Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Right just spoke to my neighbour whose got weather measuring equipment in his back garden. Right now the temp is 26degrees, 60% humidity, CAPE of 600 and LI of -1. He says along with those readings and the charts he just printed off, it should be storming right now. Clear skies and cirrus

Presuming the netweather radar overlay is correct and current (Paul please correct me if im wrong), cape and li values for our area are no where near those values. I'm in Strood and 23.4°C on my station but we dont have the convection going for any storms to initiate (which by the radar overlay would be right - no instability)

[Coast]

Sferics showing across the whole of the NW peninsula of France and moving toward the Channel Islands.

Courtesy GYWeather

NW Extra radar showing the storm moving up form France but not with as much sferic content.

[Lauren]

Presuming the netweather radar overlay is correct and current (Paul please correct me if im wrong), cape and li values for our area are no where near those values. I'm in Strood and 23.4°C on my station but we dont have the convection going for any storms to initiate (which by the radar overlay would be right - no instability)

Whereabouts in Strood are you? You could be sitting down the road from me, how weird!

When I see him I'll ask if he's calibrated it properly.

[Coast]

Right just spoke to my neighbour whose got weather measuring equipment in his back garden. Right now the temp is 26degrees, 60% humidity, CAPE of 600 and LI of -1.

Sounds a bit amiss there somewhere. Isle of Grain weather station up the road from you has:

http://www.iogweather.co.uk/

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Yeh I thought the temp sounded a tad high as well. But a privately owned station i check in Chatham is 25.4C soooooo.

Lauren I'm by Strood Academy

[ZONE 51]

I have been reading with interest! all very exciting and Nicks storm forecast is exciting a chance for most to get some action!

just to note those in my area or southeast we have mostly clear hazy cirrus skys, very warm and humid, our action arrives tonight, the evening sky should start to reveal the signs, i expect rows of Cas(sharp lines of small bubblies) and floccus(balls of wool or sheep) to line the evening skys, after this i would be looking with great interest at French imports tonight, i would say around 4-7 hours after the signs they should arrive on our shores, this is a thundery plume which brings storms with frequent lightning activity and also visible lightning activity

[Chris.R]

The metoffice have no mention of thunder in the NW for the rest of the weekend now! We shall see.

[Jane Louise]

I have just noticed the Met Office too grrrrr. The MO has said a dry evening on many occasions and they've mostly been wrong Don't worry people, it'll be fine I promise lol. Michael Fish , Nick F and netweather have it spot on.

This site is looking good:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #025

ISSUED: 1400UTC, FRIDAY 6TH MAY 2011

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHERN IRELAND

SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

WALES

MIDLANDS

NORTHERN ENGLAND

SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1400UTC FRIDAY 6TH MAY UNTIL 2300UTC ON SATURDAY 7TH MAY 2011.

UNSTABLE WARM AIR ADVECTING NORTH IN THE VICINTY OF THE COLD FRONT

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTS...TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

USING A BLEND OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS EIRE AND NORTHERN IRELAND MAY BE STRENGTHENED BY UPPER SHORTWAVING AND AN ORGANISING SHEAR PROFILE. LOW LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO RISK HERE. LATE FRIDAY AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHWEST OF ENGLAND ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THERE EXISTS A MODERATE HAIL RISK WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. SATURDAY LATE MORNING ONWARDS CONVECTION WILL INITIATE WALES AND MIDLANDS AS THE UPPER JET TAKES EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH, THIS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY BUT FURTHER NORTH MATURE CELLS MAY BECOME STRONGER WITHIN A SHEAR PROFILE FAVOURABLE FOR STRONG GUSTS AND POSSIBILITIES FOR TORNADOES. LATE SATURDAY STRONG STORMS MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH COAST CONTINUING NORTHWARD AS THE RENEWED COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED REGULARLY OR UPGRADED.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Lynxus]

Gotta love the smell of convection on a friday afternoon hhehe.

its certainly starting to pick up now down south. Lets just hope that they make it across the channel at least 1/2 alive!

[Lauren]

My garden is a big suntrap so that may explain my neighbours high readings.

