London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion

[snowbob]

Sadly it will die out soon. Heres the latest NW Radar

Tomorrow late morning/afternoon you may get some more

Thanks for that(thegreat) looking forward to more chances tomorrow

[snow raven]

Yes, the model thread has gone very quiet, I usually try and get my fix of the 18Z before bed and no-one is commenting, the excitement seems to have fizzled somewhat - hope it is not an omen

Everyone has probably managed to get themselves banned with the sniping, the IMBY posts, and blowing their own trumpet predictions of 2 weeks ago (thanks to the seagulls)

[snowydayz]

No doom and gloom in here team London & the South East hey! It's cold, it snowed today, we may get some more so Happy Days here!

Jasonuk, walking 9 miles home would be a little bit much after two hours of being with teenagers in a cold Scout Hall, but hey, you could sponsor me if you like

I will "Be Prepared"

[msx999]

Just about to go to bed, it certainly feels a lot colder, similar to the cold we had at the beginning of the month... Hoping for some lying snow over the next few days...

[yamkin]

For starters, here are some snowy charts :D

[Jan_Bromley]

I had 3 hours of moderate snow this afternoon. Such a pity that the surface temps were too high. Hopefully, by Thursday the colder air will be dragged in enough for it to lay.

Jan

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

GEFS 18z ensembles for both Kent and Sussex (didn't check the other counties but they would be similar) show the mean staying between -8 850 temps and -12 850 temps out till at least the 13th. Every single ensemble member is below -5 850 up to the 15th.

There are possible signs I think that the cold spell might be extended in the next day or so - with any atlantic intervention being put back and a possible reload from the north and or east coming into play. But need to watch what happens.

But excellent agreement anyway, on it staying cold in our part of the world till into next week with plenty of support for any snow that is going .

Edited February 9, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Helvellyn]

feeling very bitter out there. only around -1 but some gusty wind adding a significant windchill.

[Damp and dreary]

No doom and gloom in here team London & the South East hey! It's cold, it snowed today, we may get some more so Happy Days here!

Jasonuk, walking 9 miles home would be a little bit much after two hours of being with teenagers in a cold Scout Hall, but hey, you could sponsor me if you like

I will "Be Prepared"

Errrr, think il give that a miss actually

[MAF]

feeling very bitter out there. only around -1 but some gusty wind adding a significant windchill.

windchill works out around -7°C

[Callie]

Small grains of snow falling as I was driving into work this morning

[The Weather Yoda]

GFS 0Z shows continuous snow in Kent solidly from 36z out until 180z. This appears to be due to the High becoming better positioned and allowing a more extensive and prolonged north easterly for this time period. ECM shows this also with UKMO not quite as good, but better than yesterday. The fax charts also show an initial trough for tomorrow and then a convergence zone through Thursday and all the way into Saturday.

Oh and I would say in the medium to long term the block looks more east than previously, so the notherly is now almost affecting western parts rather than dissapearing into the Atlantic. This also has the effect of reducing the mild influence which was looking to attack the south once the high started to slip northwards.

Let the fun begin

[Neilsouth]

^ Nice post ! , thanks for the update

[Jayces]

It's interesting reading this forum and getting various people's perspective on what is going to happen, the only frustrating thing is that everyone has different opinions on what may happen.

Looking at various charts that are posted and reading people's thoughts on what will happen we go from no snow to a little snow in the far SE corner (basically just SE Kent) to widespread snow for the whole country.

All I know is that if I see pink blobs on the NW radar heading towards the black dot that represents my house then it's going to snow and the darker the pink the heavier the snow.

All I want is to have a few days out in it with my kids from the weekend onwards as the last 2 lots were whilst I was at work

[Coast]

Small grains of snow falling as I was driving into work this morning

They were very small Callie!

Carol Kirkwood calling it for our corner of the World for tomorrow, specifically Kent, Surrey and Sussex.

Now I'm not an IMBY but...........

[Neilsouth]

Starts wednesday night , the further east you are in kent the better!

[Neilsouth]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

Much longer track across the south east with the ecm

Snowing in London , some snow here earlier

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2159?summary=show01

Local , showed snow wednesday-saturday upto 15cm one to keep an eye on

[The Weather Yoda]

Everything looking slightly better this morning in the sort, medium and long term....lets see what the GFS 6z has to say. Not looking good for my house move on Friday. Might have to use sledges rather than a van...good job I have three.

I'm gonna stick to posting on this topic as the mood is slightly anti SE, especially us lucky few down in Kent, in the model discussion at the moment.

If you will choose to live ooop north

[thegreat316]

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

Much longer track across the south east with the ecm

Snowing in London , some snow here earlier

Last few GFS runs have had the HP slightly further north west and the SW moving in towards us a bit more. More defined easterlies on the 6z run and tighter isobars.

should see the showers slightly further inland

[Shutterbug Netty]

Last few GFS runs have had the HP slightly further north west and the SW moving in towards us a bit more. More defined easterlies on the 6z run and tighter isobars.

should see the showers slightly further inland

Does this increase the chances for Essex?

[The Weather Yoda]

GFS 6z appears to be showing a feature tonight running down the east and then affecting the south east by the morning. Could be a nice appetiser for the main dish

The 6Z makes the flow slightly flabbier which reduces the snow potential Thursday through Satuday. This is going to be down to nowcasting from now on in though. The potential is there, we just need to keep an eye on the radar from tonight onwards

Edited February 9, 2010 by Snow Schmow

[Met4Cast]

Just watched the latest SE today forecast on the BBC website, and Michael Fish was calling for a period of heavy snow Thursday into Friday, and said some areas could see upto 15cm, obviously this being over higher ground though.

[thegreat316]

Does this increase the chances for Essex?

Lol i was being a bit pedantic. Still looks as though the main event will be in kent, east sussex. though could see some light showers in your region on wednesday

[The Weather Yoda]

Last few GFS runs have had the HP slightly further north west and the SW moving in towards us a bit more. More defined easterlies on the 6z run and tighter isobars.

should see the showers slightly further inland

Really? Precipitation charts dont back that up

[thegreat316]

Really? Precipitation charts dont back that up

That was for up untill wednesday. after that the flow is slighter slacker. looks like we are in a faster progression with the easterlies shorter lived. think this run we could see the northerly move over us faster

(Should watch the entire run before commentating or at least T48)

Edited February 9, 2010 by thegreat316