South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[marclt]

What is the weather going to be like in Swindon next week???

Thanks!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

What I don't understand is, how does a low forming just SE of Greenland have any milder air in it? Its not like its coming up from the Azores...

Anyway, -0.2C at the moment, but rather pleasant out of the wind and in the sun. Clouds are building to the NE though.

[Iceberg]

If we take Wiltshire as an average kind of SW place, the 06Z from GFS averages 850s at -4 to -5 from Tuesday evening onwards.

This really shows how marginal it will be for our area, anything is really possible, the 06Z is a much drier run as it stalls the LP over northern England, this is however unlikely....

Taking it much longer range the models are NOT now showing a warm up until March, February is shown to be unsettled and cold until the end of the month increasingly on the longer range ensembles, ECM EPS this morning inparticular is keen to keep the possibility of further cold going.

Still way up in the air atm.

ps the LP drags some of the milder air that has circulated over the top of the HP

[03jtrickey]

There is now an advisory out for 5-10cm snow on Tuesday!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Iceberg, thanks for the reasoning, should it not cooled by the time it gets up there and then swings down over Norway and SW to us? (If it does indeed go that way)

[Iceberg]

Yes and Yes.

Here's 3 pics (from GFS due to ease of getting).

The very large area of 850's at around 0 to -2 between Scotland and Iceland can be seen in 1

2 shows how this gets squeezed and 850's start to drop.

Picture 3 shows that by the time it gets to us, none of the really mild 0 to -2 850's are left and your generally looking at a warm sector of -2 to -4.

This quickly(relatively) goes over us.

Essentially once the warm sector looses it's temperature differential with the cold sector coming down behind, LP development stops and it starts to decay.

The reason why this is so difficult to forecast is that how quickly this occurs(as this effects the depth of the LP and so it's steering ability).

Also how much and how mild the air will be to start with and how cold the air is on the cold front.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Yes and Yes.

Here's 3 pics (from GFS due to ease of getting).

The very large area of 850's at around 0 to -2 between Scotland and Iceland can be seen in 1

2 shows how this gets squeezed and 850's start to drop.

Picture 3 shows that by the time it gets to us, none of the really mild 0 to -2 850's are left and your generally looking at a warm sector of -2 to -4.

This quickly(relatively) goes over us.

Essentially once the warm sector looses it's temperature differential with the cold sector coming down behind, LP development stops and it starts to decay.

The reason why this is so difficult to forecast is that how quickly this occurs(as this effects the depth of the LP and so it's steering ability).

Also how much and how mild the air will be to start with and how cold the air is on the cold front.

Thanks for that!

Fingers crossed then :unsure:

[SteveB]

Anything looks like it can happen next week.

Fingers crossed.

This morning we had the thinest covering of snow I have ever seen. The only reason I new it had snowed is because I could see snow flakes that had frozen to the car.

[dancing daisy]

I am on holiday!

The network went down at work, as this is my planning time and I basically cannot do it I was told I could go home early. So on will go the loud music and out will come the hoover, nothing like being paid to do your own housework. :unsure:

Snow next week then? Is this going to be Tuesday? Planning lunch in Bristol next week and a bit of shopping so I want to avoid the snow if at all possible. Which day will be my best shot do you think guys?

[textmum]

There is now an advisory out for 5-10cm snow on Tuesday!

Please, please let us have some!!

Edited February 12, 2010 by textmum

[SteveB]

I am on holiday!

The network went down at work, as this is my planning time and I basically cannot do it I was told I could go home early. So on will go the loud music and out will come the hoover, nothing like being paid to do your own housework.

Snow next week then? Is this going to be Tuesday? Planning lunch in Bristol next week and a bit of shopping so I want to avoid the snow if at all possible. Which day will be my best shot do you think guys?

I don't think at this moment in time it is possible to say whether its going to rain or snow next week. The only thing that is sure is it is going to be an unsettled week, so were ever your going best to take a brolley.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

It won't snow.

(Does reverse pyschology work with the weather?)

It's officially the weekend now! (well, its not, but can be!)

