Model Output Discussion

[andymusic]

Cold is even further into FI now - dissapointing

date of 8th feb still showing - always has been around there - and that date continues to move closer and closer to us

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I can understand that many people in here are getting a little impatient but the pattern has to play itself out, by this I mean the Atlantic trough will have a go at removing the block but can't win but this means we have to wait till it weakens, in the meantime theres a chance that a colder se flow will be pulled nw and a battleground situation plays out, eventually the trough will disrupt with shortwave heading se'wards under the block this will help to support the very cold upper air backing westwards,I think in terms of your rough dates I'd go for that in terms of the very cold uppers arriving though i think theres a chance that we'll still see a sufficient cold surface flow before then. By the end of next week I would expect to see some fun and games developing especially towards the east and se before the Atlantic trough finds a life and gets lost!

Indeed Nick, i agree with that. I agree with the sufficient cold flow before then, any SE feed would be pretty darn cold.

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Hmmm the 12z GFS ensembles are very interesting indeed, a surprising amount actually go for a easterly airflow around 168hrs and probably as many as 30-40% take the mentioned fast route to cold. Whilst I happen to think we will need several bites of the cheery, that has interested me I must say!

I think the GFS 12z op run is fantastic in FI from around T+216 hours onwards with a bitter ENE'ly followed by a NE'ly then a N'ly followed by a NE'ly, if only the ukmo was onboard.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Frosty039

[kold weather]

I think it's a poor UKMO again and I'm a little nervous about some sort of renewed energy push in the jet, there are only so many bites at the cherry for a block to ridge West. ECM awaited with much interest.

Not much support for that sort of solution from the 12z GFS ensembles, though its not completely unsupported either, but no more then 3 runs I can see look like the UKMO, interestingly many more go for a good deal quicker evolution then the 12z GFS, indeed some look as fast as the quiker solutions from a few days ago now again!

[guitarnutter]

Oh and by the way, my award for the most extreme easterly EVER on any model probably in the history of net weather...goes to this ensemble member:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-1-324.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-0-324.png?12

Yep folks, thats -20C at 850hpa just a short distance from the SE!

Steve Murr just fainted, you beat him to it!

[cooling climate]

The Easterly was being shown in the t216 to 240 range a few runs back now its in

the t180 range by this time tomorrow it should be around the t168 mark.

I can't see where it is being put back.

The UKMO chart is not that bad considering it is right at the end of its range.

I am fully expecting to see another cracking run tonight from the ECM.

[John Snow]

Steve Murr just fainted, you beat him to it!

15 days ahead, might as well bin it, there has been so much flip flopping from the various charts about this easterly anything past 96hrs is deep FI tbh

No point getting excited over something 15 days ahead

[weather eater]

12z goes with the 06z, looks like the transformation to how we end up with easterly is over..

I honestly cannot see the Easterly Happening, we are no closer in time frame, its put further back all the time. It's just going round in circles. I expect the 12z at the end of the run to show mild conditions with no Easterly inversion.

Sorry Lewis I sometimes agree with you, but not this time, the fact is this easterly (other than on a couple of runs) has always been progged to kick in between the 6th and the 8th. Given that the GFS charts on wetterzentrale run at 6hr intervals out to 180hrs and then at 12hr intervals its obvious that we will have to sit through a lot of output before we get into the models high resolution let alone the nailed spell, in other words its not being put back it just takes time to get there. Obviously there’s something driving this evolution, because an easterly of some sort is being shown on all the GFS runs and most of the ECM and GEM runs. its not just going to jump forward several days to suit the more sceptical members of NW. It of course may still go the way of the pear but to deny it as a clear and obvious trend is to fly in the face of the patently obvious. I don’t think I’ve seen such a consistent long range trend in the models, ever.

[kold weather]

Steve Murr just fainted, you beat him to it!

I think that chart is just unreal, of course it won't happen but wow, just think about the end result if it did, I mean its slightly more potent then Jan 1987, insane ensemble run.

Neing more realisitic, probably 90% of the ensemble members bring in some sort of cold snap/spell, 50% bring in a fairly siginifcant cold spell and about 25% bring in a cold spell equal or more potent then Early Jan's cold spell.

