Winter 2010/2011

[Met4Cast]

The La Nina is really becoming very impressive right now, will be interesting to see how everything behaves. IMO we are probably in a similar position globally to where we were in the 50s in terms of how everything is evolving with regards to the PDO and the strong +ve AMO.

The key question is whether the La Nina induces a mid 70s/98-00 and 07-08 type pattern or whether it causes a mid 50s type set-up.

I'm going to keep my expectations low for this winter, because typically strong La Nina's combined with the QBO state we are in don't tend to bode all that well for our winters.

I was under the impression that we were in a -QBO at the moment? Surely thats good news for the winter months?

[Glacier Point]

The La Nina is really becoming very impressive right now, will be interesting to see how everything behaves. IMO we are probably in a similar position globally to where we were in the 50s in terms of how everything is evolving with regards to the PDO and the strong +ve AMO.

The key question is whether the La Nina induces a mid 70s/98-00 and 07-08 type pattern or whether it causes a mid 50s type set-up.

I'm going to keep my expectations low for this winter, because typically strong La Nina's combined with the QBO state we are in don't tend to bode all that well for our winters.

The tropics are dead and all atmospheric indicators are trending downward - indeed accumulated cyclone energy is now at a 30 yr low across the Northern Hemisphere. That, combined with the tanking SOI, strong Nina and very low angular momentum (strong evidence of coupling of the ocean and atmosphere) weakens any comparisons in the last 20 years. I think that the strength of the forcing in the Pacific is going to override whatever state the AMO is in. 1970s style Nina for me - which isn't necessarily that bad.

[Weather-history]

1970s style Nina for me - which isn't necessarily that bad.

They were mild winters and one of them was the mildest on record. Not sure a cold weather fan would agree!

[SteveB]

1979 would do nicely

[chionomaniac]

I read somewhere that a positive AMO is likely to influence the NAO to be negative. Has anyone come across this before? With us in the middle of a positive AMO phase is this likely to exert an influence this winter?

[johnholmes]

They were mild winters and one of them was the mildest on record. Not sure a cold weather fan would agree!

yes, only 10 months out of the 30 winter months below the long term average, like you say one very mild and of course 1 very cold winter.

[Weather-history]

yes, only 10 months out of the 30 winter months below the long term average, like you say one very mild and of course 1 very cold winter.

Yes and that very cold one didn't concur with a La Nina event as well. All the La Nina winters of the 1970s were mild.

[Heisenberg]

hello everyone.....

I have been reading about La Nina and getting very conflicting reports of this event. Some are saying this will cause a harsh freezing winter with lots of snow (yay) and others that it will be mild and wet....can someone pls tell me which is correct. NB I am a total novice but willing to learn

[Radiating Dendrite]

hello everyone.....

I have been reading about La Nina and getting very conflicting reports of this event. Some are saying this will cause a harsh freezing winter with lots of snow (yay) and others that it will be mild and wet....can someone pls tell me which is correct. NB I am a total novice but willing to learn

Toss a coin...........to be honest I don't think anyone really knows.

[johnholmes]

hello everyone.....

I have been reading about La Nina and getting very conflicting reports of this event. Some are saying this will cause a harsh freezing winter with lots of snow (yay) and others that it will be mild and wet....can someone pls tell me which is correct. NB I am a total novice but willing to learn

welcome to Net Wx

the short answer is no one knows, various ideas with various reasons have been put forward.

Try looking in the technical thread as some of the posters in their are quite good at explaining their reasons for what may happen down the line. There is also a list of accronyms within the Learning Area of Net Wx and at least 2 threads which attempt to explain some of the terms used.

the link below will open up the whole section - enjoy

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

[blitzen]

I read somewhere that a positive AMO is likely to influence the NAO to be negative. Has anyone come across this before? With us in the middle of a positive AMO phase is this likely to exert an influence this winter?

Edited October 5, 2010 by Blitzen

[chionomaniac]

Might this be of some help C?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation

Thanks, Blitzen. I didn't explain myself very well. I know what the AMO is, what I was looking for was a paper that suggests an inverse relationship to the NAO.

c

[MR EXTREMES]

70s cet but because of the jet streams holidays south i will bet against mild winter.

