Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowplough33]

GFS still throwing out snowy potential in spades, this is a cracker for east and central Scotland although I'm not sure what the coasts would be like:

What's up with attachments??

Edit: BEASTERLY appears on the GFS

I know exectly what this will be like on the coast..........wet and very cold again

But this wont be cold and wet.........

Edited February 27, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Guest]

I know exectly what this will be like on the coast..........wet and very cold again

But this wont be cold and wet.........

That's the very chart I meant when I edited my post

The word to describe that is: stoater.

[blitzen]

I know exectly what this will be like on the coast..........wet and very cold again

But this wont be cold and wet.........

Blimey, could that come off? it's not really all that far away is it. We had non-stop pulsing snow overnight which has dumped about 5" here. Surprised Innes doesn't have more as he's practically living in the clouds up there!

Edited February 27, 2010 by Blitzen

[Snowplough33]

That's the very chart I meant when I edited my post

The word to describe that is: stoater.

One last blast perhaps before summer........still fairly far out though.

Not herd that word for a few years......"stoater"

[blitzen]

God what a week! Leaking roof, flooded hall, knackered carpet. Computer lead broke this morning. Went outside to take some photos of the snow and the batteries in the camera were dead. Gremlins with the attachments? or is that me as well?

Edited February 27, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

God what a week! Leaking roof, flooded hall, knackered carpet. Computer lead broke this morning. Went outside to take some photos of the snow and the batteries in the camera were dead. Gremlins with the attachments? or is that me as well?

At least you got some snow at last Blitzen :)

I've got the gremos with the attachments, have seen similar in the TOORP thread too

Edited February 27, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[snowy owl]

Wow whit a stoater sums it up nicely!

could that really come off, methinks from this colder uppers and cold direction would mean nae probs at the coast either?

Edited February 27, 2010 by snowy owl

[blitzen]

Managed to take one photo before the batteries went this morning hanging out side door. Not very good as it doesn't show the depth all that well. Hubby bringing in new batteries later so will take more from other parts of the garden. If there is any snow left by then that is! If the 06z comes off, there may be plenty more opportunities tho'.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Blitzen

[Snowplough33]

Managed to take one photo before the batteries went this morning hanging out side door. Not very good as it doesn't show the depth all that well. Hubby bringing in new batteries later so will take more from other parts of the garden.

Great photo. Was that all from last night? We got nout

[blitzen]

Great photo. Was that all from last night? We got nout

Yep. Nothing here at all before that started.

[Guest]

Yep. Nothing here at all before that started.

Ooooo, more random snow on shed photos!! You can't beat a wee window into someone else's back garden covered in snow ;) :)

Here's a couple from out in the lane earlier:

And spot ToddlerCatch at the bottom right of the picture:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Went on a snow hunt, firstly to Freuchie where there was just a little slush left after an inch this morning, then to Cupar, where there was nothing, then Ceres, which had slightly more substantial slushy snow and finally to Glenrothes where there was an inch or two still lying at around 1pm. I haven't seen the 6Z but I assume that it looks fairly good? I'm just worried that the hill snow will melt overnight due to the incoming rain from the North Sea overnight.

LS

[Guest]

Went on a snow hunt, firstly to Freuchie where there was just a little slush left after an inch this morning, then to Cupar, where there was nothing, then Ceres, which had slightly more substantial slushy snow and finally to Glenrothes where there was an inch or two still lying at around 1pm. I haven't seen the 6Z but I assume that it looks fairly good? I'm just worried that the hill snow will melt overnight due to the incoming rain from the North Sea overnight.

LS

It's not bad LS, here's the 850 time series ensembles for Fife. The operational run has some support, especially from the ensemble control run which is a good sign:

Edit: And look at the mean, it's glued to the -5C level

Edited February 27, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's not bad LS, here's the 850 time series ensembles for Fife. The operational run has some support, especially from the ensemble control run which is a good sign:

Edit: And look at the mean, it's glued to the -5C level

Love it! -10 uppers and an easterly will equal snow whatever the month, be it November or April, so I do fancy my chances here - perhaps by-tor and those just the other side of the Firth of Tay could finally join in the fun that inland,northern and western areas have been having!