[sandstorm2]

Steve Murr just fainted, you beat him to it!

Frost fair on the Thames if that verified, unfortunately it won't happen.

SS2

[Altostratus]

Hmmm the 12z GFS ensembles are very interesting indeed, a surprising amount actually go for a easterly airflow around 168hrs and probably as many as 30-40% take the mentioned fast route to cold. Whilst I happen to think we will need several bites of the cheery, that has interested me I must say!

Oh and by the way, my award for the most extreme easterly EVER on any model probably in the history of net weather...goes to this ensemble member:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-1-324.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-0-324.png?12

Yep folks, thats -20C at 850hpa just a short distance from the SE!

The ensembles are better than I was expecting to be honest. A lot of scatter as one would expect beyond T+120 however. With the mean below -5C throughout, a cold outlook is favoured at the moment. Just how cold, remains to be seen. It is interesting to note that the operational and control run follow a similar route with the cold being delayed a few days. Let's just hope the cold doesn't keep getting pushed back.

[Geordiesnow]

Sorry Lewis I sometimes agree with you, but not this time, the fact is this easterly (other than on a couple of runs) has always been progged to kick in between the 6th and the 8th. Given that the GFS charts on wetterzentrale run at 6hr intervals out to 180hrs and then at 12hr intervals its obvious that we will have to sit through a lot of output before we get into the models high resolution let alone the nailed spell, in other words its not being put back it just takes time to get there. Obviously there’s something driving this evolution, because an easterly of some sort is being shown on all the GFS runs and most of the ECM and GEM runs. its not just going to jump forward several days to suit the more sceptical members of NW. It of course may still go the way of the pear but to deny it as a clear and obvious trend is to fly in the face of the patently obvious. I don’t think I’ve seen such a consistent long range trend in the models, ever.

And yet, all that would mean very little if the Atlantic wins the battle and moves the block further eastwards.

I agree with Lewis, i am not too convinced any easterly will happen anytime soon, it has not got any closer to the reliable and the fact that when we get output like last nights ECM run(which people seems to forget that its similar to todays UKMO output) and todays runs from the UKMO, how can you get excited about an easterly in FI.

If its start moving towards the reliable then things might get more excited but until then, i'm not convinced.

[chionomaniac]

When looking at the 12Z UKMO run this evening it may appear to be not a good run, especially in the context of winters gone by. However we do not get to see the full picture until we run the NH charts from start to finish. If we then put this into context with the background teleconnective signals then it will only head in one direction. As I mentioned this morning the negative mean zonal winds will push any troughing further westwards. One can see this happening on the NH run - it is just that it doesn't go out far enough to show the end result. Look carefully though and one can see the path is opening for the Siberian/Scandi high to move westwards allowing the NE back door to the freezer to be left ajar.

Edited January 29, 2010 by chionomaniac

[Duane S.]

I can understand that many people in here are getting a little impatient but the pattern has to play itself out, by this I mean the Atlantic trough will have a go at removing the block but can't win but this means we have to wait till it weakens,

In one Nick!

I never bought that super quick evolution to an Easterly showing up a few days ago, there is just still too much energy oop North ATM. I have been saying for a while that it will get milder before it gets colder, this is almost unavoidable and some would do well to keep their hands off the panic buttons because I forsee a truckload of Stellar runs but also also plenty of awful ones coming up over the next 5 days. I can see the WAA shot coming up through the UK which will be the catylist to it all kicking off a couple of days later but that is going to be a week away at least. Not too shabby in the meantime though.

Edited January 29, 2010 by s4lancia

[weather eater]

And yet, all that would mean very little if the Atlantic wins the battle and moves the block further eastwards.

I agree with Lewis, i am not too convinced any easterly will happen anytime soon, it has not got any closer to the reliable and the fact that when we get output like last nights ECM run(which people seems to forget that its similar to todays UKMO output) and todays runs from the UKMO, how can you get excited about an easterly in FI.

If its start moving towards the reliable then things might get more excited but until then, i'm not convinced.

