South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[snowking]

According to a woman I spoke to tonight, it will snow here on Thursday. I do believe her because she is a psychic so it must be true...

Weirdest evening ever!

I had better say good bye to my plans for a snow zoo until 2011 then.

I wouldn't be so quick to put those plans just to bed yet

The over-riding teleconnection and ensemble signals still suggest the jet stream being very close to the southern half of the UK. This is likely to cause low pressure systems to be very close to the southern half of the UK, increasing the risk of fronts hitting the cold air and turning to snow

The other thing to remind people of is feb 2003 and indeed feb 2005 - as we move further into february the solar strength begins to increase, and this increases the potential for convective formations overland (so the potential for snow showers to form inland just about anywhere) under unstable (low pressure) conditions

I remember february 05 back in essex we had 17 consecutive days with snowfall - and 3 occasions of falls greater than 5cms (the point at which things seem to warrant a 'severe' weather event)

I've seen the signal for the upcoming pattern to occur for some months, and i've yet to see much that changes my belief in this setup in terms of the ensemble modelling or the global teleconnection signals

Kind Regards

SK

[dancing daisy]

Perhaps she was a 'psychic' weathergeek then.

George the giraffe may live then in 2010!

Cheers Kris.

[Mark Parsons]

hi mate,

no I love snow but I cant really afford any loss of work day's due to snow cover.

Though if it snow's I will enjoy it.

Yeah I know the feeling mate this winter has nearly bankrupt me, i work outside as a builder, if it aint been peeing with rain it has been frozen up, and to make it worse in this part of Dorset we have hardly had the snow with this cold, what a waste of cold and now i'm broke!!!!!

[Nights King]

A chilly day here today at work!

Feels abit more seasonal than yesterday anyway.

[dancing daisy]

A chilly day here today at work!

Feels abit more seasonal than yesterday anyway.

It is a beautiful day here, albeit quite chilly. The sun is shining and it is definitely a day for playing, not sat in front of a laptop with a pile of work to do.

Edited February 6, 2010 by dancing daisy

[egret]

I wouldn't be so quick to put those plans just to bed yet

The over-riding teleconnection and ensemble signals still suggest the jet stream being very close to the southern half of the UK. This is likely to cause low pressure systems to be very close to the southern half of the UK, increasing the risk of fronts hitting the cold air and turning to snow

The other thing to remind people of is feb 2003 and indeed feb 2005 - as we move further into february the solar strength begins to increase, and this increases the potential for convective formations overland (so the potential for snow showers to form inland just about anywhere) under unstable (low pressure) conditions

I remember february 05 back in essex we had 17 consecutive days with snowfall - and 3 occasions of falls greater than 5cms (the point at which things seem to warrant a 'severe' weather event)

I've seen the signal for the upcoming pattern to occur for some months, and i've yet to see much that changes my belief in this setup in terms of the ensemble modelling or the global teleconnection signals

Kind Regards

SK

Does anyone have the records for the late 70s ? I seem to recall severe cold and deep snow in February (perhaps a week or so later than this) We were camping near Reading with thick snow and temperatures so low that we had to warm the gas cylinder in the car to get any gas to come out (that might have been late February in 1977 ) and was it the same time of year in 1978 that there was epic snowfall in SW?

[Nights King]

It is a beautiful day here, albeit quite chilly. The sun is shining and it is definitely a day for playing, not sat in front of a laptop with a pile of work to do.

Blimey you are lucky! sun?! what is that?

Wall to wall thick grey cloud here with hill fog at home.

[dancing daisy]

Blimey you are lucky! sun?! what is that?

Wall to wall thick grey cloud here with hill fog at home.

I tempted fate then...it is starting to become quite overcast now.

I love this site, it is far more fun than planning data handling for numeracy next week. I might get the children to do a weather related graph. The only thing is; should it be based on hours of sunshine, mm's of rainfall or cms of snow?

[Nights King]

I tempted fate then...it is starting to become quite overcast now.

I love this site, it is far more fun than planning data handling for numeracy next week. I might get the children to do a weather related graph. The only thing is; should it be based on hours of sunshine, mm's of rainfall or cms of snow?

A safer bet would be to get them to graph the temperature as that will always be there!

Just looked at forecast and it says 8/9c for this region but most areas cannot even make 5c today!

[David-kig]

A safer bet would be to get them to graph the temperature as that will always be there!

Just looked at forecast and it says 8/9c for this region but most areas cannot even make 5c today!

temps will still rise before 3pm though.

[dancing daisy]

A safer bet would be to get them to graph the temperature as that will always be there!

Just looked at forecast and it says 8/9c for this region but most areas cannot even make 5c today!

I might just get them to count the arguments on the model output thread. My low ability can do a nice little pictogram of happy/sad/angry faces, my middles can draw a bar graph, amount of people/actual forecast and my high ability can do the mean, median, mode and range and then work out the probability of snow, taking into account bias through wishful thinking rather than scientific analysis!

