South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[noggin]

It's looking like a good two week cold spell, at the moment. Dare I hope for a snowy birthday on 21st?

Bearing in mind that I'm knocking on a bit, I have charted the demise of SW snow throughout my life!

I was born in 1956 in a very cold, snowy spell. Throughout my childhood there was snow falling on my birthday. During my teens, there was lying snow on my birthday. By my 20s, I was lucky if there was a frost on my birthday, apart from one memorable birthday somewhere between 1978 and 1980.

Well, last February was snowy, although I can't remember if it was on my birthday. (It's not old age casuing me to forget....some dire and important things have happened between then and now.)

Anyway, it DID snow in February last year and I am hopeful that I will now start to have snowy birthdays again!

The first post that I ever made on NW was about the decline of February snow over the previous 50 years. Here's hoping that it's all coming back again.....natural cycles and all that.

Blimey, have I wittered on or what?

Fingers crossed for a cracking couple of weeks for us all.

Peace and love, peeps, peace and love.

[Bristawl Si]

Morning all,

Nice to see model upgrades this morning, I'm off to holland for 2 days tomoro so I shall be back tuesday night but I still fear that I might miss something!

Another chilly dull morning here today at 3c which although grim could be the start of a great cold spell ahead...

I suspect M you have more chance of seeing snow in Holland than the West of UK this first half of week.

Tomaz Sch....on countrytracks, seemed to indicate more widespread snow showers during 2nd half of week, but here in our neck of the woods limited chance. Our friends in N.Devon and Cornwall may fair better though.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

What about central Devon?

NW homepage is showing snow for me tomorrow... I can't keep up :lol:

[Bristawl Si]

What about central Devon?

NW homepage is showing snow for me tomorrow... I can't keep up

we could do with an update from Ian F. Been checking his blog, but no update for a couple of days.

reckon any main action for our neck of the woods will come next weekend and beyond.

[snowking]

reckon any main action for our neck of the woods will come next weekend and beyond.

Spot on

Very quick update from me but essentially the story this week is cold a RELATIVELY dry (everything's relative)

The following week we start to see more unstable lower pressure across southern areas, heralding the risk of some prolonged sleet/snow for many

Kris

[aspire27]

7.2 degrees today. Mild if you ask me.

Lots of talk on the model output thread yesterday of temps being in the region of 3-4 degrees.

Not IMBY.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

1.7C here and thick fog. Has been all day, nasty!

[Nights King]

7.2 degrees today. Mild if you ask me.

Lots of talk on the model output thread yesterday of temps being in the region of 3-4 degrees.

Not IMBY.

Well its 5.3c at home but that is very high up so not as cold as id expect.

looks cold and sunny in west holland.

[aspire27]

Well its 5.3c at home but that is very high up so not as cold as id expect.

looks cold and sunny in west holland.

I was just under the impression today was when the first part of the colder air was to arrive. I dont mean really cold, but lots of people

were talking around 3-4 degrees.

Thinking about it though, because the model output thread is so so so East biased they were probably talking about IMBY rather than the country as

a whole.

[Snowfan50]

Its been 3-4 c all day in barnstaple, yesterday was 11c. Sharp drop off so i guess the cold air is ariving.

[Nights King]

Its been 3-4 c all day in barnstaple, yesterday was 11c. Sharp drop off so i guess the cold air is ariving.

Yes I think it is getting colder although cloud/fog cover and thickness does alter temperatures on a regional scale quite widely so forecast temperatures are not always correct and should be used as a rough estimate.

I always find temps are around 3c colder sometimes alot more than forecast in lower towns and cities for example.

[Bristawl Si]

I was just under the impression today was when the first part of the colder air was to arrive. I dont mean really cold, but lots of people

were talking around 3-4 degrees.

Thinking about it though, because the model output thread is so so so East biased they were probably talking about IMBY rather than the country as

a whole.

Temps for our neck of the woods are forecast to be around 4 to 5 celsius over next couple of days, dropping another degree or two towards end of the week - beyond that we'll prob have to wait and see. At night we'll prob see temps well below freezing from tom night onwards i'd suspect.

As for precipitation it looks like we'll remain mainly dry but i wouldn't be surprised to see snow showers feeding thru' by end of the week and then next weekend and into early next week, a greater chance of more prolonged precipitation, hopefully of the snowy type!

[dancing daisy]

I suspect M you have more chance of seeing snow in Holland than the West of UK this first half of week.

Tomaz Sch....on countrytracks, seemed to indicate more widespread snow showers during 2nd half of week, but here in our neck of the woods limited chance. Our friends in N.Devon and Cornwall may fair better though.

Is that Tomaz guy the one who got his kit off for Attitude mag? My friend loves him long time! lol

Well I most certainly do not want snow over half term, I am one of the spoilt few who actually gets snow days on full pay. Plus I have plans for my week off. Yes I know I am selfish, but hey ho.

