Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Zakos]

These are the best synoptics I have ever seen for November. The consistency aswell is remarkable, I cannot see how this can be averted. I see a extreme and prolonged cold spell form Friday 26th onwards, causing widespread Heavy Snow.

[Aceman]

These are the best synoptics I have ever seen for November. The consistency aswell is remarkable, I cannot see how this can be averted. I see a extreme and prolonged cold spell form Friday 26th onwards, causing widespread Heavy Snow.

crikey, sounds very interesting. can enyone enlighten on how sea level pressure effects our weather?

[Terminal Moraine]

These are the best synoptics I have ever seen for November. The consistency aswell is remarkable, I cannot see how this can be averted. I see a extreme and prolonged cold spell form Friday 26th onwards, causing widespread Heavy Snow.

Well, the synoptics are looking good but it's a leap of faith to suggest extreme and prolonged cold with widespread heavy snow. The current charts at that range suggest cold by day and frosts at night with the chance of snow showers over high ground and eastern coasts. Projected temperatures on lower ground are on the wrong side of marginal by some distance to allow widespread heavy snow although of course if the cold does become entrenched it could be a different matter.

Better not to get ahead of yourself at this stage though.

[Eugene]

I cannot see how this can be averted.

I cannot see how a below average spell can be averted either the evolution to northerly blocking looks pretty solid, i wouldnt go around using the word extreme yet though as extreme cold in late November/early December is rare in the UK as the cold pooling isnt quite there yet in europe and even -10C 850 hPa air doesn't guarantee extreme widespread cold i guess you mean ice days by that, actually ice days are far more common under less good synoptics like a slack southeasterly with a high just to our southeast/east or HP directly above us after a cold feed and a cold inversion setting up at the surface.

[Stormyking]

These are the best synoptics I have ever seen for November. The consistency aswell is remarkable, I cannot see how this can be averted. I see a extreme and prolonged cold spell form Friday 26th onwards, causing widespread Heavy Snow.

Wow yes please, I hope it still there by the time we get to that time lol, I doubt it will but never know. Im in a big snow mood at the moment so fingers crossed

[johnholmes]

Well, the synoptics are looking good but it's a leap of faith to suggest extreme and prolonged cold with widespread heavy snow. The current charts at that range suggest cold by day and frosts at night with the chance of snow showers over high ground and eastern coasts. Projected temperatures on lower ground are on the wrong side of marginal by some distance to allow widespread heavy snow although of course if the cold does become entrenched it could be a different matter.

Better not to get ahead of yourself at this stage though.

sensible post as always TM-the more excitable amongst you should take note!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sent final tuning off to Roger, LRF to be released when he is next online.

BFTP

[Isolated Frost]

Sent final tuning off to Roger, LRF to be released when he is next online.

BFTP

Oooo, yes!

[West is Best]

Yes just to clarify: my 'you bet' was referring to whether it is possible to have proper cold weather at the end of any November, not referring to this one in particular. November 1985 still sticks in my memory - gosh the second half was cold.

The synoptics do look very enticing though at the moment I must say.

[Terminal Moraine]

Yes just to clarify: my 'you bet' was referring to whether it is possible to have proper cold weather at the end of any November, not referring to this one in particular. November 1985 still sticks in my memory - gosh the second half was cold.

The synoptics do look very enticing though at the moment I must say.

1878 was another one, not that I remember it but it did lead into a very cold December, and a very oold and snowy winter overall.

That however was a different era and I'm certainly not suggesting similar will happen this year.

I'd quite happily take a re-run of 1985/86 as February 1986 was an exceptional month here but before I get too enthusiastic I'm mindful of GP's winter forecast which suggests a cold start and a possible dry and mild February.

I'll be very interested to see what BFTP's and Roger Smith's forecast comes up with.

[Snowyowl9]

Good to see the big posters back on here winter... sypnotics are back.

A rerun of January 1985 to March 1986 would be even better the best year of weather you could ever get.

[Zakos]

I am not implying extreme cold meaning -30, Im saying that it will be far below average, and for a long amount of time.

Perhaps the word "Severe" Would have been more appropriate.

[Northern Strath]

Looking at the wonderful winter snow set-ups thread. If we are approaching a possible Omega blocking set-up we can expect the pro-longed cold, the frosts etc. Though with the Met office still going for below average precipitaion for this period, is there really much chance of snowfalls (of note) in the approaching period? and if so where? Would be looking for wandering westerlies like we experienced this week to get the big stuff?

Good to see the big posters back on here winter... sypnotics are back.

A rerun of January 1985 to March 1986 would be even better the best year of weather you could ever get.

I agree Snowyowl, there was a disappointing a lack of synoptic discussion for a wee bit A re-run of Jan 85 would be fabulous. BIG snowfalls up here and indeed widespread accross the uk, great stuff

[slater]

Hi all, seems to be getting really exciting,as been searching all weather websites and all seem to be going for a really cold spell even worse then the last two winters!!! but until Norwich hits a low of -8 at night for several nights and below freezing during days then i will be convinced that mega cold winter is truely here. Since i lived in Norwich (2001) recorded a low of -7 on the 6th jan 2009 never got to that last winter (-6) Still think the North Sea will play a big part in this as its still warm at the moment 10c six miles out to sea i do believe. Watch this space!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kippure]

1878 was another one, not that I remember it but it did lead into a very cold December, and a very oold and snowy winter overall.

That however was a different era and I'm certainly not suggesting similar will happen this year.

