South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[03jtrickey]

Ian, do you think snow will feature much in next week's forecast? It seems a very messy picture at the moment.

[dancing daisy]

High-res modelling has a reasonable signal for uplands of B&NES and adjacent districts even by around 0400hrs.... but that's merely for the snow signal, NOT offering any hint on actual accumulations. I'm seriously not anticpating much from this - a dusting for most; maybe a cm or so in certain areas... but hey, it's a talking point... worth watching, for sure.

Cheeky moo. And just for that I hope you get a bucketload of the poxy white stuff.

Eleven AM indeed!! Pah!! (Mind you I finish work just afterwards, so can't complain) x

You can go off some people you know!

Sweet dreams! X

[Ian Fergusson]

Ian, do you think snow will feature much in next week's forecast? It seems a very messy picture at the moment.

Maybe. I'm still not inclined to be bullish yet until we're into range of the NAE for Monday-Tuesday's developments. But a week of potential? Yes, perhaps - albeit I'm actually more inclined to look later towards the 21st and that period (and not solely as I 'celebrate' another year of increasing greyness) when our med-range guys are starting to hone some focus on possible developments more widely and aside from a northern snow bias......

Right, I'm off to bed; g'night folks and hope ( = PRAY in my bloody profession) some of our forecast for tomorrow morning becomes reality!!!!

Eeek.

[03jtrickey]

Thanks Ian, good night and hopefully the forecast goes according to plan!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I'm working from home tomorrow, tough life, so perhaps 10am for me.

Won't be long and it'll be light by the time we get in at the weekends!

[Nights King]

I'm working from home tomorrow, tough life, so perhaps 10am for me.

Won't be long and it'll be light by the time we get in at the weekends!

Yes it is light as I start out of work but dark when i get home although that all depends on if it is clear or not also.

still very dark outside just to let you know.

[03jtrickey]

I'll be up at 735am before 6th form tomorrow morning... party tomorrow night though, then it's half term...

[dancing daisy]

Woo hoo! Someone else on the party bus!

Snow zoo aside, I REALLY want sunshine and warmth now. I am only a winter person for the first couple of weeks and then I miss going out without layers on and grow to hate my scarves. Plus, in my job, it feels as if I have no life once I have done my prep for the next day as it's too cold and dark to go anywhere.

Moan over.

[MartUK]

Roll on the warmer weather really want to get the Kayak out and the bike

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Yes it is light as I start out of work but dark when i get home although that all depends on if it is clear or not also.

still very dark outside just to let you know.

Yes, dark here also... mores a pity.

No surfing Cashy?

[kent]

No ones got a clue as to how the weather is going to pan out for the near future. However one thing is certain my gas and electricity bills are due to be read and I know they are going to be way out in FI.

[MartUK]

No Matt, never tried to be honest always wanted to when i was in my teens. Polzeath and Daymar with the Kayak,only 10-15 drive for me. Normally go down every evening when its warmer

[Jayfromcardiff]

I think we all may see a dusting tonight, fingers crossed.

[Bristawl Si]

I like Ian's posts; he always seems to leave a 'hint' or two - towards end of next week then....hmmm!

[MartUK]

How accurate are these radars ie; Netweather and Raintoday. Do they all use info from the Met Office.

[dancing daisy]

I like Ian's posts; he always seems to leave a 'hint' or two - towards end of next week then....hmmm!

He's just a big tease!

Ummm, possible snow then when I go back to school. Do you think it's safe for me to book a few days in the Canaries for the first few days we are supposed to be back at school? It's cheaper then.

Right I had better prepare for the one long party day tomorrow. End of term hysteria will set into the staffroom by 8am and I will get nothing done, apart from eat breakfast cake.

Night all. X

[littlemissy]

Oh yes ,Dancing Daisy, laying in bed with a hot cup of coffee watching the bbc breakfast news ,knowing you don't have to get up just yet .................. bliss

I'm looking forward to being able to look out the window and watch the birds feed in the garden and just enjoy a different pace of life for a bit.

[Bristawl Si]

He's just a big tease!

Ummm, possible snow then when I go back to school. Do you think it's safe for me to book a few days in the Canaries for the first few days we are supposed to be back at school? It's cheaper then.

Right I had better prepare for the one long party day tomorrow. End of term hysteria will set into the staffroom by 8am and I will get nothing done, apart from eat breakfast cake.

Night all. X

What a shindig it must be working in the 'protected' sector - erm, i mean public sector!

[MartUK]

Night D Daisy have a good day tomorrow

[dancing daisy]

Oh yes ,Dancing Daisy, laying in bed with a hot cup of coffee watching the bbc breakfast news ,knowing you don't have to get up just yet .................. bliss

I'm looking forward to being able to look out the window and watch the birds feed in the garden and just enjoy a different pace of life for a bit.

Breakfast news! Blimey you are planning on getting up early! We will keep this forum busy in the daytime next week littlemissy.

What a shindig it must be working in the 'protected' sector - erm, i mean public sector!

It truly is a tough life!

Night night Cashy, have a lovely day too.

Edited February 11, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Iceberg]

Not Much time, but the general trend for next week is a low coming down from the north Tuesday, with a leading front/warm sector monday evening, this then comes down the western side of the UK and then hangs around in some form or another until the weekend...

Pressure ensembles for dorset show presure down to 980-990 about the 17th which seems realistic.

