London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion

[snow raven]

Heaviest snow of the day currently at London Bridge. Not settling though, so dew points must be above freezing.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think that at some stage there will be a more general area of snow for a greater part of the region. GFS seems a bit less keen atm, but the UKMO seem quite bullish on the idea of one or two troughs swinging in from the north east over our area. The fax already gives an early indication of this possibility. This could easily organise and band snow showers together and also intensify any streamers that are evident.

It is early days yet and those advisories are just a start at three days or so away.

[<<Ryan>>]

been snowing since 6:30 this morning, it did lay on WET sufaces aswell. Although it has been snowing heavily most the day we only have around an inch:)

[Guest FireStorm]

UKMO is pretty accurate and coming out on top apparently from the model discussion thread, so it being bullish on troughs making it through the area can only be a good thing for the snow lovers.

[frozencanals]

Hi All

Snow briefly appeared here in Shoreditch, but just as I started typing it is stopping again, and now its back again... maybe its got the hiccups

Cheers

FC

Edited February 8, 2010 by frozencanals

[thegreat316]

With enough of an easterly element in the wind and sufficient strength then some snow showers should filter through to you too. I lived in West Sussex during the winter 95/96 and similar set ups to this one provided snow cover. I think that the local forecast is right in what they are saying

heres hoping. though got sisters in east sussex and kent, so if the easterly is not quite potent enough i will go for a drive and visit them

[hardcj]

What do people think about medway getting a severe hit again like back in December? or are we too far west?

Cheers

[ZONE 51]

Just started snowing again here, having stopped for a hour or so.

Looking at later in the week, the exact direction of the wind is going to determine how any snow streamers set up and the tracks across the counties that they take. They can be quite localised with a line of localities experiencing almost continuous snowfall for several hours whilst areas either side see little or none at all. When we see the advisories out for the region, that is something that needs to be borne in mind.

During the cold spell in the first half of Jan there was a NNE element to the windflow on the weekend of the 9/10th Jan and areas from Canterbury and other east kent districts, Ashford, my own locality nr the A28, and then on down further to Hastings saw snow snowers all day throughout the Saturday, wheras others not far away seemed to miss out. Conversely, during the pre xmas cold spell, snow showers lined up though parts of Essex, London, NW kent and on down to more western areas of East Sussex including Brighton. I should also mention western sussex here too which saw a lot of snow.There were some very marked variations in snow depths across Kent, Sussex,Surrey, london and Essex

So it will probably come down to a nowcast as to specific localities that see snow. During the day though, with stronger sunshine now we are into February, it could be the case that snow showers break out more extensively beyond organised streamers. The NE'erly of Feb 2005, for eg, saw some heavy convective snow showers break out inland during the afternoons after quite sunny mornings. With 850 temps at -10 and even below as well as probable low dewpoints (which is important) then we shouldn't see much snow melt during the day, despite the sunshine, but most especially where skies stay cloudy and snow showers are most frequent.

Thurs.Fri look the best days - but also I wouldn't be surprised to see new advisories as we go through the week, suggested for into the weekend as well. The NE wind looks to persist through much of the weekend off the north sea. Much depends upon the exact placement of the high pressure to the north west, and how much instability there is, which the models are still not sure about.

thanks for that totally agree with this

[wee]

Heavy snow and big flakes in Brighton at the mo,but still not laying

[ZONE 51]

wednesdays snow most likely showery but accumulations in places i think

heres two zoomed snaps

[Guest FireStorm]

What do people think about medway getting a severe hit again like back in December? or are we too far west?

Cheers

Not so sure about 'severe' but there does look to be a decent enough risk of snow towards the end of the week. As long as they keep darnley road clear for the buses so i can get into chatham lol.

It doesn't take much to slow the towns down though, so severe could be classed as 2 inches

The finer details of how much snow falls is anyones guess currently. Higher elevations are always expected to do well.. Chatham Hill / Bluebell Hill / North Downs etc, the usual culprits.

