Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?27-12

[Snowlover2]

Here's some pics of the snow from my back garden

[Stuart]

http://www.meteociel...1-192.GIF?27-12

Lovely Chart that is

Edited February 27, 2010 by Stuart

[LomondSnowstorm]

Here's some pics of the snow from my back garden

Nice, I would post pics from here but they're kind of embarassingly snowless compared to almost every other part of Scotland

[Guest]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?27-12

LS, I know it's deep into FI, but for once we can't discount charts like this:

:blink:

Edited February 27, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Highland Snow]

Perth saw nothing at all yesterday. Yet again this has been a non event for us yet 10-20 miles away 12-24 inches fell - very strange!:blink:

[Guest]

Here's some pics of the snow from my back garden

I can never tire of looking at other people's snowcovered sheds :lol: :lol: More please!!

Perth saw nothing at all yesterday. Yet again this has been a non event for us yet 10-20 miles away 12-24 inches fell - very strange!:blink:

It might be because of your altitude, the snow line here is about 20-30m asl which seems ridiculous but there you go

[LomondSnowstorm]

Damn! (throws tv out of window) NMM showing a RAIN event overnight! Bloody east coast marginality for you.

No swear filter on that either!

Edited February 27, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[snowy owl]

LS, I know it's deep into FI, but for once we can't discount charts like this:

:blink:

I take it your feeling very optimistic after all the snowfalls this winter that this chart now looks feasible!

[Snowlover2]

I can never tire of looking at other people's snowcovered sheds More please!!

It might be because of your altitude, the snow line here is about 20-30m asl which seems ridiculous but there you go

Catch i work in Morrisons, in the Deli. It's only a small one, just hoping it keeps them all indoors until i finish at 2pm lol

[NorthernRab]

I can never tire of looking at other people's snowcovered sheds :blink: :lol: More please!!

It might be because of your altitude, the snow line here is about 20-30m asl which seems ridiculous but there you go

I was the same in Inverness yesterday! My house had about 5 inches, 25 metres down hardly anything!This spell was just a degree or two above a countrywide hammering!

[Gilly]

I know its well into FI but agree with your comments Catch and LS. I would put money on it staying much as now with the odd very cold night thrown in for good measure over the next couple of weeks!

0C and grey this morning.

Edinburgh area still getting snow and looks heavier this morning!

[snowy owl]

I know its well into FI but agree with your comments Catch and LS. I would put money on it staying much as now with the odd very cold night thrown in for good measure over the next couple of weeks!

0C and grey this morning.

Edinburgh area still getting snow and looks heavier this morning!

Still snowing here Gilly but on the ground its melting slowly. Sky still very dark though. Suspect this snow may be short lived.

[Guest]

Catch i work in Morrisons, in the Deli. It's only a small one, just hoping it keeps them all indoors until i finish at 2pm lol

Mmmm Deli counter I am becoming more and more like Homer every day.

The snow might have the reverse effect and have everyone panic buying. On Thursday in Kilmacolm there was no milk or bread left because everyone had stampeded the shops. Veg and meat was available in abundance so I panic bought that instead as we already had milk and bread in the house

I take it your feeling very optimistic after all the snowfalls this winter that this chart now looks feasible! :lol:

I am getting cocky since there is a load of snow on the ground with flurries falling from the sky. No need to be nervous like most winters :lol:

I was the same in Inverness yesterday! My house had about 5 inches, 25 metres down hardly anything!This spell was just a degree or two above a countrywide hammering!

I know what you mean about the degree ot two thing, that rain the other night was falling at 1C, really frustrating to have the best part of a foot of snow and then 12 hours of very cold rain :greedy smilie:

I would love to be able to get up into the hills to the west of my house as I think it may well have stayed as snow the night before last up there. When the cloud lifts now and again to show the hills they look whiter than I've ever seen them before. I may try a photo later but from past experience my 3.1M camera doesn't pick out contrasts of white on grey on white :blink:

(p.s. glad you made it home eventually :lol:)

[Northernlights]

Currently 1c overcast and little wind but has been a ground frost and the remaining snowpack has firmed up. Looks as though we will keep a good bit of it for the next two weeks well into March.A really wintry looking countryside. I am not hugely up on the technical side but one or many of the major drivers has changed competely to give us a cold bias all the time now. Is it just a southerly tracking jetstream( if so what caused it?)or much lower sea temperatures or other factors(eg low sunspot activity) or is it a combination of these and other factors. If cold carries on into April then one or many these factors has undergone a major change.

Saw one oystercatcher looking for a nesting site in a field 10 days but nothing since. We would normally hear oystercatchers crying round the fields at night by now and all the bulbs and plants in the garden are in suspended animation The signs of spring are really being held back now but I know it could change suddenly.