[andymusic]

Which areas are currently most favourable to see any thunderstorms??

USSSSSSSSSSS - COME ON WALES!!!!!!!

[Thundery Shower]

Ok guys check the latest metoffice invent radar, looks promising.

[andymusic]

Only Ireland in the frame according to this map by Paul Knightley at TORRO, but read the last paragraph!

Shame he got the date wrong - It's Friday The 6TH OF MAY

[Thundery Shower]

http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html check the latest lightning activity, just entering the channel, lets hope this happens,

[DeepSnow]

USSSSSSSSSSS - COME ON WALES!!!!!!!

Yeah its good, im just worried being in south wales I am too far south for the most part? going by the netweather storm forecast!

Edited May 6, 2011 by DeepSnow

[Guest]

Nice lightning link there

I might travel down from Scarborough tomorrow afternoon if storms have broken out in central and northern areas - as is currently forecast, I'll be risking it staying up here all weekend that's for sure!. I'll be radar watching tonight and hoping things go to plan for those further south - good luck

Yeah its good, im just worried being in south wales I am too far south for the most part? going by the netweather storm forecast!

Maybe for tomorrow's activity yes, but don't rule anything out tonight.

Edited May 6, 2011 by Ari

[ZONE 51]

Yeah its good, im just worried being in south wales I am too far south for the most part? going by the netweather storm forecast!

c

close to the risk level one - but you are in the storm risk box at least! all areas included inside the black lined zone on Nicks chart are at risk of thunderstorms..

[Neilsouth]

I do chuckle at how people are relying on certain models to predict the thunderstorms, OH THE EAST IS GOING TO MISS OUT ACCORDING TO NAE!. So let me guess this straight this model can accuratly predict where any storm is likely to form?. Torro, Estofex, netweather they can all get it wrong when it comes to thunderstorms as much as forecasting when snow showers are about to hit!. Sure all the models might be right this time round but NO model can predict every single time where and when a storm will form.

So please people, stick to nowcasting get a rough idea from all these forecasts but they are not spot on accurate

[DeepSnow]

Thanks guys, I have some hope now for the next day or two, its gotten cloudy here now, hope that doesn't damage our chances!

Oh and sorry if I have annoyed anyone by going on too much, still new and learning

Edited May 6, 2011 by DeepSnow

[Marcus_surfer]

Hoping for something thundery later...that rain doesnt look like pushing eastwards (Near SW Ireland). 20.5C, after a max of 21.5C, low 11.5C.

[tomp456]

just to confirm..

the south east sussex/kent etc will miss out on the storms?

[Neilsouth]

just to confirm..

the south east sussex/kent etc will miss out on the storms?

I'll say again

We don't know yet!, Keep checking on the day and watching france

[Guest]

I do chuckle at how people are relying on certain models to predict the thunderstorms, OH THE EAST IS GOING TO MISS OUT ACCORDING TO NAE!. So let me guess this straight this model can accuratly predict where any storm is likely to form?. Torro, Estofex, netweather they can all get it wrong when it comes to thunderstorms as much as forecasting when snow showers are about to hit!. Sure all the models might be right this time round but NO model can predict every single time where and when a storm will form.

So please people, stick to nowcasting get a rough idea from all these forecasts but they are not spot on accurate

I think most of us know this. However for me at least I just enjoy passing the time before the supposed storms reading the different interweb sources. I'm as guilty as anyone and I'll post if I see that www.imbystorms.lol has a lightning symbol above my house. Don't stop people enjoying the build-up to these events!

[Coast]

just to confirm..

the south east sussex/kent etc will miss out on the storms?

Not sure yet - you are just going to have to wait and see!!!! Nothing set in stone until it hits you or misses. Pull up a chair in front of your favourite radar and lightning detectors and follow the progress until it gets close enough to see out of the window. Like all forecasts they are only a guess. Some are very good guesses and some are not so good!!!

[Guest]

just to confirm..

the south east sussex/kent etc will miss out on the storms?

Met Office forecast says heavy and possibly thundery rain tonight for all southeastern counties. Keep the faith and stick to these forums and radars/reports etc!