South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Cashy, had heavy snow this morning when I left for work, intense rain at work and then back home this afternoon, light, powdery snow but nothing since about 5pm (just thick fog) Nothing settled either.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

Interesting NAE 18z showing another snow event at + 42 hours for wales and gloucester! the dividing line is once again north of the m4!

[Nights King]

Interesting NAE 18z showing another snow event at + 42 hours for wales and gloucester! the dividing line is once again north of the m4!

I think i might cry if that came off with devon seeing snow and somerset/bristol seeing nothing again!

Strange thing is though although nothing on radar its been snowing very lightly for the last hour with a light dusting in place now!?

[snowking]

Yep the feature picked up on the 6z GFS continues to be modelled fairly similarly by the NAE

If you've learnt nothing else from this cold spell (and i'd find it hard to believe with all the expert posting from the likes of iceberg and ian etc. that this would be true) then it should be look no further ahead than the NAE range - 48 hours. Its been very consistent in its modelling of this current snowy spell

Incidentally i've just walked home (a bit worse for ware) in some pretty heavy snow giving a fresh covering of snow here in cheltenham after part of the wrap round from the rotation brought another period of snow

SK

[Iceberg]

Morning All and Bless you for the kind word above SK. :lol:

There does seem to be more marginal events for the SW over the coming few days and then the much hinted at start of next week !.

Showers packing in today, particularly for more southern areas of the SW and along the Bristol Channel coasts.

Then a chance Saturday as the more organised instability comes over from Ireland, mainly for higher areas and the northern reaches of the SW region, but also the moors etc.

And then next week, which is chopping and changing all over the place still but there remains the possibility of a severe event 20-30% from two low pressure systems moving up the channel. The models are variously hot and cold on the idea, let alone the placement being good to provide snow for us, we really need to wait until maybe Sunday morning when it comes into the NAE timeframe as SK says.

BTW I'd actually prefer a nice 15-20C atm and sunshine, but if I can't have that then snow watching is better than cold rain certainty. !

[dogs32]

yes I have just seen Carol Kirkwood Humdinger and Ian's forecast mentioning further snow area to hit our Counties on Saturday...

Not sure if we will see Spring this year..

What a long Winter

[Evening thunder]

Just found this webcam in north Devon. http://www.westbuckland.devon.sch.uk/met/weatherindex.htm

Looks like those showers moving in now are providing a nice wintry scene in a few places!

[SteveB]

Yes saw the snow word mentioned for tomorrow morning, but as Iceberg Say's teetering on the marginal side.

[westysweather]

wow.... the mention of channel low has got my attention in the model output room!!!!

[kaz]

wow never expected to wake up and see a massive load of snow out my window where did that come from? sun's out now so soon will fingers x melt. but it is very thick..

kaz x

[Lynxus]

We had about ( id say 4 inches worth ) of snow yesterday.

Constant snow from around 3:30 till 10pm.

It was melting under the snow, so as it settled, it was also melting .. Leaving about 1.5inches total this morning.

I've noticed some cars ( probably from the forest ) had a good 4 inches on their cars.

[MP-R]

Morning all,

Managed to get a view across to Wales from an area higher up from me and the view is great with snowcovered hills and some on the more local Wraxall/Failand hills too. Liking the news from Devon and what a scene on that webcam! Hope they move this way.

[Iceberg]

There has been a big shift in model guidance for the SW for Saturday shown up well by the NAE and GFS 06Z runs, this places the instability further south, making things alot less marginal for snow. At the same time there has been more instability as the developing closed circulation develops a more pronounced warm sector.

The warm sector looks like missing the SW, however a band of heavy precip looks likely to occur with 24 hr totals of upto 15 or so mm/cms in places.

This is very much a developing situation for the models so they won't have a full confident grasp of it yet and it could move even further south, missing the SW, stay the same or move back north.

However a band across the south of the region, Devon, south somerset and south dorset is progged at the moment.

I am expecting the METO to maybe set up a watch or advisory in the next hr or so for tomrorrow, or they could wait for the 12Z runs.

[Ian Fergusson]

There has been a big shift in model guidance for the SW for Saturday shown up well by the NAE and GFS 06Z runs, this places the instability further south, making things alot less marginal for snow. At the same time there has been more instability as the developing closed circulation develops a more pronounced warm sector.