I'd quite happily take a re-run of 1985/86 as February 1986 was an exceptional month here but before I get too enthusiastic I'm mindful of GP's winter forecast which suggests a cold start and a possible dry and mild February.

I'll be very interested to see what BFTP's and Roger Smith's forecast comes up with.

I cant wait for bftp.s and rogers forecast, hope it is better then last year

[Rollo]

The projected charts do look great but I am with TM and advise caution,not only has the cold not started yet but I advise everyone to think back over the years at the number of disappointments we have suffered when all was looking rosy,we must wait quite a few more days and if the charts come within a reliable timeframe then at least those on high ground will see some of the white stuff,some like myself at 200ft asl will have to wait somewhat longer.

[damianslaw]

The poster who said the synoptics being shown later in the month would not deliver low level snow should look back at what happened in late Nov 05 when we had similiar upper level temps and many places at very low levels saw snow cover - indeed the SW normally the mildest part of the country saw snow.

Indeed we saw snow in late Oct 08 with similiar uppers, the synoptics would certainly deliver threat of low level snow showers Imagine.

[Bristawl Si]

The poster who said the synoptics being shown later in the month would not deliver low level snow should look back at what happened in late Nov 05 when we had similiar upper level temps and many places at very low levels saw snow cover - indeed the SW normally the mildest part of the country saw snow.

Indeed we saw snow in late Oct 08 with similiar uppers, the synoptics would certainly deliver threat of low level snow showers Imagine.

Remember late Nov 05 v.well - me and the wife went to Torquay for a long weekend and on the way down the M5 the Blackdown hills in Zummerzet were still covered in snow - in BTL earlier that week we'd had snow for 1st time in November for a long time - in fact the run of winters previously had been virtually snow free.

So i thought "With snow this early the winter 05/06 was going to be a snow cracker!"

How wrong i was - the rest of the winter was virtually snow-free in BTL.

A cold and snowy end to November doesn't mean the rest of the winter wil be the same. Alternatively, a wet mild November like last year does not mean it's going to stay mild and wet for the rest of winter - and it didn't.

Quite frankly, whatever happens over the next few weeks leading up to Xmas will not necessarily set the pattern for the rest of winter 10/11.

Edited November 14, 2010 by Bristle boy

[SP1986]

I suggest it's just a little early to be calling this one correct. The models do show a cold spell, however it is November, and although November can deliver, it will rarely be severe. As with the nature of northeasterlies it is unlikely in those circumstances (although not impossible), there would be a countrywide snowfall event. Also it is possible that northeasterly winds may stir up the air to prevent air frosts from forming away from sheltered areas. So although this is the first of a tantalising look (perhaps) into winter synoptics, it will not be quite as severe as some think. I suspect anything wintry will please the majority though so, it seems ideal.

[Snowfan50]

I know this is off topic but does anybody have a chart of the day it snowed in the south west in november 2005. Thanks

[Thundery wintry showers]

Does anyone remember mid-November 1998? Around the 10th-13th November the BBC forecasts were suggesting that we would get an easterly as the main track of depressions headed off to the south, and Scandinavia and Russia were colder than average at the time:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981112.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00219981112.gif

...and therefore an airflow from the east or north-east was likely to bring a mix of sunshine and wintry showers, and there were certainly at least a couple of forecasts that hinted at this. This suggests to me that the models had actually been suggesting some kind of easterly at pretty close range, for the BBC wouldn't "stick their necks out" like that unless the Met Office had reasonably high confidence (remembering how the Beeb rightly refused to do this with the near-easterly in early Feb 2001).

In the end, we ended up with a weak trough over Scandinavia which brought in a northerly instead, and our side of the Arctic was warmer than average so the northerly was not particularly potent, though it did bring scattered wintry showers to NE Scotland and NE England:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00219981116.gif

A spell of below-average temperatures ensued and persisted through to the 21st/22nd, but the continental air stayed away to the east. We are in quite a similar situation at the moment- we have a near-certainty of extensive northern blocking and below-average temperatures but always the possibility of an outcome similar to November 1998 with a cold but mainly dry spell of weather and rarely cold enough for lowland snow. I'm not saying that this will happen, but having seen plenty of examples where cold north-easterlies did come off in late November, it's only fair to "balance the books" by showing an example of where they didn't.

As for November 2005, you're probably thinking of that full-on northerly outbreak which, unusually, hit western areas more strongly than eastern areas:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120051125.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00220051125.gif

[swales]

I know this is off topic but does anybody have a chart of the day it snowed in the south west in november 2005. Thanks

There is a case study on the MO website about it here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/casestudy_bodmin.html

Somebody may find you the charts you want.

[knocker]

There is a case study on the MO website about it here: http://www.metoffice...udy_bodmin.html

Somebody may find you the charts you want.

[bobbydog]

These are the best synoptics I have ever seen for November. The consistency aswell is remarkable, I cannot see how this can be averted. I see a extreme and prolonged cold spell form Friday 26th onwards, causing widespread Heavy Snow.

correct me if i'm wrong (and i may well be!) but dont the 850hpa temps also have to be -5 or below for snow? if that is the case then for this forecast period they are not, therefore snow is unlikely

[Cymro]

correct me if i'm wrong (and i may well be!) but dont the 850hpa temps also have to be -5 or below for snow? if that is the case then for this forecast period they are not, therefore snow is unlikely

Not from an easterly no. Temperatures can be as high as 0 and snow is possible from a northerly then yes but not an easterly because the air is generally drier hence cooler regardless of the uppers.