Low pressure = lots of precipitation so unlike this week, next week won't suffer from that !, however it will ALWAYS be marginal next week, with both upper and lower temps and thicknesses for the SW.

The Weather will certaintly be a major news story next week as places in the UK really do get dumped on big time. The question is will we ?

Too early to say as the set up is probably the most volatile you can get.

The LP will likely have a largish warm sector -2 to -3 850 temps with higher DP's of 2 or 3, we will get rain from this, definately at some point. The timing and extent of the warm sector depends on the depth, location and shape of the LP, (Yesterdays 12Z ECM as worse case scenario, but it has not repeated that in the 00z).

So a band of mainly rain Monday evening, maybe some snow at the start over high ground, turning to rain though, maybe some snow on it's trailing edge Tuesday monday again over high ground. Essentially don't except anything from this through as I don't believe it will actively settle.

As we move though Tue.Wed.Thur further bands rotate around the LP coming in from the north, these will give progressively lower thicknesses.

So snow more and more likely from tuesday Lunchtime over high ground with the potential of the snow line moving down. This is not to say that lowland areas will get snow, its too early to tell, just that the snowline will move down elevation wise and the possibility increases.

The low has various pockets of warmer and colder air mixed in, as the week goes on, the warmer air is mixed out, the low gets flabbier and the precip less pronounced.

Beyond this, this cold might hang around gives the possibility of morerain, sleet, snow for the south as the southern Jet stream brings lows near to the south.

[Rich_Clements]

Found we had a dusting this morning

[Snowkissed]

Not Much time, but the general trend for next week is a low coming down from the north Tuesday, with a leading front/warm sector monday evening, this then comes down the western side of the UK and then hangs around in some form or another until the weekend...

Pressure ensembles for dorset show presure down to 980-990 about the 17th which seems realistic.

Low pressure = lots of precipitation so unlike this week, next week won't suffer from that !, however it will ALWAYS be marginal next week, with both upper and lower temps and thicknesses for the SW.

The Weather will certaintly be a major news story next week as places in the UK really do get dumped on big time. The question is will we ?

Too early to say as the set up is probably the most volatile you can get.

The LP will likely have a largish warm sector -2 to -3 850 temps with higher DP's of 2 or 3, we will get rain from this, definately at some point. The timing and extent of the warm sector depends on the depth, location and shape of the LP, (Yesterdays 12Z ECM as worse case scenario, but it has not repeated that in the 00z).

So a band of mainly rain Monday evening, maybe some snow at the start over high ground, turning to rain though, maybe some snow on it's trailing edge Tuesday monday again over high ground. Essentially don't except anything from this through as I don't believe it will actively settle.

As we move though Tue.Wed.Thur further bands rotate around the LP coming in from the north, these will give progressively lower thicknesses.

So snow more and more likely from tuesday Lunchtime over high ground with the potential of the snow line moving down. This is not to say that lowland areas will get snow, its too early to tell, just that the snowline will move down elevation wise and the possibility increases.

The low has various pockets of warmer and colder air mixed in, as the week goes on, the warmer air is mixed out, the low gets flabbier and the precip less pronounced.

Beyond this, this cold might hang around gives the possibility of morerain, sleet, snow for the south as the southern Jet stream brings lows near to the south.

Thank you for a very grounded and well informed forecast.

[Nights King]

Not Much time, but the general trend for next week is a low coming down from the north Tuesday, with a leading front/warm sector monday evening, this then comes down the western side of the UK and then hangs around in some form or another until the weekend...

Pressure ensembles for dorset show presure down to 980-990 about the 17th which seems realistic.

Low pressure = lots of precipitation so unlike this week, next week won't suffer from that !, however it will ALWAYS be marginal next week, with both upper and lower temps and thicknesses for the SW.

The Weather will certaintly be a major news story next week as places in the UK really do get dumped on big time. The question is will we ?

Too early to say as the set up is probably the most volatile you can get.

The LP will likely have a largish warm sector -2 to -3 850 temps with higher DP's of 2 or 3, we will get rain from this, definately at some point. The timing and extent of the warm sector depends on the depth, location and shape of the LP, (Yesterdays 12Z ECM as worse case scenario, but it has not repeated that in the 00z).

So a band of mainly rain Monday evening, maybe some snow at the start over high ground, turning to rain though, maybe some snow on it's trailing edge Tuesday monday again over high ground. Essentially don't except anything from this through as I don't believe it will actively settle.

As we move though Tue.Wed.Thur further bands rotate around the LP coming in from the north, these will give progressively lower thicknesses.

So snow more and more likely from tuesday Lunchtime over high ground with the potential of the snow line moving down. This is not to say that lowland areas will get snow, its too early to tell, just that the snowline will move down elevation wise and the possibility increases.

The low has various pockets of warmer and colder air mixed in, as the week goes on, the warmer air is mixed out, the low gets flabbier and the precip less pronounced.

Beyond this, this cold might hang around gives the possibility of morerain, sleet, snow for the south as the southern Jet stream brings lows near to the south.

Great round up I think we shall have to wait to sunday to get a real picture of snow chances however it does look like a wet event be it snow or rain so chances of it laying would be remote i would say.

Still a chance though after all last feb saw marginal situation turn in our favour and a snow fest.

We may also get a few surprises to come over night as temps dip slightly...

Edited February 12, 2010 by mullender83

[robnor1]

Come on Spring the last week has been a non event for snow lovers in the S & SW E and next week too.

Cold and wet how crap is that.