London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion

[Met4Cast]

Really? Precipitation charts dont back that up

The models arnt usually very good with predicting showers. During the last cold spell the models were predicting light snow showers for Eastern parts only, these turned out to be heavy, and pushed fairly far inland in reality.

[Shutterbug Netty]

Lol i was being a bit pedantic. Still looks as though the main event will be in kent, east sussex. though could see some light showers in your region on wednesday

Thanks for the reply

Guess I'll have to keep everything crossed

[The Weather Yoda]

That was for up untill wednesday. after that the flow is slighter slacker. looks like we are in a faster progression with the easterlies shorter lived. think this run we could see the northerly move over us faster

Ah yes, I see. Could be quite a widespread covering through tonight and tomorrow morning affecting our whole area. Totals won't be up to much, but enough for a snowball fight I would reckon.

Looks more of an easterly component through the weekend which will please people further west....but not me!

[Damp and dreary]

Charts looking a bit better ref the Easterly strength but, i was disapointed to see that the predicted temps had risen this morning. Mr Fish was showing wednesday as being the lowest at 3c, yesterday it was showing as a degree drop everyday, from today at 5c to friday/saturday at 1c. Hope this is wrong as it is making it more marginal at that temperature, even taking into account temp drops in showers. Also likely to thaw quickly in those temps. Lets hope it gets readjusted later!

[thegreat316]

Charts looking a bit better ref the Easterly strength but, i was disapointed to see that the predicted temps had risen this morning. Mr Fish was showing wednesday as being the lowest at 3c, yesterday it was showing as a degree drop everyday, from today at 5c to friday/saturday at 1c. Hope this is wrong as it is making it more marginal at that temperature, even taking into account temp drops in showers. Also likely to thaw quickly in those temps. Lets hope it gets readjusted later!

Well the 6Z run has the high further south on fri/sat, which means the showers for this weekend have gone, and higher temps.

on the plus side we are in a nothwesterly by sunday and a strong northerly on monday with bands on ppn running down the country. I think the model thread will be much happier soon.

all subject to chage though

Edited February 9, 2010 by thegreat316

[The Weather Yoda]

Blimey, the 6z ups the stakes for the northerly reload. The model discussion rattle throwers will be happy with that. Shows how quickly things can flip flop

[Damp and dreary]

Well the 6Z run has the high further south on fri/sat, which means the showers for this weekend have gone, and higher temps.

on the plus side we are in a nothwesterly by sunday and a strong northerly on monday with bands on ppn running down the country. I think the model thread will be much happier soon.

all subject to chage though

Hi, slightly pushed off into the future again for the proper cold! Well i guess we will see, i always seem to do better from an Easterly, the last lot of snow which went on for over a day and fairly heavy at times, came from an easterly which gave us a great 'streamer style' event. Northerlys seem to fizzle out a fair bit before getting down this way. Anyway all to pay for as many say on here and could be a lot worse.

Jason

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think that with respect to temperatures through this week, then these will be influenced by the frequency of snow showers and any accumulations of snow that occur. Temps will quckly drop to freezing in showers and most especially in any more persistent snow. Snow cover will also restrict temps and increase the penetration of night time frosts if/when skies clear for any time.

If the advisories come anywhere near reality then the suggested temperatures by the beeb etc will be very hard to achieve and would only occur in any urban area that doesn't see much in the way of snow and gets lots of daytime sunshine.

Edited February 9, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[thegreat316]

Hi, slightly pushed off into the future again for the proper cold! Well i guess we will see, i always seem to do better from an Easterly, the last lot of snow which went on for over a day and fairly heavy at times, came from an easterly which gave us a great 'streamer style' event. Northerlys seem to fizzle out a fair bit before getting down this way. Anyway all to pay for as many say on here and could be a lot worse.

Jason

HEY,

Yes, the grass is always greener in FI

I remember the streamer well, was oringally forcasted to be over me, hit further east and burried Eastbourne with constant snow for like a day!

