Ireland - Regional Weather Discussion

[stormforce 10]

Its interesting how wet our autumns have been for the last while, I definitely think we are in a cycle of wet autumns and dryish winters/springs.

That said I am fed up with the amount of rain we have had can the taps be turned off please

oh please let the rain stop. some sunshine please. 4 days of rain now river burst its banks. horriblehoorible.

this looks interesting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Edited October 11, 2011 by stormforce 10

[Rocheydub]

Boring bloody miserable weather.

I do like the look of that chart I have to say... Fingers crossed GFS grabs some of that action... Very early though!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Imagine this amount of precip during the winter months when its colder and we have more chance of snow!! Hope your well stalked up Pomeroy for this winter as if i remember you had it pretty bad last year!! Think we should start putting up some of our pictures from last year just to wet our appetite! I remember you put one up of your car with about a foot of snow on top of it! lol! I have attached a picture of our first really heavy snowfal on the 6th December last year! It brought the roads to a standstill!!

Oh God how could I forget about that!

How do I upload pictures again??

Anyway Ronan I have my own free range eggs on the go now and I just need to harvest the remain vegetables then I will be good to go!!!

oh please let the rain stop. some sunshine please. 4 days of rain now river burst its banks. horriblehoorible.

this looks interesting.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

OOOOHHHH time to bulk up on the coal me thinks.

What ever happened to our winter guessing competition guys and gals??

I am going for 1st air frost on the 18/10

First lying snow 30/10

first Ice Days 14 - 29/12

Edited October 11, 2011 by Pomeroysnow

[stormforce 10]

well a much brighter day with plenty of blue sky.

yep lets get this competition up and running.

right im thinking october 20th for first air frost going by ecm chart if it verifies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

slack winds, after a cold north westerly feed, hopefully clear skies, and temps could get below freezing.

first lying snow, mid to late november

first ice day 17th - 30th december.

[ronan]

First frost 25th October and i reckon we should see a bit of the white stuff between 20th November & 30th November. Things have really got going early on Netweather this year!! Is it all the media hype thats doing it or is there something in FI that's getting everybody going?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

To coin a famous phrase FI has got them creaming their pants

I'd be happy with a cold December as long as we can build some snowmen unlike last years powdery studd where you couldn't build a snowmouse!!!

Come on Born from the Void, Rochey dub,Baltic Regions etc, its time to pull the finger out and put your money were your mouth is give us your pedictions and bring it on

[Rocheydub]

I am going for 1st air frost: 22/10

First lying snow 12/11

first Ice Days 29/12 - 5/01

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Sorry if you have seen this already folks, I have borrowed it from Irish weather online, its the same person as Rodger J Smith who posts on netweather, make of it what you will......

IWO Winter 2011-2012 Forecast For Ireland

By Peter ODonnell - Thu Oct 13, 4:12 pm..

Peter O’Donnell is a Canada-based climatologist who specialises in providing long range weather forecasts for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Peter also provides the daily Long Range Forecast For Ireland. This is Peter’s second winter forecast for Irish Weather Online (last year’s forecast may be viewed here).

Methodology

This seasonal forecast is based on Peter O’Donnell’s research into natural variations in atmospheric patterns using an extensive data base on both monthly and daily time scales.

Peter’s research began in North America around 1980 and was extended to Europe as part of global modelling efforts, with the major advance being a forecast and detailed research program that began in 2005. As a result, this is the seventh winter forecast that Peter has issued for the U.K. and Ireland. Global patterns and solar activity are factored into the forecasts, but the primary basis remains a numerical model of temperature variations that can be connected to index values for pattern types.

The model considers various factors that theoretically link the complex solar system magnetic field (which could be described as “space weather” or the state of the solar wind compared to average at various points in time. Then, using a theory that links the solar system magnetic field to earth’s upper atmosphere, the model derives a forecast of atmospheric variations from normal. A third and very significant step is to model in an independent set of variations based on lunar-atmospheric tidal effects.

The main point to keep in mind is that the forecast model is basically the sum of many small variations which, if they existed alone, would produce only slight variations in the weather day to day or year to year. But if there are twenty or more such variables all interacting, then the cumulative effects can become considerable. This particular seasonal forecast is fine tuned from “re-analysis” or a look back at recent seasonal forecast efforts and feedback into the research model from a study of timing or intensity errors.

Unlike some in the long-range forecasting business, we make no elaborate claims of high accuracy but we believe that over the past five years this method has produced some of the best results, for example, the severe cold spell of last December.

Overview for winter 2011-12

IWO Winter Forecast summary. Average temperature explanation below

MEAN WINTER TEMPERATURES – “Normal monthly temperatures in central Ireland are near 7 deg in November, 5 to 6 in December, 4 to 5 in January and February, and back up around 6 to 7 by March. That of course is the average of night and day, and the range is usually about 6 degrees or so, which for example means that an average mid-November day has a high near 10 C and a low near 4 C. Our forecasts show the expected departure, known as an anomaly, relative to these averages which are known as normals even though only a few days out of each month actually come in right on the average values.”

