General Storm Discussion Thread

[Tim B]

Rotation a little hard to make out since the quality ended up lower than I thought, could see it much better with the naked eye.

cloud1.wmv

That whole area was spinning, not just the part you can see go from right to left.

Then again false wall clouds and other formations can be seen spinning beneath storms that approach from that direction like this that span, rose and moved over the land very quickly as another storm approached last week.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Showers now losing intensity on the radar, I think there will be a lull now for a few hours but the forecast is for shower activity to increase in the early hours. Severe weather warning out until 8 o'clock for Northwest England. Would be interesting to hear what Nick F thinks will happen during the night in the warning regions.

Aaron

Some Heavy rain has just started where I am but your right the best of the action does look like its moving slowly east.

What area of Crewe are you from mate? Rain started here quite a bit before you it seems (Sydney area)

[Tim B]

Aye as I suspected the cold outflow and or the termination of ground heating has killed the rest of it off, fingers crossed for something a bit more substantial through tomorrow.

[r_dancing]

Is the cell likely to hit Manchester?

[SNOW GO]

Showers now losing intensity on the radar, I think there will be a lull now for a few hours but the forecast is for shower activity to increase in the early hours. Severe weather warning out until 8 o'clock for Northwest England. Would be interesting to hear what Nick F thinks will happen during the night in the warning regions.

Aaron

What area of Crewe are you from mate? Rain started here quite a bit before you it seems (Sydney area)

I am about 2 miles away from the centre out in Weston the rain however has now slowed down to drizzle however here after a very brief heavy spell with a few rumbles of thunder. I think the rain showers forecast for the early hours and tommorow will maybe be on the heavy side though.

Edited July 21, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Paul R]

Is the cell likely to hit Manchester?

Most likely. But it's weakening as it tootles its way North.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is the cell likely to hit Manchester?

What's left of it looks likely to yeah

[r_dancing]

What's left of it looks likely to yeah

Thanks. I just want enough overhead rumbles to get me out of the No Storms Club

[Darren Bown]

It's nothing more than light rain, however, there must be some perfect instability across the NW, in a very local area, for a severe warning to be issued for over the next 9 hours.

[Supertee]

Hi everyone, went out for a drive to the top of Ashworth Road in my home town of Heywood, Lancs. Its great for storm watching because you can see almost all of Greater Manchester. After taking some pics of the storm moving north over the region I set off home. From Ashworth Road I turned right onto Edenfield Road heading towards Rochdale, I stopped again when something caught my eye to my right(looking south). There were 2 funnel clouds no more than 1-2 miles away. It could be possible that 1 of these touched down, but because of the terrain around where I was its difficult to say. Dazmaster, you should know where I am talking about. Has anyone else seen anything approx where I was? Anyway I did manage to film this so I will get on with uploading it and see what everyone thinks.

[Darren Bown]

Hmm, seems to have reintensified over the last 10 mins, still only moderate, with a heavy bit in the SE of the cell

[MikeUpjohn]

Hi, also want to be out of the no storms club, and the light rain has just hit us now. I keep reading about these severe warnings for North West England until the morning, so what is the chance that Macclesfield is going to see some form of thunderstorm tonight? I've really got all fingers crossed, as I'm beginning to give up on 2010 as a stormy year!

Cheers,

Mike.

[r_dancing]

Hmmmm looking outside it seems to of stalled

[MikeUpjohn]

Rain becoming slowly heavier here.

[Paul R]

Rain becoming slowly heavier here.

Where abouts are you?

Edit: Just read further up the thread, noticed where you're from.

Edited July 21, 2010 by Paul R

[SNOW GO]

Granada News now saying Met office warning of localised very heavy downpours overnight for the North West.

Edited July 21, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Lewis]

Looking good tomorrow for England and wales, midlands, west yorkshire, east yorkshire in particular

[Paul R]

Cells building in South Merseyside, near to Liverpool Airport it seems, moving North.

[Lynxus]

Yay , Estofex have a warning for tomorrow.

Central British Isles

Undrneath the through centre, weak tornadoes are not ruled out given weak vertical wind shear and quite good low-level buoyancy and convergence.

[sbiggs]

Yay , Estofex have a warning for tomorrow.

Central British Isles

Undrneath the through centre, weak tornadoes are not ruled out given weak vertical wind shear and quite good low-level buoyancy and convergence.

They've taken out EA from the main warning area, and in only in the weak warning area. Does EA not have that much risk anymore? NW and other sites still say theres a big risk in my area

[Harry]

This is my rather bitter view but also realistic view of storm chances tomorrow...based on CAPE and LI levels, but also the clear CZ likely to set up across the Midlands, I'd be very disappointed tomorrow if I were in the red zone and didn't at the least see some very nice Cbs, or here thunder/see lightning. Storms in this view seem almost inevitable based on current charts, with many other areas of England and Wales at risk from at least heavy showers or thunderstorms.

Edited July 21, 2010 by Harry

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes looks dead on its feet here for tomorrow, just too far north and the best shot at some downpours looks to be before dinner time.

Looks to be one of those frustrating days where I watch showers form just to the south of here then move away.

Aaron

Edited July 21, 2010 by CreweCold

[A.J]

Yes, light surface winds and surface convergence could help to develop funnels or weak short-lived tornadoes - the risk of this, I think, looks greatest from around Lincs/Norfolk through to central-southern Midlands and towards SE Wales. Reason being that convergenze zone will coincide with period of peak instability across these areas, so have the greatest chance seeing spinning updrafts and funnels. Minimal risk of organised thunderstorms given lack of vertical wind shear.

Providing of course that the NMM & 18zGFS are spot on....I'd expect some subtle changes on the next runs given the somewhat active nature of our weather atm...not criticizing your post in anyway, just making an observation <_<

[Harry]

Yes, light surface winds and surface convergence could help to develop funnels or weak short-lived tornadoes - the risk of this, I think, looks greatest from around Lincs/Norfolk through to central-southern Midlands and towards SE Wales. Reason being that convergenze zone will coincide with period of peak instability across these areas, so have the greatest chance seeing spinning updrafts and funnels. Minimal risk of organised thunderstorms given lack of vertical wind shear.

Hmm...not sure I agree with the last comment - yes storms are unlikely to be organised in the classic sense, but I think there is certainly potential for any cells, more so along the CZ, to keep active for a number of hours, and ultimately organising into a line of storms.

Will be interesting to see how tomorrow plays out...but YET AGAIN, it wont include the SE, and neither will Friday whereby all our opportunity appears to have vanished <_<

[Evening thunder]

This is turning into some kind of ugly joke. Tomorrow was looking the best day for a while here, and today it steadily downgraded for my small area as the GFS picks up on the all interesting weather deflector that surrounds me...

http://www.netweathe...21/ukcapeli.png <_< Nicely wrapped around my location with me in a hole.. Hope this changes a bit by morning.

Looks like I'll be in the no storms club for quite a while...

Edited July 21, 2010 by StormMad26