Totally agree easterlies much better then northerlies for us, however if it will cher up the depressing model thread then thats somthing!

[Buzzit]

** Also posted in model thread **

At this point I have to say I have been following the NAE and NMM and in my opinion they have been rubbish this week

Getting precipitation completely wrong even by the time the data is released. Very poor.

Goes to show how uncertain the actualities are at the moment

[Damp and dreary]

HEY,

Yes, the grass is always greener in FI

I remember the streamer well, was oringally forcasted to be over me, hit further east and burried Eastbourne with constant snow for like a day!

Totally agree easterlies much better then northerlies for us, however if it will cher up the depressing model thread then thats somthing!

Sorry but i did have a smirk on my face when it happened. Its a bit blurry as i went to an all night party on the friday night, while partying the snow came heavier and heavier and we started to wonder if we would get home in morning. We finaly got back about 6a.m and after looking at the brilliant Net Weather radars (subtle advertising) i thought "what a change" seing the streamer bang over us and just missing Brighton. It had been the other way round for a few times in the week previous. The snow then continued all saturday, shame i was a lil bit tired to properly enjoy it!

Anyway, when cold is around now and possible in FI for a good week yet looks like i will be glued to these forums for a while yet. Been a member for ages but as you can tell from the post amounts, i only bother posting in the winter (or thundery times in the summer!)

Edited February 9, 2010 by jasonuk

[thegreat316]

Sorry but i did have a smirk on my face when it happened. Its a bit blurry as i went to an all night party on the friday night, while partying the snow came heavier and heavier and we started to wonder if we would get home in morning. We finaly got back about 6a.m and after looking at the brilliant Net Weather radars (subtle advertising) i thought "what a change" seing the streamer bang over us and just missing Brighton. It had been the other way round for a few times in the week previous. The snow then continued all saturday, shame i was a lil bit tired to properly enjoy it!

Anyway, when cold is around now and possible in FI for a good week yet looks like i will be glued to these forums for a while yet. Been a member for ages but as you can tell from the post amounts, i only bother posting in the winter (or thundery times in the summer!)

LOL im sure you will remember that night for a long time!

remember you being on here but not posting any pictures! you were getting burried and not letting us see it

Swings and roundabouts, some streamers will hit you and some will hit me, hopefully more will hit me

Looking good for this week, and into next week. Hopefully the showers will pep up today.

I think tomorrow and thursday i will be driving to eastbourne/kent to see the snow

[Neilsouth]

I was right on the coast today doing some photography and that wind was NOT slack , it was gusty and felt bitter. The temps ranged from 2-5c in different areas and it also snowed as it is now

[Damp and dreary]

2.9c In Eastbourne, slight sleety/snowgrains in the wind, dewpoint still about -1c (which is nice). Radar currently showing nowt of interest (which is boring!)

[Guest FireStorm]

New alert from Met office (Yellow) removed Friday from the alerts too

London & South East England: Kent / Medway

Heavy Snow Wed 10 Feb

Snow showers are likely to become more frequent and perhaps heavy later in the day, leading to accumulations of 2 to 5 cm in some areas, with perhaps 5 to 10 cm in places and some drifting is also possible.

Issued at: 1055 Tue 9 Feb

London & South East England: Kent / Medway

Heavy Snow Thu 11 Feb

Further snow showers are likely, especially during the first part of the day, giving a few more centimetres in some areas. Drifting is also possible.

Issued at: 1059 Tue 9 Feb

Edited February 9, 2010 by FireStorm

[thegreat316]

New alert from Met office (Yellow) removed Friday from the alerts too

London & South East England: Kent / Medway

Heavy Snow Wed 10 Feb

Snow showers are likely to become more frequent and perhaps heavy later in the day, leading to accumulations of 2 to 5 cm in some areas, with perhaps 5 to 10 cm in places and some drifting is also possible.