[Big Innes Madori]

Morning All,

Pretty much snawed here all night, although not always heavy so we only have aboot 3.5" of new snaw since it started at tea time yesterday

Looks good out there

It stopped at about 8 am and the sky seemed to clear with large areas of Blue showing, but it's Grey and heavy looking again now

Big Innes

Edited February 27, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[LomondSnowstorm]

Currently 1c overcast and little wind but has been a ground frost and the remaining snowpack has firmed up. Looks as though we will keep a good bit of it for the next two weeks well into March.A really wintry looking countryside. I am not hugely up on the technical side but one or many of the major drivers has changed competely to give us a cold bias all the time now. Is it just a southerly tracking jetstream( if so what caused it?)or much lower sea temperatures or other factors(eg low sunspot activity) or is it a combination of these and other factors. If cold carries on into April then one or many these factors has undergone a major change.

Saw one oystercatcher looking for a nesting site in a field 10 days but nothing since. We would normally hear oystercatchers crying round the fields at night by now and all the bulbs and plants in the garden are in suspended animation The signs of spring are really being held back now but I know it could change suddenly.

The track of the jetstream has been the main driver in this IMO, as this has allowed the cold air from northern latitudes to move southwards. This is why the AO has been so negative - even if the blocking has not been favourably placed all the time for cold, snowy weather across the UK, most at our latitude and even about 10 degrees south of it were experiencing freezing cold weather when they might be expecting milder and wetter weather, and conversely Greenland has been warmer than average because most of the time it has just been under high pressure when usually the polar vortex is located there. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100102.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100120.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100131.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091222.gif

Note in every chart a major block of around 1040 accompanied by green/yellow heights is present. Bog standard winter charts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120061221.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070119.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050119.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980219.gif

Blues to the north, yellows to the south. The 80s, late 70s and 60s - more like this - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860219.gif

Generally lows tracking south of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790119.gif

Typical upper profile for very +AO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00220061224.gif

-AO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220091222.gif

[Big Innes Madori]

Currently 1c overcast and little wind but has been a ground frost and the remaining snowpack has firmed up. Looks as though we will keep a good bit of it for the next two weeks well into March.A really wintry looking countryside. I am not hugely up on the technical side but one or many of the major drivers has changed competely to give us a cold bias all the time now. Is it just a southerly tracking jetstream( if so what caused it?)or much lower sea temperatures or other factors(eg low sunspot activity) or is it a combination of these and other factors. If cold carries on into April then one or many these factors has undergone a major change.

Saw one oystercatcher looking for a nesting site in a field 10 days but nothing since. We would normally hear oystercatchers crying round the fields at night by now and all the bulbs and plants in the garden are in suspended animation The signs of spring are really being held back now but I know it could change suddenly.

Hi NL,

I Agree that something significant has changed to allow this winter, which most of us on NW have been looking for for years now

I'm sure that some of the more technical and scientific peeps can highlight some specifics for us

Big Innes

Edit: I knew you wouldn't let us down LS

Edited February 27, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[Polar Gael]

Well this defining winter is going out with a bang all right - except in Shawlands where we have had a "wintry mix" of cold rain, sleet and wet snow (but mainly rain) since Thursday (incidentally, does anyone else dislike that term, wintry mix? Seems to be fashionable with the younger Met O bods these days but I don't remember the old school guys using it).

Best we've done from this latest snowy spell was by Thursday morning when there was about 2-3 inches of snowy slush everywhere. Got my hopes up, but no, the rain scuppered any further accumulations.

The marginality of the spell was emphasised last night when we drove to Mearns for a Burns Supper. Loads of snow there and another decent covering during the evening.

Back to Shawlands later on: more funting puddles....

My mum lives up in Auchterarder and it's fair to say that they've been well and truly whumphed with the white stuff. 18-24". :blink: Mental. Intermittent power loss, telephones were knackered and mobile reception was sporadic. A 40ft tall tree in her garden gave up the ghost due ot the weight of the snow on it and collapsed across her driveway, blocking her in, too. :unsure:

Sounds as though Wed and Thurs were "snowmageddon" up there. Will hopefully get some pics and try to post them later on - they still had around 15" lying level snow yesterday even after it had turned to rain and there was a bit of a thaw.

Looks like my snowdance worked this year (think raindance but for the frozen stuff instead). :D Am now thinking this winter is one against which others will be judged in future years. Truly defining. Am glad I lived through it! That said, perhaps it is now time to stop the Inuit bodypopping disco frenzy and think about estivating for the summer - if we get a summer that is.

As it is, it looks like winter's going to spill over into March. I suspect we will have a cold and late spring, but it would be grand if we could flick a switch and go to instant sunshine and 20°C round about Easter. Or even July.