It is defo getting a lot colder out there now. Yet at lunchtime my friends and I ate outdoors which was lovely.

Everyone keeps saying that it is overcast and nasty where they are but I must have the sun following me about at the moment as I have been lucky enough to have had some lovely days.

Mullender, enjoy Holland!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Is that Tomaz guy the one who got his kit off for Attitude mag? My friend loves him long time! lol

Well I most certainly do not want snow over half term, I am one of the spoilt few who actually gets snow days on full pay. Plus I have plans for my week off. Yes I know I am selfish, but hey ho.

It is defo getting a lot colder out there now. Yet at lunchtime my friends and I ate outdoors which was lovely.

Everyone keeps saying that it is overcast and nasty where they are but I must have the sun following me about at the moment as I have been lucky enough to have had some lovely days.

Mullender, enjoy Holland!

Well aren't you the lucky one

The fog has lifted here, to be replaced by damp overcastness ... still cold! Was quite nice and warm in the sun yesterday, no such luck from now on though.

Still, got me tickets to JJ so I'm happy!

[SteveB]

Cool dull and cloudy sums up today. Looking forward to some more seasonal weather over the coming week.

[Nights King]

cooling down now 2.9c and dull!

Did i mention its also getting dark.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

cooling down now 2.9c and dull!

Did i mention its also getting dark.

My max was 1.7C today, darn chilly out there now, and damp. Not nice at all. Hopefully we will either get snow or dry, crisp days.

Oh, and yes, its dark

[Ian Fergusson]

Quick note - some 'interest value' snow expected tonight; generally light accumulations; effectively from Wash across to Glos most prone but also some chance to N/S of this line; 0 - 4 cm in this swathe but highly variable.

Quick note 2: Baroclinic feature slipping southwards to possible bring snow for parts of our (eastern, generally) region Thurs into Fri.

Quick note 3: Main focus for any snow (daytime partial or whole thaw must be stressed) - next weekend; troughs (some quite broadly across southern UK) moving south as the anticipated genesis for this potential.

I do stress most snow potential this period is primarily for the E/SE and then transferring northwards in the latter stages of 6-15 day period. Kent could see some interesting totals due to convergence effects.

Can't current expand on the detail - if I get time tomorrow after work, I will.

Cheers

Ian

Edited February 7, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[quantock girl]

It was cold and icy where I was this morning!

Where was I? Bristol ice rink!!

Cold on the Quantocks this afternoon though, grey too.

Dancing Daisy - Thought Aphra Behn was naughtier?!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Thanks for the updates Ian.

Good Country File forcast for next week and beyond with more snow around generally on Thursday and Friday

[Bristawl Si]

Cheers Ian. I copied and posted your update in Model discussion Thread - hope you don't mind.

Doesn't look brill for us, then for this week with regards snow - hopefully things will temporarily 'break down' over the weekend and we get a dump of snow from the south west and then it gets pushed back by the very cold.

[aspire27]

Not much in the way of PPN for us according to Ian (thanks for the update Ian). Worrying that the PPN moves further norh in the longer term outlook.

Got a horrible feeling the SW will only get decent snow from a breakdown due to the atlantic coming in. But this is far far FI, and not modeled yet.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

With 10+ days of cold to go there is no way of knowing.

All to play for still.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[dancing daisy]

It was cold and icy where I was this morning!

Where was I? Bristol ice rink!!

Cold on the Quantocks this afternoon though, grey too.

Dancing Daisy - Thought Aphra Behn was naughtier?!

Oh god yes! What with her and Rochester...lol. That restoration period was hedonism on legs. Well apart from the Puritans of course.

I can confirm it is also dark here as well.

Edit> I have just read that back, I can never call you all weather geeks again can I, as I have just shown you all that I am even geekier than the lot of you put together. Damn, street cred gone!

Double edit> Darn it, I just read Ian's post. I am off to Buckinghamshire on Saturday for the day with a mate, she has got tickets for some pilot tv show with James Cordon as the host. I hope we can still go as that was my valentines treat, to myself I hasten to add. (No, don't feel sorry for me, I don't need your pity! lol).

Edited February 7, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Oh god yes! What with her and Rochester...lol. That restoration period was hedonism on legs. Well apart from the Puritans of course.

I can confirm it is also dark here as well.

Edit> I have just read that back, I can never call you all weather geeks again can I, as I have just shown you all that I am even geekier than the lot of you put together. Damn, street cred gone!

Double edit> Darn it, I just read Ian's post. I am off to Buckinghamshire on Saturday for the day with a mate, she has got tickets for some pilot tv show with James Cordon as the host. I hope we can still go as that was my valentines treat, to myself I hasten to add. (No, don't feel sorry for me, I don't need your pity! lol).

Can I have some of what your drinking please?

(Still dark... )