Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

The ECM is obviously better but not very disimilar to the GFS at t168.

Another excellent run to come.

[MKN]

You don't have to go on Two to here that lol as I am sure someone will say the same thing

on here.

The only thing bad about it, is the facts its 144 hours away. In which time things can change quite alot.

[bluearmy]

the T120 FAX will confirm exeter's view on their own model later.

[Iceberg]

I think we have to remember that although the synoptics are in FI (just, in the case of the ECM).

The key set ups are at T120 IMO.

Just as expected at T192 ECM locks in the easterly.

[January Snowstorm]

Bang on queue from what GP said earlier, the Siberian high is trending West towards Greenland.

That man is a genius!

As I said earlier, add the Ecm also!

Greenland goes yellow

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

the T120 FAX will confirm exeter's view on their own model later.

My own comment about the ECM being much better was of course in relation to the 12z UKMO

Clearly the METO pencil will give clues as which way they want to go. One would expect towards the ECM, taking into account all relevant factors, but we still need full agreement In terms of their own model coming into line with ECM and GFS.

The ECM has another huge -AO on the 12z. Massive blocking over the polar and Greenland regions.

Edited January 29, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[TEITS]

Overall im very happy with the ECM.

Based on the ECM/GFS there does seem the chance of a snow event for E/SE areas prior to the E,lys as we see the battle between the block and the Atlantic engage. However at the moment alot of uncertainity remains but im happy to go with the ECM/GEM/GFS. I just hope the UKMO jumps on board.

Moving to the nearer timeframe and some interest for tomorrow morning.

Looks like a trough is going to move SW during tonight/into tomorrow morning. This is also backed by the NAE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/29/basis12/ukuk/prty/10013006

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/29/basis12/ukuk/prty/10013012_2912.gif

[cooling climate]

As I said the other day its not whether we get into a bitterly cold pattern or not its more

a question of just how cold will it get.

It seems the ECM and the GFS are in a running battle to see which model can produce the

coldest charts.

[Totoro]

What we have at 168 is a potential major snow producer on the ECM...

Shame it's a week away.

[TEITS]

As I said earlier, add the Ecm also!

Greenland goes yellow

The Siberian HP moving eventually to Greenland has been suggested by the GEFS mean for around 3 days now.

Actually im wrong in what I said above.

The suggestion from the GEFS mean is we have HP extending from the NE all the way across to Greenland. This can be seen on the ECM +240. I have posted the Oslo/Iceland SLP ensembles numerous times showing this over the past few days.

Edited January 29, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Mark Bayley]

Good ECM tonight. Takes a while for the colder 850hpas to reach us, with the -5850hpa not reaching western Wales and the South west. Overall its the trend we should be looking for, not the specifics. So i wouldn't be that concerned

Will be interesting to see the ensembles later

[Eugene]

Much much better JMA 12Z tonight as well as nogaps, UKMO 12Z looks very lonely tonight and wrong.

[nick sussex]

Nice to see the ECM sticking to its 00hrs output, thats really a very good run ,its plausible however tonights UKMO raw output is disappointing, although it could eventually get to the easterly it would take too long and so more time for another variable to pop up. The UKMO has a habit of saying no to easterlies and i just hope it's not going to be the trendsetter again this time.

Overall though there is some decent support for the ECM evolution so lets hope the ensembles back this and that the UKMO modify their fax charts tonight towards the ECM operational run.

[Bobby]

I don't think we're any closer to knowing if a potent cold snap is on the way or not than we were 3-4 days ago. I expect it won't be until early next week before it's certain. If there's strong cross model agreement at +144 then we can start getting a bit excited.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Barb-

[Polar Continental]

I see the 12z models have a much colder feel this evening with northern blocking kicking in a fair bit earlier than the 06z runs.

Apart that is from the UKMO, which doesn’t like the cold at all, I am sure it will be eventually dragged kicking and screaming to Siberia very soon and be given hard labour.