[Polar Gael]

So what do we expect to happen this summer? Will the jet return to normal, or will things be any differant through the summer?

At this stage, it's impossible to call it and anyone who does so is making little more than an educated guess. After all, who (aside from Joe Barstewardi - and he calls it cold more often than not) saw this winter coming from the vantage point of the start of last September? I think if anyone had suggested then that we would have the coldest December and January on record this winter, people would have assumed said person had been on the pills.

In general terms, stats tend to suggest that colder winters are followed by cooler summers more often than not, but this is linked to the overall temperature in the northern hemisphere. If the NH is colder than normal overall, then logically the chances of colder winters, cooler springs and cooler summers are greater. However, for the cold/cool to park itself over these islands, the right synoptics clearly still need to be in place.

In this context, one interesting point to note about January is that it was the warmest on record in the NH - just not in the major population areas.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/02/january-2010-warmest-on-record.shtml

Also, the sun is beginning to waken up:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/06/090619-sun-spot-jet-streams.html

But there are tentative signs that overall solar activity could be heading into a period of decline:

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=136

Which could, over time, lead to the jet being displaced from its usual zone to a more southerly track on a more regular basis. Without blundering too far into the minefield of the AGW/climate change/whatever the believers are calling it this year debate, there is growing evidence of a link between solar activity and mechanisms such as the jet and cloud formation.

It is far too simple to say that the variation of the sun's output = climate change, but it clearly impacts the atmospheric processes on earth in complex and indirect ways that we do not yet understand. And after all, without the sun, there would be no climate, no weather and no earth so it kinda makes sense that it could be the main driver behind any change that is taking place. Far too many people like to believe far too readily that we're the centre of everything and in "end of the world" scenarios. Well, we aren't and it it won't.

Fortunately, there are scientists who are trying to understand these processes better through experimentation:

http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/Research/CLOUD-en.html

There has been chat on the forum about how it is unlikely that we could have four duff summers in a row. IMHO, this is utter wibble and you only have to cast your mind back to 1985-88 to see that it's perfectly possible for this to occur.

So, at this stage, we just don't know, but it would be nice to think we could have a decent summer this year for a wee change.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Polar Gael

[blitzen]

Ooooo, more random snow on shed photos!! You can't beat a wee window into someone else's back garden covered in snow :) :)

Here's a couple from out in the lane earlier:

And spot ToddlerCatch at the bottom right of the picture:

Blimey Catch! You had quite a dumping there didn't you considering that was a couple of days ago! I see the wee one is a bit camera shy! :lol: We have a slow thaw on here, so wont bother with any more photos at the moment. Hope I get the chance in a few days tho'.

[Guest]

So, at this stage, we just don't know, but it would be nice to think we could have a decent summer this year for a wee change.

Stonking post PG

Can I just pop in my own tuppenceworth (well more like half-pence worth :lol:)

Last summer was not the complete disaster that people keep saying it was (not niggling at you PG, just making a point in defence of last summer ).

In the west of Scotland it may have been a "wet" summer but it was also warmer and sunnier than average too. June in particular was very good; at the Paisley Met-O weather station it was the 10th driest since 1959 and the 6th sunniest. It was all downhill from there even though July was the 11th sunniest since 1959; it was the 4th wettest too. August was the 3rd wettest August and fairly average sun wise.

So last summer started off very well and it all went downhill from there. Sounds familiar for Scotland (I'm thinking rugby, football...)

Blimey Catch! You had quite a dumping there didn't you considering that was a couple of days ago! I see the wee one is a bit camera shy! We have a slow thaw on here, so wont bother with any more photos at the moment. Hope I get the chance in a few days tho'.

Did you see my pics from my parents' house yesterday?? They are lucky they have a 4x4 otherwise they would be stuck in the house.

I can safely say we got a pasting and it's not over yet I don't think. Plenty more potential to come and that snow outside is not going anywhere very fast.

Love it! -10 uppers and an easterly will equal snow whatever the month, be it November or April, so I do fancy my chances here - perhaps by-tor and those just the other side of the Firth of Tay could finally join in the fun that inland,northern and western areas have been having!

