Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Crimson_Sprite]

It will barely get north of Birmingham tomorrow, so the chances of anything falling in Nottingham are slim.

what you mean precipitation in general? or just the snow?

[MKN]

06z looking more inline with NAE at the minute.

[cold stoke]

06z looking more inline with NAE at the minute.

heavy snow again in stoke

[kold weather]

Finally looking at the 06z GFS we have total agreement from the models on a snowfall rather similar to Thursday in terms of location of snow threat, maybe a small bit further south.

Its quite a complex set-up though because temps appear to be more condusive during the day time which I'm not sure about to be honest, I suspect it'll probably hit the cold air and turn to snow almost right away, despite the NAE seeming to think it will start as rain, but we shall see!

Either way the front stalls somewhat and edges away eastwards probably giving 6-9hrs worth of decently heavy snow to the southern Midlands, probably 10-15cms IMO...

[kev238]

The new NAE may have shifted it all a lot further south east. Accumulated precipitation has been updated and suggest little precipitation pushing into midlands compared to earlier run.

[Nick L]

what you mean precipitation in general? or just the snow?

Precipitation. It's even hit and miss for me. I hope you do get it though, because then I will!

[MKN]

The new NAE may have shifted it all a lot further south east. Accumulated precipitation has been updated and suggest little precipitation pushing into midlands compared to earlier run.

Sure has the heaviest precip is over the london area now. Quite a big move south east. Gfs has it over the midlands now as does the most recent nmm, will await the 11am nmm to see what that says. Could be a dry day tommorow.

[kev238]

Yeah- it will be decided in the morning-- looking at the radar will be the best bet!!

[MKN]

The metoffice usually update there warnings around 1030am so if they remain the same i wouldnt be to worried, they must have taken the info on board and analyised whether its likely to be correct or not.

To add to that though at +18 hours, Midnight tonight the gfs and NAE have the precip in almost the exact same position, Nae must have it going directly eastwards almost opposed to north east.

[kev238]

TBH I dont expect it to go get to Nottingham anyhow. Will be pleasantly surprised if it does. I find the Met office base their warnings a lot on the nae so would expect there to be some shift unless they discount it completely.

[andy_leics22]

How is the snow in Leicester? I'm away for the weekend and would be gutted if you've had the best snow all winter! It's raining in Herts!

Around 2 inches mate, on all surfaces My road is covered still, it will defanitly be melting in a few hours though

The snow on the grass should stay though, it stayed all throughout yesterday and the temp rose to 4c yesterday. Maybe some more snow tonight by the looks of the 06z run

Heres a pic of my road at 7am this morning

[Nick L]

LOL it's raining

[Serendipity]

I'm expecting rain tomorrow, it was really cold here last night yet the snow was quite poor this morning and is thawing quickly PLUS I gather it turned to rain before moving off. I would imagine it will be the same tomorrow.

[kold weather]

06z NAE has shifted the core for Mondays precip further south and weakened the northern part alot, based on the 06z only light snowfall on Monday. However as I said on the model thread, I think the 06z NAE has gone too far the wrong way and the 0z NAE will actually be the model that nails the evolution IMO, esp with total agreement from all other models now.

[andy_leics22]

I'm expecting rain tomorrow, it was really cold here last night yet the snow was quite poor this morning and is thawing quickly PLUS I gather it turned to rain before moving off. I would imagine it will be the same tomorrow.

The problem for you is that the snow line seems to be around Northampton Northwards. The same will apply for tomorrow I think, maybe even Coventry/Leicester Northwards. It's a complex situation though.

[butler_son]

Wait...what's all this white stuff?

[Costa Del Fal]

A rapid thaw now. Glad i saw the snow when i did but we had a good 3 or so cm's. Plenty of opportunities this coming week with round 2 tomorrow.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Blizzards

[Potent Gust]

Starting to thaw rapidly now. However we have now had 5 coverings of snow of 4cms or more this winter, best for many a year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just north of the Midlands here in Crewe in South Cheshire. Woke up at 7am to around 4 inches of level snow on the grass and 3-4 inches elsewhere. Took a walk to the shop earlier and the snow was round my ankles in places. Best fall of snow this winter and i'm thoroughly happy that AT LAST I have seen a decent fall of snow this winter. Thawing rapidly now in the sun though.

[Costa Del Fal]

I hope the 06z NAE isnt right otherwise it looks just a cloudy day tomorrow with a few snow flurries. GFS doesnttlook that far away either.

[conor123]

Has more like an inch in Telford but its hard to tell as i slept through it and theres been a rapid thaw from the ,looks of things.

Shame how close tommorow's front is going to get but it was never meant to reach here anyway.

Edited February 21, 2010 by conor123

[Rommy]

just watched bbc news weather has the low jst clipping the eastern parts of the midlands then pulling away south?...are we going to miss the heavy stuf?...im totally confused

[Costa Del Fal]

just watched bbc news weather has the low jst clipping the eastern parts of the midlands then pulling away south?...are we going to miss the heavy stuf?...im totally confused

Unfortunately that looks like the likely option now. :o

[Bolton67]

Not bad for us in the east mids

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes, the best fall of the winter for us with 11cm in my back garden.

Was certainly a nice surprise to wake up to Ian. Wasn't expecting as much as what fell with being on low ground circa 50 metres above sea level; that didn't seem to matter last night. I have been quite bitter this winter about areas just to the north of both me and you getting major snow amounts (about 10 inches in the Manchester area in the Jan cold spell) and it made it worse that on ocassions I could see the shower trains 15 miles to the north!! Last night eased that bitterness somewhat