1970/71...13.3c…AVERAGE

1971/72...14.8c...MILD

1972/73…14.6c...MILD

1973/74…16.2c…MILD

1974/75…19.3c…VERY MILD

1975/76…15.7c...MILD

1976/77...10c...COLD

1977/78...12.3c…AVERAGE

1978/79...4.7c...SEVERE

[cooling climate]

I wonder how the tabloids would react to a headline like this. Can you imagine what the express and

mail would print.

Fight brewing between Polish and Russian forecasters over a potentially record cold winter ahead

Posted on October 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.

Russian winter. Image from englishrussia.com – click

From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

04 October, 2010, 22:20

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

[glasgow-guy]

I wonder how the tabloids would react to a headline like this. Can you imagine what the express and

mail would print.

Fight brewing between Polish and Russian forecasters over a potentially record cold winter ahead

Posted on October 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.

Russian winter. Image from englishrussia.com – click

From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

04 October, 2010, 22:20

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

I love these story's telling of almost biblical winter predictions to come but the devil of course will be in the detail? what weather models are they looking at to make this biblical determination

it will be interesting to see if they are right

[Heisenberg]

I love these story's telling of almost biblical winter predictions to come but the devil of course will be in the detail? what weather models are they looking at to make this biblical determination

it will be interesting to see if they are right

Time to move to Russia then

[blitzen]

Thanks, Blitzen. I didn't explain myself very well. I know what the AMO is, what I was looking for was a paper that suggests an inverse relationship to the NAO.

c

There is an annual graph re inverse relationship at the bottom of page 13 of this paper C which might be useful. (Sorry I don't know how to isolate the page.)

[kold weather]

Ah dear silly season has began globally I see...those forecasts will bust, there just isn't enough cold in the Arctic to beat the little ice age winters, even if synoptics were to produce an extreme set-up for Russia...

As for the AMO/NAO relationship, I wasn't aware there was one that works like that but what does tend to happen is -ve NAO winters tend to allow the tropics and also the northern waters to really warm up because of the weaker subtropical high pressure belt and that eventually allows a +ve AMO to strengthen. The perfect example of that occured last winter actually.

[Met4Cast]

Ah dear silly season has began globally I see...those forecasts will bust, there just isn't enough cold in the Arctic to beat the little ice age winters, even if synoptics were to produce an extreme set-up for Russia...

As for the AMO/NAO relationship, I wasn't aware there was one that works like that but what does tend to happen is -ve NAO winters tend to allow the tropics and also the northern waters to really warm up because of the weaker subtropical high pressure belt and that eventually allows a +ve AMO to strengthen. The perfect example of that occured last winter actually.

The CFS seems to have downgraded the cold for this winter today.

[weather eater]

Amongst all the silly season talk, gulf stream shut down etc, is this post on the model thread from GP, I would suggest it could be far more relevant to the winter ahead. If this says the same then the prospect of an interesting winter lies ahead.

Just to throw this one into the mix,

September's NAO value was negative and that makes 9 months on the bounce with negative values. First time since records started in 1950 that this has been the case.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[johnholmes]

The CFS seems to have downgraded the cold for this winter today.

not too surprising Daniel-its almost as variable as GFS is at times.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

not too surprising Daniel-its almost as variable as GFS is at times.

Still below average from Nov to Feb John,as a cold fand i'll take that right now.

Although as you correctly say,a very unreliable (as you would expect with long range tools)model.

[ZONE 51]

I wonder how the tabloids would react to a headline like this. Can you imagine what the express and

mail would print.

Fight brewing between Polish and Russian forecasters over a potentially record cold winter ahead

Posted on October 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.

Russian winter. Image from englishrussia.com – click

From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

04 October, 2010, 22:20

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

[gottolovethisweather]

I just love that image of frozen Britain, I had already put a copy of it on my website!

What date does the image relate to, I assume it was 6th January 2010, does anybody know?

Cheers

STORMBOY

Edited October 5, 2010 by STORMBOY

[Thundery wintry showers]

Considering the signals I've seen so far, this appears unlikely. We may well end up with a cold winter by recent standards, but it's unlikely to be on the scale of last winter, let alone the coldest for 1,000 years.