[dancing daisy]

I don't think at this moment in time it is possible to say whether its going to rain or snow next week. The only thing that is sure is it is going to be an unsettled week, so were ever your going best to take a brolley.

Cheers Steve.

I have the hugest grin on my face and it just won't budge, been like it since 6.15am. I think my kids were quite scared this morning. :unsure:

Matt, it is officially the weekend. I have just decreed it, so it must be... lol

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Cheers Steve.

I have the hugest grin on my face and it just won't budge, been like it since 6.15am. I think my kids were quite scared this morning.

Matt, it is officially the weekend. I have just decreed it, so it must be... lol

Suits me. Cider?

I attempted to go and sit in the sun earier, but forgot it was stil Feb and therefore rather chilly. Still, only a month or so and it could be up to 20C .... oh please!

[dancing daisy]

I know it is wrong to have favourites but I think you are my fave poster. You talk about summer, heat and cider, and these are a few of my favourite things!

I just opened the fridge to get the milk out and the wine yelled my name. Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

Ahhh, I am derailing this thread yet again. Ooops! I had better go and do something useful.

Edited February 12, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Nights King]

There is now an advisory out for 5-10cm snow on Tuesday!

I am going to get very bitter towards next week as this event unfolds....

No advisory for the west country just south west midlands really.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I know it is wrong to have favourites but I think you are my fave poster. You talk about summer, heat and cider, and these are a few of my favourite things!

I just opened the fridge to get the milk out and the wine yelled my name. Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

Ahhh, I am derailing this thread yet again. Ooops! I had better go and do something useful.

I think your milk might be off if its making you hear the wine calling your name....

Don't get me wrong, I love the cold but this winter has just been a little OTT for our little country. But I guess it beats wet weather any time of the year.

[kent]

With all this uncertainty at the mo. I say now bring on the spring the sooner the better. Yes I am a snow lover and would love to have seen more than the 1 cm yielded so far this winter but enough is enough I despair of seeing any more in my location for whats left of this winter. Of course it goes without saying that you cant have snow without the cold but when I read some posters that say, "Oh well at least it will be cold" suggests to me of utter madness. That to me is like whilst holidaying in Cornwall eating one of their delicious cornish ice cream without that scrumptious dollop of clotted cream on the top.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Surely far healthier to have a bowl of mussels, with a glass of chilled wine and someone lovely to share with...

I suppose the 12z is out now.... (yes, to make it on topic)

[dogs32]

yes like Jame's as mentioned the Met going for a possibility of heavy snow for Swindon and Glos Tues....

[7andY]

I am on holiday!

The network went down at work, as this is my planning time and I basically cannot do it I was told I could go home early. So on will go the loud music and out will come the hoover, nothing like being paid to do your own housework.

Snow next week then? Is this going to be Tuesday? Planning lunch in Bristol next week and a bit of shopping so I want to avoid the snow if at all possible. Which day will be my best shot do you think guys?

...if you have your network go down, it is designed wrong!!! My school network has NEVER gone down in over ten years!!! except for power cuts, of course!!!

7&Y

[dancing daisy]

...if you have your network go down, it is designed wrong!!! My school network has NEVER gone down in over ten years!!! except for power cuts, of course!!!

7&Y

We are having an upgrade as the server is too slow, it runs approx 150 computers and is very old! SCC network/intranet thingumy has gone down a few times in the last couple of weeks, which is a right pain as well.

Which school are you at? I used to go to Winston Road, many moons ago.

[MartUK]

Evening Daisy the day couldn't have ended better for you Enjoy your holiday..wish i could get sent home when our server goes down lol

[dancing daisy]

Evening Daisy the day couldn't have ended better for you Enjoy your holiday..wish i could get sent home when our server goes down lol

Evening Cashy!

Gosh it is quiet on here tonight isn't it. I am having a quiet one as have a hectic day tomorrow, so I was hoping for some internet entertainment.

Oh yes weather...dark and cold.

[MartUK]

Yes it's very quiet on here, nothing much happening. Have you got many plans for your week off?