Currently, grey and 1.9°C in Shawlands. Nae snaw. Meh.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Polar Gael

[Cheggers]

Morning all, snowing here, and heavy. Had about about another 2" overnight and this morning which wasn't expected. Just goes to show how the upper temps play a part, yesterday was 0.8 and rain, now 1.4 and heavy snow.

Off to fetch wee one from SRI.

[Polar Gael]

The track of the jetstream has been the main driver in this IMO, as this has allowed the cold air from northern latitudes to move southwards. This is why the AO has been so negative - even if the blocking has not been favourably placed all the time for cold, snowy weather across the UK, most at our latitude and even about 10 degrees south of it were experiencing freezing cold weather when they might be expecting milder and wetter weather, and conversely Greenland has been warmer than average because most of the time it has just been under high pressure when usually the polar vortex is located there.

Agree with this analysis, LS. Shift the jetstream and you change everything: low pressure systems meandering about all over the British Isles (wandering the "wrong" way east to west, etc) in a continuing pool of of very cold air thanks to blocking, instead of the usual default of mild SWerlies, gales and constant rain. Slack flow from said lows giving the sort of settled weather that you've normally associate with high pressure over these islands. Brilliant stuff.

What has been truly notable about this winter has been the total dearth of any gales since the original blocking kicked in back in December and also any truly mild temps (i.e. above 10°C - we've had one day that managed this since mid-December).

Personally, I've loved it. I really thought a winter like this one was beyond us and I'm so glad that it isn't.

A blip or a trend? BFTP (and others) has posted on this frequently in the TOORP thread and the technical TOORP thread and is convinced that the jet going south is a long term pattern change. It's early days, but I tend to agree with this - this type of winter (though not perhaps its severity) could become the norm. Unfortunately, it is likely also to mean a greater number of rubbish summers (i.e. cool and unsettled) so it's a bit of a curate's egg. It looks like more of a 1960s/1980s long term pattern has kicked in and on previous form this could last for a couple of decades - just as the M****n W****r did... (wonder how Ian Brown's book is going?).

As ever though, time will tell and the weather will do what it wants.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Polar Gael

[StewieEatWorld]

A good few cm's here in total then which was good to see. 92M above sea level so that helped as well

[Snowplough33]

Agree with this analysis, LS. Shift the jetstream and you change everything: low pressure systems meandering about all over the British Isles (wandering the "wrong" way east to west, etc) in a continuing pool of of very cold air thanks to blocking, instead of the usual default of mild SWerlies, gales and constant rain. Slack flow from said lows giving the sort of settled weather that you've normally associate with high pressure over these islands. Brilliant stuff.

What has been truly notable about this winter has been the total dearth of any gales since the original blocking kicked in back in December and also any truly mild temps (i.e. above 10°C - we've had one day that managed this since mid-December).

Personally, I've loved it. I really thought a winter like this one was beyond us and I'm so glad that it isn't.

A blip or a trend? BFTP (and others) has posted on this frequently in the TOORP thread and the technical TOORP thread and is convinced that the jet going south is a long term pattern change. It's early days, but I tend to agree with this - this type of winter (though not perhaps its severity) could become the norm. Unfortunately, it is likely also to mean a greater number of rubbish summers (i.e. cool and unsettled) so it's a bit of a curate's egg. It looks like more of a 1960s/1980s long term pattern has kicked in and on previous form this could last for a couple of decades - just as the M****n W****r did... (wonder how Ian Brown's book is going?).

As ever though, time will tell and the weather will do what it wants.

[StewieEatWorld]

A blip or a trend? BFTP (and others) has posted on this frequently in the TOORP thread and the technical TOORP thread and is convinced that the jet going south is a long term pattern change. It's early days, but I tend to agree with this - this type of winter (though not perhaps its severity) could become the norm. Unfortunately, it is likely also to mean a greater number of rubbish summers (i.e. cool and unsettled) so it's a bit of a curate's egg. It looks like more of a 1960s/1980s long term pattern has kicked in and on previous form this could last for a couple of decades - just as the M****n W****r did... (wonder how Ian Brown's book is going?).

As ever though, time will tell and the weather will do what it wants.

This I agree with. I know absolutely nothing about weather except the basics and how to read models and such, but I do believe it's just patterns, or cycles even. We'll get a batch of warm years of winter weather, then cold, then warm, then cold.

[Guest]

GFS still throwing out snowy potential in spades, this is a cracker for east and central Scotland although I'm not sure what the coasts would be like:

What's up with attachments??

Edit: BEASTERLY appears on the GFS

Edited February 27, 2010 by CatchMyDrift