London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[Jayces]

I think we may well have to accept that the chances of us getting anymore snow in the near future are less then zilch.

Still we can dream.

[yamkin]

I see the cold uppers are slowly retreating north on those quirky models as the time gets nearer, everyone did say they were not reliable for us, only Moscow.

Wrong, the uppers are not retreating North. Not everyone thinks WMC is unreliable.

[Damp and dreary]

Wrong, the uppers are not retreating North. Not everyone thinks WMC is unreliable.

Lol, come on mate, i wasnt being funny to you. From comparing those models from the ones you were showing a day or 2 ago the colder uppers are now progged to be even further north. I said before they were marginal but they are even more so now.

[<<Ryan>>]

will this next band coming through be snow??

[MAF]

Lol, come on mate, i wasnt being funny to you. From comparing those models from the ones you were showing a day or 2 ago the colder uppers are now progged to be even further north. I said before they were marginal but they are even more so now.

ah but you have to compensate for the Yamkin effect.... that is, if it even remotely looks like snow, yamkin will ramp it up :lol:

only joking Yamkin :)

[yamkin]

WMC 12Z uppers still looking cold by the end of this week

[thegreat316]

Sun out now on the southcost, absolutely beautiful day, clear blue sky. Feels like summer .

would be out in the garden if it was not flooded!.

However the future looks bleek for us in the south east. Look at whats heading for us next. fun

Im going go enjoy the sun on the beach

[winter watcher]

WMC 12Z uppers still looking cold by the end of this week :lol:

I do not think we should be talking about possible cold weather at the moment. Its the weekend that worries me this potential 'Bomb' off a very deep low pressure system that is originating from a very unusual place and could potentially give the south east a direct hit. After all the rain we have had over the past 5 days and already the river down the back off me is very high i fear the worst and hope to god that we miss this system all together because if it does happen then there's no doubt that there will be severe flooding and there is no doubt that there will be very high wind speeds.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I do not think we should be talking about possible cold weather at the moment. Its the weekend that worries me this potential 'Bomb' off a very deep low pressure system that is originating from a very unusual place and could potentially give the south east a direct hit. After all the rain we have had over the past 5 days and already the river down the back off me is very high i fear the worst and hope to god that we miss this system all together because if it does happen then there's no doubt that there will be severe flooding and there is no doubt that there will be very high wind speeds.

I totally agree with you and I am further towards the south east corner too I hardly dared look at the models this morning after the shocking ECM 12z of last night.

This morning the low is still there although not quite as ugly as last night. The winds still look very strong on the southern flank of the low. I am hoping that the UKMO is going to be steady with this and lead the others - as the METO model has kept the feature shallower for our good and also for the good of the French who look to be in the most vulnerable position of all.

But until that (very hopefully) happens then the prayers and worries continue.

Edited February 24, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Hammer]

I totally agree with you and I am further towards the south east corner too I hardly dared look at the models this morning after the shocking ECM 12z of last night.

This morning the low is still there although not quite as ugly as last night. The winds still look very strong on the southern flank of the low. I am hoping that the UKMO is going to be steady with this and lead the others - as the METO model has kept the feature shallower for our good and also for the good of the French who look to be in the most vulnerable position of all.

But until that (very hopefully) happens then the prayers and worries continue.

What are the chances that the low is further west and does not interact as much with Spain/Portugal and France and runs up Bay of Biscay and in to the English Channel (which as we can see today from thegreat's post) does provide plenty of energy for systems.

Thoughts?

Edited February 24, 2010 by Hammer

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

What are the chances that the low is further west and does not interact as much with Spain/Portugal and France and runs up Bay of Biscay and in to the English Channel (which as we can see today from thegreat's post) does provide plenty of energy for systems.

Thoughts?

We need another round of model outputs to start to get an increasingly more confident idea of the track and strength of the low. Although the exact strength of the low has yet to be settled there is, just perhaps, a consensus starting to emerge that the low will track NE through Biscay and Northern France and then keep moving NE to be centred somewhere between the SE channel coast and NE France at some stage later on Sunday. ECM,UKMO,GFS and GEM are all pretty similar from the overnight outputs in terms of the track, give or take a very small variation.

