South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Nights King]

looking at the models and the model thread, looks like it's just gunna be another damp squib for us

I don't think it will be a damp squib more like a couple of ****** cold wet days!

It doesnt even look good for high ground in our region!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

On the plus side, Pompey whipped S'oton, so not a bad day all round

[Schmac]

I don't think it will be a damp squib more like a couple of ****** cold wet days!

It doesnt even look good for high ground in our region!

Cold, wet days...

Is the British Summer upon us already??...

That's the kind of weather I expect when I'm planning a BBQ!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

It has been a pretty cold week, I think my max up here all week was about 2.3C, today hasn't been above freezing.

You couldn't make up mild air coming from the north of all places.

[fromey]

looks like we r back to chasing the really cold weather which is out past 144hrs, some mentioned a bitter end to feb but thats 14 days away!!

[slb97]

On the plus side, Pompey whipped S'oton, so not a bad day all round

I agree with you there! Brilliant day!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I agree with you there! Brilliant day!

I went to uni there so still follow them when needed... mostly when playing Scumhampton

On a weather note, BBC forecast just showed snow for the north of our area on Monday and almost everywhere in our area for Tuesday...

[MartUK]

Evening all....Was the snow for all SWestern area's Matt

[slb97]

Really? That surprises me as the met office advisory for our area was removed today and the model thread discussion theme at the moment tends to be wintry from the midlands up and rain/sleet for the south. I'm on the coast though so not expecting snow; maybe some sleet if we're lucky. Let's hope for some good surprises then!

[MartUK]

Evening all......Was the snow forecast for all area's in the SW Matt

Sorry for the double post......error came up when i posted the last one

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Evening,

Seemed to be snow all the way down and even out to sea on the graphics, but then was showing 8c for Plymouth.

So I guess that means it could go either way

Best not be rain, because that would suck.

As for the MO thread... I am of the opinion people in there know only how to look at a chart, rather than the ability to 'forecast' as the moods change with every run.

[MartUK]

Yes know what you mean i've been trying to following the MO Thread, It's like a giant roller coaster in that forum and sometimes makes some good reading.

Like you said before Matt it will be nice to see one more whiteout before the winter is over

Then we can all look forward to the warmer temps

[SteveB]

It looks like a unsettled week coming up, cool to cold at times with night frosts towards the middle and end of the week.

What falls from the sky is anyone's guess, but I think it will mostly be rain with the odd surprise.

[Ian Fergusson]

It looks like a unsettled week coming up, cool to cold at times with night frosts towards the middle and end of the week.

What falls from the sky is anyone's guess, but I think it will mostly be rain with the odd surprise.

Yes, essentially a rain / sleet set-up for pretty much all the West/SW region but we're expecting the transition to snow (in a meaningful as opposed to a fleeting sense) to start around Wilts eastwards in the Tues event and again Wed.

Parts of SE will be fun and games but even 25-km differences in recent modelling on frontal position have made critical changes in the associated snow risk for any one area. Hence the UKMO keeping a 'sensible hat' on for warnings (versus the broader advisories already in force) until we see even better sub-regional continuity.

Snow signal remains noisy all the way into the 15 day UKMO prog for much of the UK but frankly it's the interesting prospects on the gale /severe gale issue that most grabs my attention for us, not snow, with the period I'd mentioned a few days back (21/22nd -ish looking especially lively but with very low confidence on details.

[SteveB]

Yes, essentially a rain / sleet set-up for pretty much all the West/SW region but we're expecting the transition to snow (in a meaningful as opposed to a fleeting sense) to start around Wilts eastwards in the Tues event and again Wed.

Parts of SE will be fun and games but even 25-km differences in recent modelling on frontal position have made critical changes in the associated snow risk for any one area. Hence the UKMO keeping a 'sensible hat' on for warnings (versus the broader advisories already in force) until we see even better sub-regional continuity.

Snow signal remains noisy all the way into the 15 day UKMO prog for much of the UK but frankly it's the interesting prospects on the gale /severe gale issue that most grabs my attention for us, not snow, with the period I'd mentioned a few days back (21/22nd -ish looking especially lively but with very low confidence on details.

Gales you say, not a big fan of wind events purely for the structral damage they can cause to property.

Do you have any more detail on this wind event Ian?

[Nights King]

Yes, essentially a rain / sleet set-up for pretty much all the West/SW region but we're expecting the transition to snow (in a meaningful as opposed to a fleeting sense) to start around Wilts eastwards in the Tues event and again Wed.