-5 to -10 uppers and a northerly equal snow showers too Look at this pic from April 9th 2006:

I wish I had pics of the snow we got in May 1995 as that was truely incredible.

Edited February 27, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[blitzen]

Did you see my pics from my parents' house yesterday??

No I missed them Catch (too busy clearing up!) My goodness, what a depth! That looks like a lovely place your parents have.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

No I missed them Catch (too busy clearing up!) My goodness, what a depth! That looks like a lovely place your parents have.

It is pretty stunning, although it gets very spooky if you're there yourself overnight as all you can see around the house is trees. It does your head in after a while. I much prefer the flat where I stay now with a view out over other houses/gardens/fields and the reassuring clunk of the neighbours if MrsCatch and the kids are out

Edit: Is it just me or are some of the scenes over the past few months just so, so beautiful? I have been looking through my photos and some of the pics are really good, and I don't mean my photography (non)skills. I mean that the winter scenes are amazing!!

Edited February 27, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[blitzen]

It is pretty stunning, although it gets very spooky if you're there yourself overnight as all you can see around the house is trees. It does your head in after a while. I much prefer the flat where I stay now with a view out over other houses/gardens/fields and the reassuring clunk of the neighbours if MrsCatch and the kids are out

Edit: Is it just me or are some of the scenes over the past few months just so, so beautiful? I have been looking through my photos and some of the pics are really good, and I don't mean my photography (non)skills. I mean that the winter scenes are amazing!!

If it wasn't for the drying lines I would say that was somewhere in Norway! :lol:

[shuggee]

http://www.scot-rail.co.uk/photos/Infrastructure/page1/

Photos of the west highland line

[Polar Gael]

Stonking post PG :lol:

Can I just pop in my own tuppenceworth (well more like half-pence worth )

Last summer was not the complete disaster that people keep saying it was (not niggling at you PG, just making a point in defence of last summer ).

In the west of Scotland it may have been a "wet" summer but it was also warmer and sunnier than average too. June in particular was very good; at the Paisley Met-O weather station it was the 10th driest since 1959 and the 6th sunniest. It was all downhill from there even though July was the 11th sunniest since 1959; it was the 4th wettest too. August was the 3rd wettest August and fairly average sun wise.

So last summer started off very well and it all went downhill from there. Sounds familiar for Scotland (I'm thinking rugby, football...)

Cheers, Catch. You make a very good point. It was a summer of three thirds (to mangle a football cliche). June was excellent - I even began to believe the Met O's barbecue summer prediction - though I spent most of it indoors with a broken ankle and whacked out of my face on painkillers. Memorable for all the wrong reasons!

Thereafter, it was downhill for the weather, though not cool. Wet yes, but in particular, a lot of high overnight minima due to cloud cover, so it is important to separate the reality from people's perceptions or folk memories.

What it wasn't of course was a truly glorious summer a la 1976/1990/1995/2003/2006; I suspect our expectations have been raised by the number of relatively decent summers we had over the last couple of decades and we may have to temper these somewhat re what actually constitutes a decent Scottish summer.

After all, another 1976 after the one of the coldest winters on record couldn't happen, could it?

Talking of rugby, looks like it's all turned to sh*te against the Italians. The Spoon beckons...

Edited February 27, 2010 by Polar Gael

[blitzen]

http://www.scot-rail.co.uk/photos/Infrastructure/page1/

Photos of the west highland line

Some of those photos are really picturesque. Although not especially picturesque, I do like the Waverley ones. I think that is why I love Edinburgh so much as I always remember the smell associated with the station in my younger days. In fact Edinburgh had a marvelous distinctive smell of its own. I think it is a truly atmospheric place. Do you have something to do with the railways Shuggee, or are trains a hobby? The pictures are wonderful.

[shuggee]

Just an interest Blitzen - I like to keep up with the latest... Great snowdrifts though, will take a while to get that line open.

[howham]

Just had a brief and totally unexpected wintry shower here! Small snowflakes/ice mix. Temp currently 2.7C but DP -0.5C.