From a starting point in mid-October, we consider the five month period November to March, with “climatological winter” defined as being the months of December, January and February, whereas “meteorological winter” can, as we saw last year, fall in any of the five months in the Irish climate.

As is now becoming clearer on reliable time frame global forecast models, late October could be a lot colder than the past three weeks have been. That colder trend may fade out for part of early NOVEMBER with another mild spell, but colder weather with some snow may then return in the second half of November. In general this is not expected to be as dramatic as last year, and the severe cold is not expected to continue through most of DECEMBER; instead, there may be roughly equal spells of mild and cold weather with possibly a rather stormy theme and a wide variety of daily weather types that will include some strong winds, some heavy rainfalls and some snow or ice. The output for the Christmas to New Year period suggests a milder interval after some rather cold days about a week before Christmas.

JANUARY may be “the” month of the winter as our model forecast suggests some much colder than average weather through most of the month. The details may include a few brief milder turns which could involve snow to rain type breakdowns, but there are indications of cold spells with northeast or east winds that are often associated with snow in eastern counties, and in particular around Meath and Dublin. as well as Wicklow. The lunar components suggest that the week starting around 8th January could become stormy and cold enough for snow to be dominant by then, although the south could remain in more mixed precipitation. The greatest depth of cold, suggesting higher pressure building up from the east, should come a little after mid-January. More snow seems likely in the period that has delivered in some recent winters, around end of January and first few days of February.

The output then suggests a steady warming trend to produce a rather mild FEBRUARY once that early cold and snow comes and goes, and that scenario suggests some risk of flooding with the thaw and melt. Otherwise February may become a rather settled and almost early spring-like month with some of the model temperature output well above normal.

MARCH looks rather chilly especially towards the end, and could involve a minor return to winter or near winter conditions, so in terms of a seasonal “overview” the dominant theme might be variable but a colder winter than many in the “modern” period, perhaps a winter more typical of the colder climate periods of the past, but either not as extreme as last year, or if everything comes together just right (or wrong, depending on your point of view), a January that may remind us of the December of last winter, with some previews of that in mid-December. Wishing to remain a bit conservative, the monthly temperature forecasts relative to normal are set as:

NOVEMBER: -1 deg (variable but trending cold)

DECEMBER: 0 deg (normal but variable)

JANUARY: -2 deg (cold, potentially colder to -4 deg)

FEBRUARY: +2 deg (mild)

MARCH: -1 deg (cool)

Precipitation forecasting tends to be error-prone just because of greater regional complexity, but with so many changes in regime, it would be sensible to expect some intervals of heavy precipitation and also some two to three week dry spells. Over the research period, winter full and new moons tend to be more stormy than background in the eastern Atlantic, and we’ll explore some of the research model details in that regard as we move through the season. The full moon around 10-11 December should produce a significant storm (probably the second of a set) likely moving northwest to southeast given the expected setup, so that could be a time for one of the winter’s stronger wind events. The new moon around Christmas is embedded in a mild spell so we are expecting either a foggy inversion with the storm track well to the north, or possibly a mild storm running well north of Connacht around that time, and then there could be a northerly blast to follow around New Years, followed by a volatile period of strong west to northwest flow.

The January full moon energy peak 8th-10th coming around a time indicated to be turning much colder could be the trigger for the most significant weather event of the winter which could be a stormy period involving some heavy snowfalls. Later on, the new moon period seems more likely to drive the storm track well south towards Iberia. If there is a secondary track closer to Ireland this may become a time for snow or ice storms (20th-24th). There are secondary energy peaks that fall roughly five days before these main lunar energy peaks, which sets up an uneven modulation of five and nine or ten days in the likely pressure oscillation, that could show up in a tendency for one week to be settled, then the next week stormy, as a sort of background rhythm to the winter season. The settled weeks are likely to be also the coldest until February, but then the mildest as the flow becomes more southerly or southwesterly. And it appears from the numerical output that these settled periods will tend to fall around mid-months.

Conclusions and Updates

With this time scale, the details are bound to change to some extent and the main point of adding them to basic trends is to give the reader a sense of the range of weather types to be expected. To some extent, timing these exactly is not really the main point for those who want to plan their business ahead of time — the more conventional forms of forecasting will lead into the active periods, but this overview may give you some idea what to expect in general and we would stress the menu being more important than the order of service. That might not work for a restaurant but the current “state of the art” in seasonal forecasting is frankly well short of being what we could call a fully developed science, no matter what various gurus say in their press releases. For this forecaster, the stimulus of trying to provide some details has a positive effect on the research, and gives us a foundation that is better than just a vague outlook as was and is the custom with large agency forecasts.