Maths planning. Done!

Any ideas for poetry in Literacy?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Afternoon all!

The sun is out! Whats with that?! Only just mind you.

Isn't poetry literacy? Go for Daffodils. Least it's seasonal

[dancing daisy]

I am supposed to be teaching Christina Rossetti, but all I can remember about her from my english degree is that her poems were a tad on the naughty side. So I don't think I can teach my kids 'Goblin market.'

A bit of Wordsworth is far more apt Matt.

[kent]

Teach em this poem. An ode to the weatherman. In my dying embers I have many regrets. When I am right no one remembers. When I am wrong no one forgets. lol.

[Tattooed Fox]

Can anyone tell me please as I am a new learner? As the cold snap is coming from an Easterly and I have read it is moving more southerly what does that mean in terms of SW being in line for very cold weather and snow. I have read and understood that the snow amount is not possible to forecast until hours before it happens though , but I would be interested to know as I did go out and get extra food before the last lot of snow fell as we were unable to get out for a few days, but after the snow started to thaw the supermarkets were out of the basics (because people were not prepared or did hear in time). as I followed what everyone was saying on here I was prepared.

[dogs32]

Latest from the Met Outlook

UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Feb 2010 to Saturday 20 Feb 2010:

Rather cold or cold on Thursday and Friday with a mixture of bright spells and scattered sleet and snow showers, mainly in the north and east. Strong winds are also expected around some exposed eastern and southern coasts at times. The driest and brightest weather is expected in the northwest for much of the period. Overnight, frost is likely in most places, with locally severe frost likely inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with some snow or snow showers at times, particularly in eastern and some central areas, which may give some accumulations in places. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

Updated: 1201 on Sat 6 Feb 2010

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Can anyone tell me please as I am a new learner? As the cold snap is coming from an Easterly and I have read it is moving more southerly what does that mean in terms of SW being in line for very cold weather and snow. I have read and understood that the snow amount is not possible to forecast until hours before it happens though , but I would be interested to know as I did go out and get extra food before the last lot of snow fell as we were unable to get out for a few days, but after the snow started to thaw the supermarkets were out of the basics (because people were not prepared or did hear in time). as I followed what everyone was saying on here I was prepared.

The west as a whole generally does less well out of a direct easterly, unless its a very potent one which enables showers to push in land. Ideally for snow we would want a low skirting along N'ern France, but snow can pop up from no where and if cold becomes entrenched like last time the breakdown should provide some interest.

Edit: dogs, that update is pretty good! No hint of anything other than 'cold' from the MO and they have been pretty consistent with their outlooks for this cold spell, despite the model wobbles. All to play for imo.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Tattooed Fox]

Thanks for that Matt,

I suppose I was hoping it would swing around SW and give us a good dose? Instead of skirting away from the SE. I hope that makes sense to you.

[caz100]

anyone seen the snow weather in usa wow loads and ive always thought we kinda get snow from there 2 weeks after so i wonder if we will !!!!!

[dogs32]

The west as a whole generally does less well out of a direct easterly, unless its a very potent one which enables showers to push in land. Ideally for snow we would want a low skirting along N'ern France, but snow can pop up from no where and if cold becomes entrenched like last time the breakdown should provide some interest.

Edit: dogs, that update is pretty good! No hint of anything other than 'cold' from the MO and they have been pretty consistent with their outlooks for this cold spell, despite the model wobbles. All to play for imo.

Hi Mat,

does look good if you like snow with lots of potential next week.

Will it flop??

And just be cold?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Hi Mat,

does look good if you like snow with lots of potential next week.

Will it flop??

And just be cold?

Always the risk, I think next week will be pretty snowless for us, but moving into the weekend and beyond... perhaps

[jethro]

Does anyone have the records for the late 70s ? I seem to recall severe cold and deep snow in February (perhaps a week or so later than this) We were camping near Reading with thick snow and temperatures so low that we had to warm the gas cylinder in the car to get any gas to come out (that might have been late February in 1977 ) and was it the same time of year in 1978 that there was epic snowfall in SW?

Try these sites:

http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

[egret]

Try these sites:

http://www.booty.org.../histclimat.htm

http://www.napier.ec...r/bonacina.html

Thanks JETHRO, yes this confirms it was 18/19 Feb '78 that brought heavy snow to sw and 1979 was very cold.

Watch the next week with interest -- might it turn out similar?

[Nights King]

Morning all,

Nice to see model upgrades this morning, I'm off to holland for 2 days tomoro so I shall be back tuesday night but I still fear that I might miss something!

Another chilly dull morning here today at 3c which although grim could be the start of a great cold spell ahead...

[Ripeberry]

Well at least, if it does get snowy next weekend, most parents won't have to worry about getting

their kids to school as it will be half-term from 15th-22nd Feb.