Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Neilsouth]

Copyright MVH on Two

It's a tricky setup is this given that there are not only potential trough features but clearly frontal systems as well slowly pushing in from the W...

To be honest I don't think today will deliver anything of any significance. There could well be some scattered heavy showers this afternoon and there is an area of higher vorticity which does spill up out of France, which may well bring something more significant but during the overnight period.

My main interest would be on the following;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

The 'main event' in my opinion is during the latter stages of Saturday and overnight into Sunday. This is the main breakdown and hence this is when the risk of convective activity is most likely. Clearly there is a marked trough evident now ahead of the surface fronts pushing in from the W, so if anything is going to go with a 'bang' then I expect that it will be during the course of Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday. Initial thunderstorms may well organise into more persistent and heavy zones of thundery rain. The ingredients are there (as the lad posted on the previous page) for more organised convective activity due to wind shear and helicity.

Time will tell as ever but in my opinion thunderstorm forecasting is as difficult if not more than forecasting snowfall and it takes a whole array of ingredients to come together and in my opinion that is most likely later on Sat and into Sun, not really today.

Matt.

[anvilhead]

Morning all

http://www.wetter3.de/vertikal.html (GFS Atmosphere Slice viewer) - if you look at 50N, 18Z Today, the wind profiles show SE'ly backed surface flow and a nice curved hodograph with good upper air support - would be interested to hear what others think of supercell chances here, or maybe a back end mcs supercell? -

Cheers, Sam

I wuld go with MVH from TWO, and not my opinion all btw! Still, I'm hopeful for tinight

sam

[TEITS]

Seems the forecast is relatively straight forward.

Very little occuring during this afternoon but later on this evening into the overnight period a band of more organised storms could push N. These storms slowly clearing in the morning followed by a short period of warm sunshine before more storms may develop. Another more organised band of storms may push N during late saturday night.

A word of caution though. I've seen these set ups before but rather than experiencing decent storms all thats occured is torrential rain with the odd rumble of thunder. Also Kent, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex look to miss out.

[Paul]

Storm forecast issued By Nick F:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Stuart]

all looking good for me on sat hope nick right about his forecast :D

[Neilsouth]

A word of caution though. I've seen these set ups before but rather than experiencing decent storms all thats occured is torrential rain with the odd rumble of thunder. Also Kent, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex look to miss out.

Now where have i heard that before hmmm, kent always gets the likely to miss out from someone and they get a big surprise!. Hopefully i'm right

[Wivenswold]

Seems the forecast is relatively straight forward.

Very little occuring during this afternoon but later on this evening into the overnight period a band of more organised storms could push N. These storms slowly clearing in the morning followed by a short period of warm sunshine before more storms may develop. Another more organised band of storms may push N during late saturday night.

A word of caution though. I've seen these set ups before but rather than experiencing decent storms all thats occured is torrential rain with the odd rumble of thunder. Also Kent, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex look to miss out.

What is this assessment based upon?

Do you have data that confirms that eastern counties will miss out or is this just pessimism on your part?

[VillagePlank]

Only has a quick look, but although the odd rumble cannot be ruled out, it seems to me that if any storms approach, say, from Brighton north to M4 and everywhere East and South of that point will miss out. A classic watch the storms cross the channel and die out as they make landfall.

(Unless the land is about 27C tonight - which is unlikely)

[Coast]

Only has a quick look, but although the odd rumble cannot be ruled out, it seems to me that if any storms approach, say, from Brighton north to M4 and everywhere East and South of that point will miss out. A classic watch the storms cross the channel and die out as they make landfall.

I think I might just be on the outer Eastern edge of the potential, with places further West and North doing better it seems. I'm also more inclined to tomorrow afternoon/night than tonight, but will still enjoy watching the lightning detectors.

[sbiggs]

First time ofthe year I've felt it's worth signing in. Maybe I'm not hardcore enough. Noticed quite alot of activity already over the Atlantic west of France.

[Thundery Shower]

today looks promising, been checking the european lightning activity already strikes are being detected to the NW corner of france, the Storms (2 cells) moving in a N/NE direction.

[knocker]

Just the 0600z chart.

[TEITS]

What is this assessment based upon?

Do you have data that confirms that eastern counties will miss out or is this just pessimism on your part?

NAE precip accumulation chart suggests this.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/05/06/basis06/ukuk/rsum/11050806_0606.gif

The NAE has been rather consistent at suggesting the extreme E parts could miss out.

[VillagePlank]

I think I might just be on the outer Eastern edge of the potential, with places further West and North doing better it seems. I'm also more inclined to tomorrow afternoon/night than tonight, but will still enjoy watching the lightning detectors.

There's an outside chance that the line may orient itself in a further NE vector and move in faster - but I don't see it to be honest.

[sparky1972]

morning all, here is hoping for some storms here over night, with a 6 week old baby who likes to be awake all night some lighting to watch will help pass the time. lol. can someone tell me which sites are best to look at to see where current storms and lighting strikes are, many thanks.

[Thundery Shower]

morning all, here is hoping for some storms here over night, with a 6 week old baby who likes to be awake all night some lighting to watch will help pass the time. lol. can someone tell me which sites are best to look at to see where current storms and lighting strikes are, many thanks.

im currently using this one http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

[sparky1972]

im currently using this one http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

thanks, i will look at that one.

[Thundery Shower]

thanks, i will look at that one.

or this http://en.allmetsat.com/images/lightning-europe.php

[Chris.R]

now the cloud and rain have quickly cleared away and the temp is rocketing up. Currently 16.8c after being static at 13.2c half an hour ago. Feeling very humid and thundery with the odd cloud around.

[NUT]

Just subscribed to NW Extra Radar for a month in anticipation of the weekend's events to come (Not really a fan of thunder infact I am rather petrified of storms if the truth be known) but this will help me to prepare

Edited May 6, 2011 by NUT

[Lynxus]

Wow, The amount of sferics from down south for this time of day is a great sign!

Come on!!!

[Lauren]

No storms again for me according to the charts when will I get my first!!!?

I know, it was all looking good and all the forecasts were predicting storms and then they all go. I better get rewarded for my patience.

[Thundery Shower]

Wow, The amount of sferics from down south for this time of day is a great sign!

Come on!!!

i know it's looking good in the bay of biscay atm, hopeing the intensity of the storms build as temps rise

[philglossop]

i know it's looking good in the bay of biscay atm, hopeing the intensity of the storms build as temps rise

Fingers crossed they make it across the channel to us. Its been years since a decent storm!

[Andy Bown]

Hmm, far cloudier than anticipated this morning with layers of Cirrus and Altocumulus and even some lower Stratocumulus. The hazy sunshine is warm and

humidity quite noticable - mainly due to its' absence recently!

Only has a quick look, but although the odd rumble cannot be ruled out, it seems to me that if any storms approach, say, from Brighton north to M4 and everywhere East and South of that point will miss out. A classic watch the storms cross the channel and die out as they make landfall.

(Unless the land is about 27C tonight - which is unlikely)

No because the storms are more likely to be mid-high based and therefore far far more likely to survive the Channel crossing. Also, if they do die to

a certain extent, they'll quite likely reinvigorate once the cloud starts moving over land from the South coast.

Lynxus : if you're viewing Meteocentre it's had an error most of this week with lightning in the same place every day!