. i have an awful feeling that we could see a west based -NAO (as GP plumped for yesterday)wihtout us having any ride to get there. the way the ukmo looks at T144 with all that energy past the meridian, the trough could easily become elongated and the arctic high could slide sw, way to our north. the siberian block having become a sceuro or even eastern european high. i hope a few will be a litle less dimissive of the options today - the window remains open but by tomorrows 12z runs, we will see if we are able to get the block into a favourable position before it closes.

a glass half empty post, but worryingly, i cant see to find any more water at the moment.

[Shunter]

Hi Paul , you may be right ,the UKMO is sticking to its guns and is the only consistent model over the last 3 days. But theres still enough uncertainty showing in the other models , so im not giving up on the easterly yet. Some nice runs in the GFS ensembles again this morning. I'll have number 6,10,14 or 20 please.

Indeed, the 00z GFS ens mean for London reaches the 30 year temp average for about an hour in its 16 days. There are still members showing -15c at 850mb, some warm up eh !!

http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[Frosty.]

The ECM 00z still shows a cold SE'ly in FI off a frozen continent, the GFS 00z still shows a very cold but messy FI and the ukmo 00z just looks the same as it did yesterday with low pressure pushing north by T+144 allowing milder air to flood across the uk but I will wait to hear from Fred (BFTP) before I decide whether or not to throw in the towel. There remains a lot of uncertainty and much of next week still looks on the cold side to me, whatever might or might not follow it.

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning everyone!Good news IMHO for those folk looking for another dose of proper Winter.Now I cannot understand some folks negative attitude as regards the Easterly but thats there opinion ,but here is mine. Ive been looking at the models for some days now without posting anything, but there is without doubt a trend to continental cold. I will just concentrate on the gfs, yes it does have its faults ,but dont they all! Its been spotting this trend now for a good many days and its had the occasional wobble but its still singing the same tune.The Easterly starts to effect the UK as early as T144 or by Friday the 5th which a few days ago it was T240, Ok its still a long way off but it has started to come into a more reliable timeframe.....watch this space!

[chionomaniac]

I won't be popular for saying this, but its got to be said. Its time for some reality this morning I'm afraid folks and its time to stop chasing a fruitless easterly which remains in FI and simply doesn't get any closer. I am sure people will try and dress it up and claim that we are still on course for an easterly in around T+200 but in my eyes we need to accept its simply not going to happen.

This is the third run in a row from the UKMO that sticks to a similar theme and simply wants nothing to do with any potential easterly and we need to accept this now. Yesterday's T+144 outlook from the UKMO is now at T+120 and the model is being very consistent (more so than the rest who keep flipping about). The model also has an excellent record in the past of not going down the easterly route and proving to be right.

Given that the rest of the 00z model output this morning is slowly playing catch up and edging towards the UKMO it is easy IMO to see which way this is headed. I just wonder how long it will take the Met Office to catch up? I'd suspect most of the models will lean even further towards the UKMO outlook by the 12z runs tonight, if not by tomorrow morning.

My advice, get out and enjoy the snow (if you have any) this weekend, because this could be the last of it for a while.

Paul, the signs for northern blocking are still strong for around 10 days time. That hasn't changed. When driving to a destination the weather on route can be very different to that when we arrive.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I hope I am wrong too, I'd love nothing more than a bitter easterly spell!

The worry is a chart like this at just T+96, so we are running out of time fast:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

ECM and GFS are slightly better at that time but the UKMO shows no sign of budging and this is usually a bad omen in my experience.

Paul

You say all the models 00z are heading the same way, nope the GFS is much better than yesterday. Ecm not quite as good and UKMO the same. We are talking 120 at best here so FI my friend and to tell folk to accept and get real is a bit far fetched. Next week is far from sorted and I strongly suspect that too much energy is thrown to far NE by the UKMO and indeed the ECM. I agree with above post, I 'll review the models again on the whole Monday runs...we surely will have an answer then. Yesterdays 00z and 12z ECM were on the money, Arctic ridge to halt the Atlantic, negative tilt with SE flow, slowly developing to an easterly/Ne'ly.