That path needn't necessarily be a severe weather problem if the low doesn't keep or worse still increase strength on its arrival close to the south UK. The best scenario of course would be for the latest UKMO solution which would give some fairly wet weather but without any worries about the wind. I think we could all actually be very happy and most relieved with this situation if it verified - speaking in relative terms. The strongest winds are always going to be on the southern flank of the low, so such a NE trajectory would give some shield to the strongest winds as far as we are concerned here. Providing it doesn't track further west through the UK.

So your own ideas need to be ruled out first in terms of more worse case scenarios.

Edited February 24, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[yamkin]

I do not think we should be talking about possible cold weather at the moment. Its the weekend that worries me this potential 'Bomb' off a very deep low pressure system that is originating from a very unusual place and could potentially give the south east a direct hit. After all the rain we have had over the past 5 days and already the river down the back off me is very high i fear the worst and hope to god that we miss this system all together because if it does happen then there's no doubt that there will be severe flooding and there is no doubt that there will be very high wind speeds.

I am also closely monitoring the deep low pressure you have mentioned. This can also be seen on the WMC 00Z 500 72h to the West of Portugal, but it really starts to intensify on the WMC 00Z 500 84h and get's even closer to the South of the UK. This is worrying :80:

The cold uppers are still being shown on WMC 00Z 850 72h & 84h.

Edited February 24, 2010 by yamkin

[ZONE 51]

on storm watch for the weekend.

in the short term some heavy downpours for this evening

[Weathizard]

Hacking it down here in Brighton.

[Coast]

Hacking it down here in Brighton.

Got a brief rest from it with some sunshine at lunchtime, but it is indeed chucking it down now. I'm not sure if I should rename this thread to London and SE rain watch. Could be more flooding issues/updates during the next couple of days:

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods

[Neilsouth]

Thats some dark cloud coming to my south , south west

If only it was summer

[snowfish]

Thats some dark cloud coming to my south , south west

If only it was summer

Hello mate!

Yep, some very interesting radar colours coming our way! Think the sunday storm will be worth watching and I do think things will turn interesting the first week in March with a potential easterly which might deliver for us in the SE (ooh no, what 'ave I said) wait 'n' see......

[wee]

Hi Guys ,this low that everyones talking about for sunday,is it going to be just extremly heavy rain or are we talking about high winds too? if so what wind speeds could we be seeing on the south coast?

[Neilsouth]

Hi Guys ,this low that everyones talking about for sunday,is it going to be just extremly heavy rain or are we talking about high winds too? if so what wind speeds could we be seeing on the south coast?

Blizzards , hailstorms , lightning , hurricane winds and tsunami's

[wee]

Blizzards , hailstorms , lightning , hurricane winds and tsunami's

I hope you are pulling my leg Neilsouth?

[wee]

Can anyone tell me if this low could be something to worry about? i am hoping that what Neilsouth said was tongue in cheek,thanks guys.

[MAF]

Hi Guys ,this low that everyones talking about for sunday,is it going to be just extremly heavy rain or are we talking about high winds too? if so what wind speeds could we be seeing on the south coast?

just dont think about flying a kite on the beach

Edited February 24, 2010 by MAF

[yamkin]

Can anyone tell me if this low could be something to worry about? i am hoping that what Neilsouth said was tongue in cheek,thanks guys.

At the moment models are suggesting on Sunday there will be heavy rain and strong winds which could gust to 70 - 80 mph. There is also a possibility of the low pulling in a colder NE feed later on which could give us a wintry mix.

MetO will most probably issue Advisory Warnings for the S/SE tomorrow regarding this worrying low. This all could amount to nothing by Sunday, but is still on course for Sunday at the moment.

[Ben_Cambs]

Can anyone tell me if this low could be something to worry about? i am hoping that what Neilsouth said was tongue in cheek,thanks guys.

This could be something to worry about Im afraid, looks like prologned heavy rain on Sunday for you guys and the SE will bear the brunt of it, and this is a deep LP, so there could be some pretty strong gusts on exposed Coastal areas, and with rainfall likely before hand there could potentially be problems with Flooding come Sunday. Thankfully afterwards HP looks likely to build come next week, bringing in much dryer and cooler conditions

[MAF]

Sorry Wee, just kidding.

the Meto forecast is predicting gusts of around 30 MPH over sunday day and night with heavy rain all day too. sunday daytime you are going to have an easterly and that veers northerly overnight. not sure how those directions affect you down there :lol: