Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Chris.R]

just had a torrential shower here. Think I'm in a good place for this afternoon but I have a question. What will cause these cells to develop this afternoon? I have looked at the GFS and it showes no instability or SBCAPE at all. Thanks.

[Static Prevails]

Today has potential. There are some very interesting clouds passing by, so that already shows hopefully more chance of something thundery. I think today I'll just see what happens. If not, I'll keep an eye out for tomorrow.

[Rustynailer]

This weekends storms were good, at their best on Friday night into Saturday morning. The rumbles were still going on through Saturday morning here. Saturday evening we got plenty of rain and a clap of thunder around 1900hrs. I thoroughly enjoyed watching the events unfold both through my window(glad to be inside for once in bad weather!!)and on the Internet. I only do Net-weather forum, once again I enjoyed the activity here. I especially like AJpoosharks joke, things like that make me giggle so much. If people get sad or stressed about the weather...well I think that is amusing too, reading others frustrated rantings can be immensely funny.

I contacted Shaun Wheeler about his radar. He does the the lot voluntarily, he is doing his best, but as his is the probably the most popular amateur radar used when storms threaten the UK from the Continent, the South and the South West etc'(my words not his), finding that he has bandwidth issues does not surprise me in the least. I wont link to IoW radar, as we(weather watchers in general) used most of his monthly band width on Friday night He is ranked no 1 here http://www.martynhicks.co.uk/weather/topsites/ by a long score.

I like what he does, especially for us storm fans.

I am still in shock at Fridays storm, its in my top ten, some of the lightning "stuck in my mind vividly",it was like this (see attached picture) from ages ago when I lived all the way over the other side of the IoW. 26th July 2006

I better stop rambling on...I have work to do in the garden, the nice wet garden...

Russ.

[Neilsouth]

Well unlike some, i'm going to admit i was totaly wrong about the storms, it just didn't happen and the local conditions said otherwise. We had far more sun than most as it was sunny all afternoon, temps topped out at 23C!. Shame but there we go

[Nick L]

Plenty of convection going on to my North/Northwest. Could definitely have some beefy showers later I suspect.

[shuggee]

Liam on BBC News Channel keeps speaking about thunder again...

[NL]

Nice bright echo on the NW 5min radar heading towards T&W currently just SW of Darlington. Think we up here in the NE bode well for 'stormier' weather than of late as the pesky surface Sou'easterly is starting to veer SW pushing the temp a bit higher than has been along the NE coast the temperature did not rise above 15°C all day yesterday..

[johnholmes]

By the way, John Holmes was using an old sounding (00Z), so those temps. were not required to initiate convection-- those infact turned out to be somewhat lower.

I beg to differ, I used the two LATEST available ACTUAL ascents when I posted and used my forecast experience to suggest what temps and dewpoints would be required, I stand by what I posted.

[TheToastPeople]

had no storms watsoever last night, infact all year. rained like mad last night while i was walking home from the pub! Today actualy looks stormy there are huge clouds reaching for the sky so maybe today... lol

Also whats happend to sat24??

Edited May 8, 2011 by Daveweiser

[Alex95]

I think its time to forget yesterday now because whatever we say isnt going to change the outcome it was!

Today and tomorrow is a classic Thundery shower situation with Wales, West Midlands and Northern England (Esp NW England) in the firing line today and the same plus some other Eastern areas tomorrow.

I think NW England and Wales will see the most convection, but places further east are better placed for some thunder this time as the showers will have developed more by the time they move eastwards. That will be especially true tomorrow with the best conditions expected from Yorkshire to Northumberland.

[Stuart]

Liam on BBC News Channel keeps speaking about thunder again...

What part

[The PIT]

I beg to differ, I used the two LATEST available ACTUAL ascents when I posted and used my forecast experience to suggest what temps and dewpoints would be required, I stand by what I posted.

and sir you were correct.

[Alex95]

Nice bright echo on the NW 5min radar heading towards T&W currently just SW of Darlington. Think we up here in the NE bode well for 'stormier' weather than of late as the pesky surface Sou'easterly is starting to veer SW pushing the temp a bit higher than has been along the NE coast the temperature did not rise above 15°C all day yesterday..

Often the only storms we get all year are from showery SW'lies - often the more 'traditional' setups (ie spanish plume) don't affect the NE. The 6th July 2009 was the best example; a spectacular thunderstorm struck at around 1:30pm with loads of forked lightning and a little hail.

[sn0wman]

Monday looks really good for Scotland!