The warm sector looks like missing the SW, however a band of heavy precip looks likely to occur with 24 hr totals of upto 15 or so mm/cms in places.

This is very much a developing situation for the models so they won't have a full confident grasp of it yet and it could move even further south, missing the SW, stay the same or move back north.

However a band across the south of the region, Devon, south somerset and south dorset is progged at the moment.

I am expecting the METO to maybe set up a watch or advisory in the next hr or so for tomrorrow, or they could wait for the 12Z runs.

Indeed so. And the Monday / Wednesday events have potential too but more especially Wednesday - I'm awaiting the next UKMO GM analysis on this one (due shortly), but the last run painted a distinctly wild story for many counties.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Hard frost last night, and frequent snow showers but it settles and then stops and the sun is quite warm when its out.

Whats all this for the weekend/next week?! The road I use to get to work is still closed due to the landslide from yesterday. So I'm working from home...

[Ian Fergusson]

Indeed so. And the Monday / Wednesday events have potential too but more especially Wednesday - I'm awaiting the next UKMO GM analysis on this one (due shortly), but the last run painted a distinctly wild story for many counties.

- and sure enough, the previous GM idea of the channel low for Wed is now scrubbed as a 'minority solution' according to Ops Centre and the latest evolution now looks very different indeed and far less bothersome. Given the degree of model and inter-run disparity on all this , I'm not bothering with further comment until come proper continuity appears!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Just 300feet higher and not so far away there is a covering of snow!

Dartcom

Snow a bit heavier here at the moment Whiteout!

Edited February 19, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Ian Fergusson]

- and sure enough, the previous GM idea of the channel low for Wed is now scrubbed as a 'minority solution' according to Ops Centre and the latest evolution now looks very different indeed and far less bothersome. Given the degree of model and inter-run disparity on all this , I'm not bothering with further comment until come proper continuity appears!

PS - the Monday advisory also about to be re-issued / changed because of growing uncertainty in evolution. It's all a mess really. A real forecasting headache. Am not bothering reading the Model thread stuff but for sure, nothing next week can be offered with anything better than low to moderate confidence, at least for now!

[Iceberg]

- and sure enough, the previous GM idea of the channel low for Wed is now scrubbed as a 'minority solution' according to Ops Centre and the latest evolution now looks very different indeed and far less bothersome. Given the degree of model and inter-run disparity on all this , I'm not bothering with further comment until come proper continuity appears!

Very wise indeed, the changes even at just 24 hrs makes things a nightmare, but surely you proper forecasters arn't allowed to throw the towel in ! :unsure:

IMO they should just paint the whole country yellow for the next 5 days....

[dancing daisy]

PS - the Monday advisory also about to be re-issued / changed because of growing uncertainty in evolution. It's all a mess really. A real forecasting headache. Am not bothering reading the Model thread stuff but for sure, nothing next week can be offered with anything better than low to moderate confidence, at least for now!

I'll swap you my hangover for your forecasting headache!

Just put up a map with snow, wind, rain, and sun on it say, say it could snow, might rain, will possibly be windy and some areas will have sunshine. Easy innit! :unsure:

Right, next problem?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I'll swap you my hangover for your forecasting headache!

Just put up a map with snow, wind, rain, and sun on it say, say it could snow, might rain, will possibly be windy and some areas will have sunshine. Easy innit!

Right, next problem?

Thats what they do isn't it?

[Evening thunder]

About an hour ago we had a brief sleet/snow/hail shower which began to settle in a few places and then stopped turning the patchy frost remaining a bit more white. Melted now though.

The 06z GFS is not so good for the SW as the 00z, however its all rather uncertain especially as Ian is pointing out from his great input to this forum.

[dancing daisy]

Thats what they do isn't it?

:unsure:

It's a lovely day here, positively spring like, if I can find my sunglasses then I may even venture outdoors.

We didn't see any snow at all yesterday, just a lot of rain.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

It's a lovely day here, positively spring like, if I can find my sunglasses then I may even venture outdoors.

We didn't see any snow at all yesterday, just a lot of rain.

Sun is back out here, but after that last snow the level of settled snow is just 50feet above me. (I can see the line just up the hill) :unsure: So its getting there!

Yes, lots of rain down at work yesterday, but snow up here. Bored of winter now!

[textmum]

We have beautiful blue sky here too, still have a covering of snow on the ground and cars, it looks so lovely out!