Parts of SE will be fun and games but even 25-km differences in recent modelling on frontal position have made critical changes in the associated snow risk for any one area. Hence the UKMO keeping a 'sensible hat' on for warnings (versus the broader advisories already in force) until we see even better sub-regional continuity.

Snow signal remains noisy all the way into the 15 day UKMO prog for much of the UK but frankly it's the interesting prospects on the gale /severe gale issue that most grabs my attention for us, not snow, with the period I'd mentioned a few days back (21/22nd -ish looking especially lively but with very low confidence on details.

So Ian do you see any transition to snow occuring on high ground possible in west country or is it really going to be a no chancer for us in west?

We had some light snow in the night which was nice to see although it turned to rain as I drove into wells for a few drinks.

As for wind it just makes work a nightmare and then i have a big clear up after.

Edited February 14, 2010 by mullender83

[dancing daisy]

Boo! Nowt to say

[robnor1]

Time for those Winter is over posts at least for lowland parts of this neck of the woods.

The cold & snow hopecasters in the Model output will have a hard job justifying their optimism this week but this will quickly be redefined to N Scotland to suit their own purposes i am sure.

[Ian Fergusson]

Time for those Winter is over posts at least for lowland parts of this neck of the woods.

The cold & snow hopecasters in the Model output will have a hard job justifying their optimism this week but this will quickly be redefined to N Scotland to suit their own purposes i am sure.

Hilarious!

The SE snow threat is real, for sure (i.e., the likes of northern Home Counties) on Tues-Wed but it's a real mess in terms of the forecast accuracy for snow/wet stuff discrimination.

Yes, the snow threat retreats northwards later in the 10-15 day forecast but........

WHO CARES?

If that's the end of the snow risk for much of southern British Isles, then fine.

Bring on Spring......

Oh come on..... imagine:

The warmth; the birds; the blossom; the earlier daylight; the towering Cu / Cb's / SFERIC's on the map and all the other fab things weatherwise it offers.

Plus the new F1 season.

Plus ditching the ice-scraper.

Plus Beer Gardens.

And my cats going (even more) beserk.

Yes, the Model Thread is sometimes guilty of that very worst non-scientific principle, as per forums dealing with ghosts, UFO's, Loch Ness Monsters, Jedward For Number One etc......

( = Wishful Thinking Isn't Peer Reviewed; And Neither is The Bible).

Edited February 14, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[dancing daisy]

Ian, have you been drinking? Come over to the lounge area and talk about stuff that isn't weather. A mod introduced me!

It is far more interesting than weather.

Edit> actually don't. I was the last person to post in banter this morning.

Edited February 14, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Nights King]

Time for those Winter is over posts at least for lowland parts of this neck of the woods.

The cold & snow hopecasters in the Model output will have a hard job justifying their optimism this week but this will quickly be redefined to N Scotland to suit their own purposes i am sure.

haha Snow can still fall to the end of march for lowland england easily and I do enjoy the extra convective activity in cool/cold snaps into march which bring some interesting showers as the strengh of the sun starts to increase.

One of the worst snow days i have ever seen was in the first week of april although that was generally over 100m ground event. Around 99/00 year? although i cannot remember the exact year it turned from rain to snow at 300m around 6/7 am and then the line just dropped as the day went on until almost at sea level by the eveningl.

[MP-R]

haha Snow can still fall to the end of march for lowland england easily and I do enjoy the extra convective activity in cool/cold snaps into march which bring some interesting showers as the strengh of the sun starts to increase.

One of the worst snow days i have ever seen was in the first week of april although that was generally over 100m ground event. Around 99/00 year? although i cannot remember the exact year it turned from rain to snow at 300m around 6/7 am and then the line just dropped as the day went on until almost at sea level by the eveningl.

You might be thinking of 14th April 1999 - the one decent snow day of the year after an appalling winter. Woke up to 6cm on the ground and there was still 10cm on the Mendips by midday the following day.

[Nights King]

You might be thinking of 14th April 1999 - the one decent snow day of the year after an appalling winter. Woke up to 6cm on the ground and there was still 10cm on the Mendips by midday the following day.

Yes it was very impressive! the snow drifts on the sides of roads and fields hung around until end of april and it was funny because a few days later it was up to around 15c and i was jumping through drifts with short and t-shirt.

current temperature is -1.1c

Edited February 14, 2010 by mullender83

[Rich_Clements]

A day trip to Torquay has reminded me what Spring is like! glorious sunshine 8 degrees, positively tropical.

Bring on spring

[Schmac]

Yep, it got pretty mild here too today...

Top temp just after midday was 10°c!!...

Looks like our snow event is going to be a wind & rain event!...

Oh well...