Winter 2011-12 looks like being quite an active winter and not lacking in wintry weather types, although not entirely dominated by them either. Readers in more isolated and upland locations might be well advised to have extra supplies on hand at a fairly early stage of the winter in case the early opportunities for cold dig in, but we think your main challenges will come in January this year. In any case, updates to a long range forecast make even more sense than updates to a shorter time scale and so we don’t take a “live or die” approach to this early call, as patterns develop and interact, we may well have an adjusted outlook closer to the actual winter season. Not surprisingly, the outlook for the U.K. will tend to mirror this forecast for Ireland but a separate forecast for the U.K. will become available early next week.

– Peter O’Donnell for Irish Weather Online

Email your questions to podonnell@irishweatheronline.com

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Another gray drizzly day - surely not I hear you say!!!

[ronan]

Same in Derry Pomeroy but its to clear through soon enough!! I'm really dying for some cold and snow! If you think back we haven't seen any snow from last December! Normally we would have seen something in January or February but this year it was non existent!! We might wee something wintry over the next few weeks!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Lets hope we get some of this again!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Anywho, time for the competition thing mentioned in the summer.

Here's a list of potential questions

First Snow Location & Date

First Ice Day Location & Date

Maximum & Minimum Xmas Day

First <10C Day across all of Ireland

First <5C Day across all of Ireland

First <5C Night across all of Ireland

First <0C Night across all of Ireland

Overall Lowest Minimum & Location

Overall Lowest Maximum & Location

First -5C and Location

First -10C and Location

I imagine it's pointless adding in first frost as that will happen this week and people won't have time to enter. Shall we have it as a points system? We could also have comps for individual months if people like?

Also, for the first <10C Day and others like that, it's for every station to be below 10C, not the average.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Anywho, time for the competition thing mentioned in the summer.

Here's a list of potential questions

First Snow Location & Date

First Ice Day Location & Date

Maximum & Minimum Xmas Day

First <10C Day across all of Ireland

First <5C Day across all of Ireland

First <5C Night across all of Ireland

First <0C Night across all of Ireland

Overall Lowest Minimum & Location

Overall Lowest Maximum & Location

First -5C and Location

First -10C and Location

I imagine it's pointless adding in first frost as that will happen this week and people won't have time to enter. Shall we have it as a points system? We could also have comps for individual months if people like?

Also, for the first <10C Day and others like that, it's for every station to be below 10C, not the average.

Ok Born just to clarify does the <5 etc mean -5 or just 5C

[BornFromTheVoid]

It means less than or lower than -5C.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

It means less than or lower than -5C.

Oh the -10 at every station will be a tough one especially with any stations near the coast, that will influence my thinking then!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Oh the -10 at every station will be a tough one especially with any stations near the coast, that will influence my thinking then!!!

Sorry, I got a bit mixed up there. The <5C just means less than 5C! There will be a "-" before anything below zero.

Also the -5C and -10C ones mean -5C or below and -10C or below.

Apologies for that!

[stormforce 10]

a wild morning here. strong blustery winds with heavy rain, sometimes torrential. and much cooler.

today and tonight could be very exciting, with temps set to plummet this afternoon, a wintry mix could be witnessed, possibly even some snow on the hill tops according to met eireann. a few colder nights to come.

first frost by wednesday night?

[peterf]

starting to wind up here now.

[stormforce 10]

i think the first snowfall could be today up the glenshane pass going by met eirann.

[Rocheydub]

first frost by wednesday night?

Looking like that!

[stormforce 10]

flooding torrential rain here with violent winds. never seen anything like this. 5mm rain in last 5 mins. phenomenal.

right ok this is unreal,

outside temp was 11.4c at 12:51hrs now outside temp is 6.7c at present.

a temp drop of 4.7c in 17 minutes.

the rain is still torrential. flooding is gonna be a real issue now.

ok temp now 6.5c.

temp now 6.3c.

Edited October 17, 2011 by stormforce 10

[Rocheydub]

Looking at the radar (on met.ie) there... Wow, some deep red colours! And it's heading east. Should be in Dublin within the hour I reckon. Violent gusts here, under blue skies!

14.3 C and 1002hpa. Feels a lot colder though!

[ronan]

It really is a miserable old day out there!! How likely do yous think the chances are of snow on the Glenshane later? It would nearly be worth a drive up there later to see that or maybe first thing tomorrow morning! If there was snow it would be the earliest that i have ever seen snow.

[stormforce 10]

It really is a miserable old day out there!! How likely do yous think the chances are of snow on the Glenshane later? It would nearly be worth a drive up there later to see that or maybe first thing tomorrow morning! If there was snow it would be the earliest that i have ever seen snow.

hi ronan theres a real chance a few flakes could fall up the glenshane. temps are dropping like a stone.

temp now 6.1c

temp is now 5.9c and the rain is still hammering down.

[ronan]

Right we have sleet on Derry with the odd snow flake thrown in!! I was sad enough to go out to the car and video it on the windscreen! Lol! Well it was more to prove that i wasn't lying! Lol! Just gonna upload it now! So if there's sleet here there's bound to be snow higher up!