I do not want to count my chickens before they're hatched though,

[hardcj]

Not so sure about 'severe' but there does look to be a decent enough risk of snow towards the end of the week. As long as they keep darnley road clear for the buses so i can get into chatham lol.

It doesn't take much to slow the towns down though, so severe could be classed as 2 inches

The finer details of how much snow falls is anyones guess currently. Higher elevations are always expected to do well.. Chatham Hill / Bluebell Hill / North Downs etc, the usual culprits.

I do not want to count my chickens before they're hatched though,

Well I said severe because it really doesn't take much for Medway to stop!......thank you for the reply though as it answered my question that we could be in the firing line!

[Jayces]

Stopped here now so reckon that's our lot now until Wednesday.

Was more then I expected, would have been nice if it settled but hey it's been a great Winter so far.

[t_trump1]

had snow on and off all day today. bit of sleet mixed in earlier but mainly snow later on. What are my chances of seeing some settling snow here in Hornchurch in the coming days?

[Guest FireStorm]

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021012_0812.gif

Some snow as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening?

[Neilsouth]

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021012_0812.gif

Some snow as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening?

-12C upper temps for E Anglia/SE for Wed too

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rmgfs542.gif

[Guest FireStorm]

NAE Weatheronline going for slightly lower but generally still supportive of when the winds shift to an Easterly

but im confused..

Shouldnt the 950hPa temperatures be warmer then the 850's?

+T33 http://expert.weathe...020921_0812.gif

+T36 http://expert.weathe...021000_0812.gif

a sub 15-17 degree drop in temps over 3hrs? lol

Edited February 8, 2010 by FireStorm

[thegreat316]

Nice snow flakes faling over the last couple hours here in west sussex. real big proper ones too

seem to be dying away now though.

\<Rant>

OMG some utter nonsense in the model thread right now.

Really love reading some posters thoughts in there, but keep seeing newer members come in and constantly arguee with them.

obvouisly some posters write as if the glass is haf full and some write as if its half empty.

personally i would rather like to hear the positives of particular runs then the constant negitives.

i like to look and talk about F.I charts, although i know they are very unlikly to come off. I know not to think they WILL happen and dont get upset when they dont.

some years there was no real cold spell in winter and looking at F.I charts to see cold was all there was!

\<Rant>

[tomavenell]

snowed here moderately all day. only a slight covering

[Buzzit]

OMG some utter nonsense in the model thread right now.

Yes its like a family squabble where one person always has to be right and another always has to have the last word..

Utter nonsense and is great to be back in the relative sanity of the London and SE Thread

By the way - I see snow showers for a few more hours tonight and based on model output and NMM I think wednesday is looking more tasty for snow lovers than is currently expected

Edited February 8, 2010 by Buzzit

[PLANET THANET]

please dont ever let this thread degenerate down to the level of the model thread.

[thegreat316]

By the way - I see snow showers for a few more hours tonight and based on model output and NMM I think wednesday is looking more tasty for snow lovers than is currently expected

thats what i like to hear

if i see the road turn white this week i will be happy.

if not, i think i will drive down to neilsouth he always seems to be in a good spot

[snowydayz]

Goodness me, some real tantrums over on the Model thread, it's like the old BBC site over

No tantrums here I hope

Been snowing nearly all day here with some heavier burst now and again, looks like Wednesday could be fun and cold

[BarnetBlizzard]

Very good outlook for the SE this week. Just slightly disapointed that the high couldnt be further northwest, as a repeat of feb 09 could have been on offer but nevertheless a snowly outlook for the forseeable future:)

[Guest FireStorm]

You dont get ignored in here either because your post count isnt in 4 digits but let's not have a mini rant that goes off topic. Let's all rejoice in the new chance of Wednesday snow risk! the NAE/GFS is happy to support snow for Wednesday making my walk from the train station, home much more inviting.

How is NMM looking Wednesday afternoon/evening? Dewpoints of 0c or below with 850hPa temps at least -8c and an easterly I hope?