Issued at: 1055 Tue 9 Feb

London & South East England: Kent / Medway

Heavy Snow Thu 11 Feb

Further snow showers are likely, especially during the first part of the day, giving a few more centimetres in some areas. Drifting is also possible.

Issued at: 1059 Tue 9 Feb

And have taken away alearts for east sussex thurs and fri

[Filski]

Have to say I'm a bit disappointed. London misses out again.

Was hoping for 1 more sled in Greenwich park before moving home to Oz.

[Weathizard]

Looking like a non-event like most previous winters.

[ZONE 51]

Have to say I'm a bit disappointed. London misses out again.

Was hoping for 1 more sled in Greenwich park before moving home to Oz.

london has not totally missed out ,theres a feature developing tomorow ,advisorys as we know are were they are expecting the heaviest falls at this stage

last february i had 14inces of snow here ,i was expecting a few inces at the time , that situation developed within hrs .

today some snow shrs inland , they could turn heavier for the se

Edited February 9, 2010 by nimbilus

[West Sussex Kate]

Yep you can never tell where it might pop up. Depends on wind.

Anyway quite sunny today and in the sun it's warm-ish. Temp says 4c

[ZONE 51]

clouds are building and some really rugged looking bases on them all cloudy now

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

And have taken away alearts for east sussex thurs and fri

Advisories are always subject to change - and they are likely to change again.

Nowcasting from tomorrow onwards might reveal flash orange warnings. Those are the one's that really matter. Forecasting ppn from the North Sea is a tricky and fickle business

I will be very surprised if the regional counties in general do not see at least a covering of some sort in the coming days, The suggested wind direction should bring ppn inland from time to time, and there is enough instabilty indicated.

Edited February 9, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[londonsnow]

Advisories are always subject to change - and they are likely to change again.

Nowcasting from tomorrow onwards might reveal flash orange warnings. Those are the one's that really matter. Forecasting ppn from the North Sea is a tricky and fickle business

I will be very surprised if the regional counties in general do not see at least a covering of some sort in the coming days, The suggested wind direction should bring ppn inland from time to time, and there is enough instabilty indicated.

totally agree. when you've been in snow business as long as you or i have online, nowcasting is fairly key. last feb was case in point for parts of london. been saying it for years but forecasting snow accurately from convective activity is a nightmare, maybe on a par with forecasting imported storms in the summer

[thegreat316]

Advisories are always subject to change - and they are likely to change again.

Nowcasting from tomorrow onwards might reveal flash orange warnings. Those are the one's that really matter. Forecasting ppn from the North Sea is a tricky and fickle business

I will be very surprised if the regional counties in general do not see at least a covering of some sort in the coming days, The suggested wind direction should bring ppn inland from time to time, and there is enough instabilty indicated.

Agree Tamara, it can be very hard to forcast, as we have seen already this winter. Even today, a lot of people outside the south east said it would be dry for them this week, but look at the NW radar, showers up and down the country. South east probably has the least showers

still, i would be more confident if there were advisorys up now.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

totally agree. when you've been in snow business as long as you or i have online, nowcasting is fairly key. last feb was case in point for parts of london. been saying it for years but forecasting snow accurately from convective activity is a nightmare, maybe on a par with forecasting imported storms in the summer

Yes, last Feb, correct me if I am wrong there was a red warning for London and Surrey out of the blue so to speak(excuse the pun) in terms of that intense streamer that sent up from the estuary. Whilst actual red warnings are very very unlikely this time around, the principle is still the same. Latest bulletin I have just seen points out the uncertainties regarding the snow for later tomorrow and into Thursday for the SE so that says it all really

The removal of an advisory for Friday doesn't neccessarily mean that the threat of snow has gone away. Indeed it looks like some kind of convergence zone appears to be modelled as loitering over the area till at least Saturday and the exact details of this are still subject to pinpointing predictions.