It could indeed get pushed back and I'm not getting excited Geordie, but I think as this is the model thread its fair to discuss what is patently a very clear trend at the moment. I have to say to you that I disagree about this being put back, I just think its a slow trend, the dates 6th to the 8th have been pretty clear for sometime now.

[The PIT]

Well the easterly gets pushed back deeper in deep FI so it maybe like the last programmed return and never really made it. Yet I feel the GFS is over doing the Atlantic a bit. However we're talking about deep fi so it could all disappear in the next few runs or stay where it is. Needs to get much closer to the more reliable time frame before it can be taken with more than a pinch of salt.

Anyway a cold weekend coming up which will help in making the January one of the coldest for a very long time.

[Duane S.]

12z goes with the 06z, looks like the transformation to how we end up with easterly is over..

I honestly cannot see the Easterly Happening, we are no closer in time frame, its put further back all the time. It's just going round in circles. I expect the 12z at the end of the run to show mild conditions with no Easterly inversion.

SFL, I don't know if you are partaking in some sort of reverse psychology thingy but for the life of me I cannot see where you get the notion that the Easterly is 'dead in the water'. You ask others to be objective/realistic etc but then post this

For me the one big trend in all of this is that (more often than not), even when the models 'go off on one', somehow we end up with a continental feed of the UK. That tells me what is driving this evolution is not the Atlantic, a VERY big plus point for us.

Also, I see some saying the Easterly is being constantly put back. 1) Is it? 2) A common trait with Easterlies is for them to disappear off the radar midterm after being previously forecast in FI for a few days, before re-emerging around +120, +144.

[in the vale]

Is there a model thread that deals only out to T60? (Rhetorical - I know there isn't, I looked...) It looks like we may have an interesting weekend ahead that is right in front of our noses and it is being completely ignored! I would like to hear experienced folk share their views on this timeframe so I can learn more about UK weather as it happens (almost) rather than each FI run being dissected and argued over. FI may or may not happen and by the time we get there today's debates will be forgotten. There is interesting weather happening above our heads and the trees are clearly obscuring the wood - as it were....

[D KARLSON]

As there is no undercutting to initiate this now long overdue cold spell, maybe like tha last cold spell we need a small high pressure cell to drift up from the souwest join the main high and help it ridge westwards , this does seem like the most likely scenario at present

[thegreat316]

Is there a model thread that deals only out to T60? (Rhetorical - I know there isn't, I looked...) It looks like we may have an interesting weekend ahead that is right in front of our noses and it is being completely ignored! I would like to hear experienced folk share their views on this timeframe so I can learn more about UK weather as it happens (almost) rather than each FI run being dissected and argued over. FI may or may not happen and by the time we get there today's debates will be forgotten. There is interesting weather happening above our heads and the trees are clearly obscuring the wood - as it were....

The best place for that would be the regional threads. obvouisly a northerly only excites some parts of the country, if its being ignored in here it wont be in your regional thread.

Personally i like the disscusion of models outside the reliable timeframe. Ecm rolling out, cant see it being as good as the 0z after the GFS and METO in the 144- timeframe. though after +144 i think it will be like the GFS

[Eugene]

http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-144.png

Nice GEM tonight, i notice quite alot of similar runs on the ensembles, the GFS 12Z OP being one of the warmest solutions mid to late next week.

Ensembles showing a prolonged cold spell, astonishing all the negativity when its cold out now and looks like staying cold be with the odd near average day for the foreseeable future.

I haven't recorded double figures in what seems an eternity which is the norm for winter in our mild maritime climate.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Eugene

[Iceberg]

I think a good ECM coming out at 120Z, much better energy distribution to lead to cold air sooner than the GFS 12Z.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Much better ECM at t144

[Iceberg]

What we have at 168 is a potential major snow producer on the ECM...

[Nick F]

Very good signal from the ECM op so far, negatively tilted Atlantic trough forced to disrupt due to the expanding block to the N and NE.

As Iceberg says, those lows sliding in from the SW could be a big snow-maker as winds pick up from the E dragging in colder cP air