BFTP

Edited January 30, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[PB22]

Hi ,

With respect any one that has kept their feet firmly on the ground knows this easterly wasnt due to get started untill around the 8th , and especialy during the 2nd wk of wk of feb , the models have picked up on this trend almost a wk ago now and i knew it would it would get delayed until around that period , the proffessionals over on TheWeatherOutlook has already done front page regarding this and left the question , A valentines day blizzard?

Surely your not nieve into thinkin that every model is picking up the same signal is wrong ??

The ECM was showing an easterly outbreak on last Tuesday's 12z run starting this coming Tuesday (February 2nd), so I am not too sure where you get the 8th as a starting point from:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010012612!!chart.gif

This is now the predicted outcome for Tuesday 2nd - a westerly:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010013000!!/

This sums up what the problem is - any potential easterly outbreak keeps on getting delayed and put back into FI. This morning's model output has trended even further away from any potential easterly getting started. In addition I would argue that not every model is picking up the same signal - the UKMO certainly isn't picking up much of a signal for an easterly!

[nick sussex]

Very disappointing output this morning and unfortunately the UKMO is bullish about driving too much energy into the northern arm of the jet, I'm really very surprised at this given the trend last night. It's amazing just how many times you get a strong block appearing at the same time as the Atlantic desperate to blow it away.

Unfortunately I have to echo Paul B post, if you're looking at trends then this morning is a major shift away from the easterly, the ECM still looks passable but even that is now putting more energy into the jet, the GFS looks similar early on but you really can't have too much faith in it given its propensity to hang onto easterlies for too long, generally its the Euros that lead the way with easterlies, if the ECM and UKMO aren't totally on board then it's normally a bad sign.

If theres no shift back to the easterly this evening then I'm afraid we're going to have to accept it's game up, regardless of what the GFS or any other non European model shows, so last chance saloon time this evening.

As much as theres still a strong signal to develop blocking to the east looking at the UKMO it would take a long time to effect the UK and hence more time for the upstream patterns to be less favourable, i was happy to go with a colder surface se flow whilst waiting for the block to ridge west but the further east the block gets pushed initially the harder the road back.

Edited January 30, 2010 by nick sussex

[Duane S.]

The UKMO medium term outlook will probably catch up in the next couple of days. You're right in saying that there's not much difference from yesterday's charts on the UKMO model, which for me is the worrying thing as the UKMO is being consistent in its outlook of providing that little bit more in the way of energy into the northern arm of the jet, and thus the more Atlantic based charts that are being progged.

Hi Billy, yes we cannot totally dismiss the chances of an easterly developing just yet, but sadly this morning the trend is definitely heading away from an easterly outbreak on the 00z models as a whole. Of course, the trend may reverse again, but I certainly won't be holding my breath!

Bu Paul surely it can hardly be classed as a 'trend'. If by this time tomorrow the models et al have continued in this vein then I would have to agree.

I am concerned, and said so yesterday, about the UKMO. It's on to something and has been toying with more energy in the Northern arm for a few runs now. Other models are starting to look at this as well. I have been saying that we should expect a mild interlude prior to a continental feed but what a couple of the models are hinting at is sending the LP's in over the top which would potentially spell disaster, personally I'm not convinced by this evolution though. The ens are not looking great this morning either though.

These are the 180hr and 174hr charts from yesterday's extreme 18z and this morning's tamed down version on the 00z...

Edited January 30, 2010 by s4lancia

[PB22]

Paul

You say all the models 00z are heading the same way, nope the GFS is much better than yesterday. Ecm not quite as good and UKMO the same. We are talking 120 at best here so FI my friend and to tell folk to accept and get real is a bit far fetched. Next week is far from sorted and I strongly suspect that too much energy is thrown to far NE by the UKMO and indeed the ECM. I agree with above post, I 'll review the models again on the whole Monday runs...we surely will have an answer then.

BFTP

Fred, can't say I agree that the GFS is any better. The ensembles sum up the shift overnight with more in the way of milder outcomes appearing:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Time will of course tell, but I know where my money would be going if I was a betting man.