The ECM begins to take shape post T120, and really gets its act together at T168 as the low begins to slip under the block, opening the door to Siberia.

The GFS is also good and takes a similar route to the ECM, but just a little later in the time frame, then some of the projected charts go off the scale of reality, if they come off, then a repeat of Jan 87 is on the cards.

[nick sussex]

I don't think we're any closer to knowing if a potent cold snap is on the way or not than we were 3-4 days ago. I expect it won't be until early next week before it's certain. If there's strong cross model agreement at +144 then we can start getting a bit excited.

The key is the evolution between 96hrs and 120hrs which normally wouldn't be a major problem for the models but its quite complicated because of how the Atlantic low interacts with any shortwaves near the UK. I would say though that we've seen a shift this evening towards the ECM apart from the UKMO, this is the fly in the ointment, however once the ECM starts becoming consistent with a pattern within 120hrs its rarely wrong and because of this theres a good chance the UKMO raw output will move towards it tomorrow morning.

[weather eater]

The ECM has the easterly progged to develop between the 6th and the 8th, so no pushed back easterly on this run.

[Frosty.]

Superb ECM 12z run, mild air barely gets a look in, just briefly into southern ireland and sw england @ T+120 hours but apart from that it's a cold/very cold continental flow with snow potential, hopefully the latest fax charts will go with either the gfs 12z or ecm 12z or a blend of both but please....not the ukmo sw'ly at T+144

[summer blizzard]

Well the UKMO is certainly on its own with its WSW flow, though on the other hand the GFS and ECWMF show two different setups so i think the UKMO could well be correct though i do favour a cold solution.

Also, GFS is keen to have a stalling front moving slowly north giving widespread snow on most runs, so something to watch for midweek.

[Bobby]

I think the ECM is pretty good. Not so spectacularly cold but snowier... a new possibility being picked up... snowy battlegrounds?

Before the raging easterly that is...

[Tom D]

I think the ECM is pretty good. Not so spectacularly cold but snowier... a new possibility being picked up... snowy battlegrounds?

Before the raging easterly that is...

I looked at the precip charts for the op GFS this evening and noticed a number of snow events for some areas next Tuesday and Wednesday, as bands moved in it was snow on the frontal edge.

I know the GFS precip charts are dire but they show potential snow events.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

Edited January 29, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Optimus Prime]

The GFS is also good and takes a similar route to the ECM, but just a little later in the time frame, then some of the projected charts go off the scale of reality, if they come off, then a repeat of Jan 87 is on the cards.

Mmm certainly nowhere near as cold as the January 1987 easterly. Ground temperatures would be higher and much modification then back than.

I still think the UKMO and a westerly type will be the eventual outcome. Looks more plausible then some of the hyped up rubbish churned out by the GFS ensembles ect.

[The PIT]

me thinks too much FI and deep FI watching. Lessons from the great beast of the east failure seem to have been forgotten. I'll stick with the northerly for now and see what happens over the weekend.

[MR EXTREMES]

Superb ECM 12z run, mild air barely gets a look in, just briefly into southern ireland and sw england @ T+120 hours but apart from that it's a cold/very cold continental flow with snow potential, hopefully the latest fax charts will go with either the gfs 12z or ecm 12z or a blend of both but please....not the ukmo sw'ly at T+144

i agree and this seems to be what the meto medium range forecast has been pointing towards for the last 3 days.

id bin the ukmo i think the others are more realistic.

[Optimus Prime]

me thinks too much FI and deep FI watching. Lessons from the great beast of the east failure seem to have been forgotten. I'll stick with the northerly for now and see what happens over the weekend.

Yeah good point.

We still need to remember we haven't had a decent easterly since 1991. Since then it's been failure after failure. The GFS in any situation outside the summer months seems to screw everything up. ECM is the most reliable but UKMO looks far more plausible to me.

Cold then less cold by the looks of things.