Convective Outlook

[Ben_Cambs]

A few rumbles of thunder here in the past 15 mins, no lightning as of yet and it looks like the heaviest of the PPN has moved through.

[wchris_uk]

Anyone east of Maidstone you will soon be hit with downpours and thunder.

oh maybe i might get hit again!!

[Neilsouth]

Dark shower cloud to my south , south west... Not as active as the previous one , yet

[Lynxus]

Looks like that's it for round this way, Convection has stopped .

At least I heard a few rumbles today

[loopydreamer]

just woke up! busy weekend of moving house and up late last night took its toll! apparently hubby said i missed heavy rain and a bit of hail! there are some stormy clouds approaching from my west

[Harry]

Here's some piccies taken 10 mins ago...

I have taken more but the upload speed has slowed right down...first pic is to my NW towards N London and the second is to my SE across C Kent

Edited June 6, 2010 by Harry

[jy]

Just looked at the storm risk on Netweather for my area of Hampshire shows 50 percent chance is this possible and if so from which area will it come,everything seems to be going on in lots of areas away from here,not that bothered about thunder so much,this area desperately needs rain thats all.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

It's touch and go as to whether that's it for Norwich- those cells over the Midlands are set to fizzle out this evening, but the one to the west of Norwich seems to be intensifying at the moment. Currently 18C at Norwich Airport with a dewpoint of 16C (!) - so there is certainly a good deal of humidity out there.

Hi TWS,

I'm slightly further North than Norwich Airport, currently temperature here is 17.8 with a Dewpoint of 15.8, so in the same league, but it's cloudy, having having had that shower go through, it only dropped 1.4mm, but it was only about 5 mins or so of reasonable rain.

Look forward to something later, if we're lucky

[Mesoscale]

the big cloud turned out to be a dud!! im still hopeing as cape is still rising past 900J/Kg

[Bronski]

Thanks,

Cant see anything just yet but im keeping an eye out, will let you know if it comes by!

if you look to the south west you might be able to see it! but its not looking as good anymore as its closer i think its developing stills oo m aybee when it gets to you it will produce something!

[Ian Fergusson]

the big cloud turned out to be a dud!! im still hopeing as cape is still rising past 900J/Kg

You saw the back of the cell (with a hint of some flanking line) heading now up past Stevenage to the NE.... hey, how can you tell the CAPE values? Have you gotten a balloon and Radiosonde for yourself from eBay? ;-)

[Noctilucid]

Significant development over Northern and Western Kent.

Currently I'm under quite a sloid blanket of mid level cloud, which is dampening the boundary layer convection considerably.

Edited June 6, 2010 by jshaw

[Ben_Cambs]

Some loud claps of thunder and just now a big fork of lightning . The cells have now passed to the north of my location after some intense rainfall

[Ian Fergusson]

Incidentally, the transient ridging and clearing skies that'll gradually ease eastwards this evening / tonight are now very well marked on vis-sat imagery.... some super evening sunshine into Bristol and environs now and those clearing skies evident into many adjacent districts too (as are the convective / T/S tops out east), if you check out latest EUMETSAT loop via www.sat24.com for example....

[loopydreamer]

Significant development over Northern and Western Kent.

Currently I'm under quite a sloid blanket of mid level cloud, which is dampening the boundary layer convection considerably.

arghhhh! and its a miss!!!!

[Mesoscale]

You saw the back of the cell (with a hint of some flanking line) heading now up past Stevenage to the NE.... hey, how can you tell the CAPE values? Have you gotten a balloon and Radiosonde for yourself from eBay? ;-)

haha im just going by what netweather have said for my area between 4pm and 7pm they predicted 800 - 900 cape! wouldnt mind my own weather balloon to be honest!

Sunny here now good sign so that the convection can get going more!

[Costa Del Fal]

I take it that on the NAE 12Z that the very last chart shows plenty of showers developing in Wales, The Midlands and Southern England.

Still unsure as to their thundery element though. GFS doesnt create an exciting scene at all.

Edited June 6, 2010 by Blizzards

[Ian Fergusson]

haha im just going by what netweather have said for my area between 4pm and 7pm they predicted 800 - 900 cape! wouldnt mind my own weather balloon to be honest!

Sunny here now good sign so that the convection can get going more!

Indeed! Yes, I guess that's via the GFS products....

You'll note how the GFS modelling of windfields at different levels is pretty good today across the UK. For example, check out the anvil flow off CB's very evident in parts of Herts and East Anglia at www.sat24.com/gb and you'll see they're blown largely northwards in the prevailing flow up at the tropopause.... then align this with the GFS 300 - 500hPa windfields.... versus the prevailing storm motion and the 700hPa fields.

Clearly a balloon would be a lot of fun, albeit not - in your case - if released from Watford into paths of the many airliners routing / holding via the VOR navigation beacons at Bovingdon and Brookmans Park....!!!

Edited June 6, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[Neilsouth]

No more storms here , decayed storm over us now with no strikes

[Tom D]

Looking at the radar you'd have thought I'd have at least heard some thunder, but no, not even a few spots of rain.

[Ian Fergusson]

I take it that on the NAE 12Z that the very last chart shows plenty of showers developing in Wales, The Midlands and Southern England.

Still unsure as to their thundery element though. GFS doesnt create an exciting scene at all.

Yes, but killed-off eastwards now as the transient ridging takes over. Vast improvement already here in Bristol: Beefy TCu's of only 25mins ago now replaced by very well capped Strato Cu and plenty of blue sky / late sunshine.

[Flash Elvis]

BANG!!

Just had the biggest downpour........one flash of lightening and that was it

Looks like more showerson there way, but nothing of any substance to hold a storm for a while

[saint]

Just missing out here on the large and heavy showers, but you can see the convection of them from here as they got North, very nice looking!

[Harry]

Significant development over Northern and Western Kent.

Currently I'm under quite a sloid blanket of mid level cloud, which is dampening the boundary layer convection considerably.

Alas, sod all for me! Here's a couple of shots just taken of those developments - unless there is something developing bbehind the house..

[Delta76]

Incidentally, the transient ridging and clearing skies that'll gradually ease eastwards this evening / tonight are now very well marked on vis-sat imagery.... some super evening sunshine into Bristol and environs now and those clearing skies evident into many adjacent districts too (as are the convective / T/S tops out east), if you check out latest EUMETSAT loop via www.sat24.com for example....

I reckon we do only play at it here judging by the explosive clouds down the Eastern Coast of Spain visible on the link.