[The PIT]

I worded that incorrectly. Obviously they were "current" at the time you posted them, but the 12Z soundings made it more clear what was required to initiate convection. Certainly temps. into the mid-20s C were not needed.

They were here otherwise the chances of storms being around would have been greater rather than the zero we got.

What part

I saw it earlier and yes he did mention them. Some bright echoes on the radar already. Just need the ones to the south of us to wake up.

Edited May 8, 2011 by The PIT

[Alex95]

The sun has just came out, and now that the fog has cleared I can see quite a bit of convection to my west.

[The PIT]

Just explain to me with good enough reason why you thought yesterday's forecasts were "over the top". Did you look in-depth at the model output for several days leading up yesterday? Did you take all factors in account? Did you bother to look at all?

By the way, John Holmes was using an old sounding (00Z), so those temps. were not required to initiate convection-- those infact turned out to be somewhat lower.

I look at them on the day as things change very rapidly as you should know so there's no point looking a week or two days ahead for example.

[Rustynailer]

Todays ESTOFEX :-

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 08 May 2011 06:00 to Mon 09 May 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 08 May 2011 04:54

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

...British Isles...

An upper level vort-max is forecast to move across the British Isles from SSW to NNE during the late morning / early afternoon. In its vicinity, some few hundred J/kg CAPE should be available. 0-6 km shear is in order of 30 - 35 m/s, around 15 m/s shear in the lowest 3 km, but no significant LL shear and 0-3 km SRH are forecast. As mixed layer LCL heights tend to increase around the afternoon, there will be a threat of isolated severe wind gusts. Compared to the day before, severe weather seems to be much less likely and no threat level is issued despite the chance of isolated severe wind gusts and / or an isolated tornado.

Certainly interesting weather to be had today. 15% chance of thunder over most of the British isles too looking at their map. http://www.estofex.org/

[johnholmes]

I worded that incorrectly. Obviously they were "current" at the time you posted them, but the 12Z soundings made it more clear what was required to initiate convection. Certainly temps. into the mid-20s C were not needed.

Sorry to start what may be a silly discussion but I posted 2 ascents and pointed the reader to the fact that local storms in this area were unlikely, re T and TD but that the storms IF they occurred were going to be transported from France, hence why I showed the ascent for Brest.

In these situations the probability of an actual storm are often less than 50%. Looking back at the 'sflocs' (lightnig discharges)reported on NW that would seem about right. Most of them were west of this area and nearer to where the jet, mentioned in other forecasts, TORRO etc and from Nick F, suggested it would be. The idea was to TRY and show in a SIMPLE fashion what was possible using the latest data. I have to confess at not looking at the 12z ascents, I'll go and dig them out now and come back with my idea of local ascent on Watnall and Brest-you may be correct in your post that lower T/Td were required, although you did not specify which ascent.

back in a few minutes.

sorry but the Wyoming centre that stores data is not available on line at the moment, so cannot do as promised; anyone know of a site with 07110 and 03354 upper air data for yesterday please?

Edited May 8, 2011 by johnholmes

[NL]

Often the only storms we get all year are from showery SW'lies - often the more 'traditional' setups (ie spanish plume) don't affect the NE. The 6th July 2009 was the best example; a spectacular thunderstorm struck at around 1:30pm with loads of forked lightning and a little hail.

Most of the time but not exclusively 'plumes' often head North easterly only to reach Humberside then trundle off into the North Sea.

Skies clearing quite readily here now but the surface winds are still from a SE direction pegging the temperature back at only 12°C, dew point is rising though up to 11.3°C.. the atmosphere around here is pretty much saturated with humidity at over 90%

[Cloud 10]

Could it be the north-east's turn for some thunder action today?

Some bright echoes on the radar seem to say "yes"

[Alex95]

Most of the time but not exclusively 'plumes' often head North easterly only to reach Humberside then trundle off into the North Sea.

Skies clearing quite readily here now but the surface winds are still from a SE direction pegging the temperature back at only 12°C, dew point is rising though up to 11.3°C.. the atmosphere around here is pretty much saturated with humidity at over 90%

We're up to 15°C here already, the North Sea's influence mustn't be affecting places this far inland again.

[Alex95]

Those thunderstorms are building Northwards - it looks jet black on the SW horizon now from the loft window

[Alex95]

Are those cells in County Durham electrified?

[Kain]

Why are people still bickering about bloody yesterday? Yesterday is gone, end of. nothing happened get over it. This constant sniping at people is getting on me nerves.